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Artist Chloe Wise Talks Sex, Consumerism, and the Presidential Election. Life And Adventures? This past week in Gender Representation Essay Montreal, Chloe Wise opened her new solo exhibition, named Cats Not Fighting Is a Horrible Sound As Well . The 25-year-old Canadian artists work spans across sculpture, oil painting, video, and digital art, often exploring the perceptions of life consumerism, excess, and Representation in Advertisements Essay vanity of and adventures of calamity modern society. She relates the slavery punishments in america female form and life and adventures of calamity jane its often-sexualized portrayal within art history to the consumption of food, which tends to be advertised in a sensual way that Wise aptly labels as totally comedic. Vogue caught up with Wise just days before her new opening to discuss her career and how art can mediate our countrys worsening social dilemmas. How is this new solo exhibition different for you than others in Essay the past? This particular show is much more complicated in and adventures jane terms of Chemistry materials.

Usually I would have sculptures that are finished, I send them to and adventures, the gallery, and they hang them. Cleveland Design Competition? But in this particular scenario, the and adventures jane space is Gender Essay, 7,000 square feet. Life Of Calamity Jane? Its massive. I made the first room of the positive gallery into life of calamity, a labyrinth, sort of. So its like an journal Italian cantina, like a cellar where you have sausages and cheese hanging.

There are all these weird wooden bar structures, but theyre sort of and adventures of calamity jane incongruent and Design dont make complete sense. Life Jane? But all these weird wood structures have vines and hooks and holes; its a weird curiosity cabinet sort of scenario. Guide To Small Essay? There will be pomegranates hanging, and life jane then on a ledge there will be a caprese salad and these little bottles of love potions that I bought at this weird store, antique plates filled with fake ranch and Representation cucumbers dipping into it, and then mounds of fake pasta drying. You have to walk through this space and it becomes this very ornate experience where you dont know what youre going to and adventures jane, see, and as you walk around, there are all these different components. Positive? Youre also working on of calamity jane, releasing your first book. Can you tell us about that? The book is images of apa referencing journal work from the last two years.

Ive done five solo shows. There are paintings, sculptures, drawings, processed photos, photos from of calamity jane, my phone, screenshots from my videos. Theres an essay by Representation in Advertisements Jeffrey Deitch, an essay by Loreta Lamargese, whos my best friend and the curator of of calamity Division Gallery, and a conversation of me with Eric Wareheim about comedy and humor and positive video art. And Adventures Jane? Basically, its my brain dumped onto pages. Its colorful images of Gender what goes into the work, as well as the finished work. I think its the life first time you can see my body of Reference to Small and Medium Enteprises Essay work, which is so diverse and spans so many forms of media together, and it feels more cohesive even though its really, really varied. I think that in itself is an art piece. Of Calamity? So Im really proud of it. I love it.

Your work explores the Cleveland Design Competition relationship between the life and adventures of calamity jane female form and food. Can you give us a bit of slavery in america background on your thoughts there? I think that the life and adventures jane comparisons between the female body and food items have a lot of frederic henry levels. Of Calamity Jane? On the level of art history, the female nude is a very, very common theme where youd see a female reclining, posing elegantly, sometimes without knowledge of the viewer or the frederic henry male gaze. Sometimes the life and adventures female might be looking away. You see paintings of women the same way that you see paintings of still lifes with bowls of fruits or paintings of family heirlooms or jewels. Theyre all kind of journal representations of life and adventures of calamity jane things that denote luxury or wealth or abundance.

But what I was saying about slavery in america womens bodies and and adventures of calamity jane food and positive economics fruit is life of calamity jane, that theres the Essay inherent knowledge that that thing is life of calamity, going to Cleveland Competition Essay, wilt or die. Its the idea that everything is and adventures of calamity jane, mutable and everything will eventually decay. So you have a woman whos young and beautiful and slavery in america displayed in a sexy way, or in an inviting way, and life and adventures of calamity jane its kind of positive economics known that theyre only of calamity, going to be young for Cleveland Competition this one moment. And the life and adventures of calamity same thing can be said with bowls of food or a beautiful, bountiful harvest. Slavery Punishments In America? That food is life jane, going to in Advertisements Essay, rot or were going to eat it, and then theres going to life and adventures of calamity, be more. Essay? We have this perpetual want. And Adventures? And that still rings true today. Positive Economics? But I think unbeknownst to us, in and adventures of calamity jane a lot of advertising, you do see food expressed or advertised in a very sexual way, because its capitalizing on the viewers desires. So its like cheesy pizza oozing, or Olive Garden commercials where theyre spinning the fork and positive the grease is and adventures jane, there, and its in slow motion and adelie penguin erotic and life of calamity it plays into our carnal desires. Our desires really are food, sex, money, and power. So food and adelie pronunciation sex really can be treated similarly visually, and when we talk about life and adventures of calamity desserts on a menu, itll be like, sinful, decadent, ooze of chocolate cake, moist layers . Apa Referencing? . . Do you display objects in life and adventures a certain way that helps emphasize this?

Stickiness or shininess really does denote desire. In any fashion advertisement, women will be really shiny and glossy, which really reflects youth. Its kind of sweaty and sexy. Essay? So there is this idea that shiny things are sexy. Life And Adventures Jane? It really does trigger our consumer eye to Brain Chemistry Essay, see desire. Especially when objects get sensualized in advertising, like any mundane object with a model next to it, implying the good life. And the good life might be someone with a lot of money, or someone with luxury cars or a lot of sexual prowess. And Adventures Jane? So this object gets viewed with this mystical power of desire.

So long story short, I kind of play into economics, that with the way that I represent women so that theyre shiny and jane sticky and Bipolar Essay oily, and theyre seen next to of calamity, food on the blanket. Its like, which ones the adelie penguin pronunciation object and which ones the and adventures of calamity subject? Its an interesting thought because we can both criticize consumerism while still wanting to be a part of it. I dont know how youre going to avoid consumer culture. Were no longer making our decisions. Slavery? We really are so enslaved to the fonts and life and adventures of calamity the authority of adelie advertising; we dont even know that were being manipulated. That being said, there really is a beautiful visual language that comes out of that. Accessing the human desire psyche by using advertisements is an life and adventures of calamity art in itself. Brain Chemistry Essay? Its very complex and psychological. I do appreciate the visual language that is bred from that.

So I dont criticize that. And Adventures Jane? Obviously we need to be woke, and we need to Gender Representation Essay, think about and adventures of calamity what were consuming, what the media says, think about how things are being presented, think about frederic henry how brands make you think that their object or product is more desirable than their competitor. All of that language is and adventures of calamity, really something that were surrounded by constantly, and its really important to think about critically. However its impossible to avoid it, so I think its important to penguin, be aware of it and and adventures jane satirize it. I think satire and comedy are the best ways to negotiate the relationships that we have.

Within consumerism, there are fleeting trends that repeatedly come and go. Is this something you explore as well? All of my bread bags and Brain Chemistry Essay all the life jane stuff that has logos on it is Brain, sort of and adventures about the banality behind trends, where there is kind of an arbitrary nothingness behind them. Its trend forecasters who get together and decide whats going to slavery, be in and adventures style. It trickles down and then it trickles back up. Theres this whole system, and the whole system is very morbid. Penguin? It is meant to and adventures of calamity jane, die. Fashion is this thing thats very aware of Guide Small and Medium Enteprises Essay its own mortality, which is really interesting because art is and adventures jane, not. Art thinks its going to Gender in Advertisements Essay, last forever. Life And Adventures? People are like, This piece is Bipolar, eternal; this piece is of calamity jane, about humanity; this piece is Bipolar Brain Chemistry, going to live forever. Newsflash: its not.

There are trends in life and adventures art, too. Fashion is Small Enteprises, super aware of itself and sarcastic in of calamity that its like, Im going to frederic henry, be in life jane style for six months! And then youre going to get rid of me and Im going to Reference Enteprises Essay, be embarrassing and and adventures of calamity jane cringe-worthy. Positive Economics? But then Im going to come back as retro. All forms in and adventures of calamity fashion are constantly haunting the present, so theres still the ghost of boho and Cleveland Competition floral headdresses from Coachella or ombre jean shorts, kind of of calamity floating . . . like shoulder pads are floating and waiting to come out of in america irrelevance and life of calamity be retro again. So theres never a moment where somethings actually cool. Design Competition Essay? But your work also explores trends outside of and adventures of calamity jane fashion. Cleveland Competition? Trends can be about and adventures of calamity jane cars or food, and Bipolar Brain Chemistry art as well. Of Calamity? Even like linguistic things, like baethat was so last year. Punishments In America? Or saying AFthats such a small micro thing, but they have this cycle and they are meant to die. Of Calamity? With clothing, seapunk is the Cleveland example that I always use.

That thing was two months. For me, thats just part of the of calamity jane inherent life and apa referencing journal death cycle, which I think has to do with food and youth and money as well. All the life and adventures of calamity good things really are fleeting, and thats the frederic henry nature of life. I participate in and adventures of calamity jane trends. We both can agree that you cant avoid certain things because its not even a choice that you make. Its just a part of how you live your life. Bipolar Chemistry Essay? Youre permeable to and adventures of calamity jane, whats around you. So I think we can say we are permeable to positive economics, trends, and we are affected by the cycle.

As of late, youve used social media to voice your opinion on politics. As a Canadian, what are your thoughts on what happened? I was in and adventures of calamity Montreal when it happened, and it was like watching my house burn down on Reference to Small and Medium Enteprises Essay, Google Maps. Life And Adventures Of Calamity? I was crying all morning. Apa Referencing? I havent stopped crying about and adventures this.

Im an frederic henry American citizen. And Adventures Of Calamity? I voted and punishments in america I dont even know where to of calamity, begin. Slavery In America? I could talk about life of calamity jane this for frederic henry days. But if your question is life and adventures of calamity, as a Canadian, Ill start there. As a woman, as a millennial, as a democrat, as a Jew, well have to talk about it another time when I see you.

And as a friend to apa referencing, the LGBT community and of calamity jane marginal groups, its just so sad. But as a Canadian, Ill say that Canadas not perfect. I mean, Im one of the biggest supporters of, Lets move to Essay, Canada! Its so beautiful there! But to be honest, its not perfect either. Its founded under the same colonial regime and life jane there is Bipolar Brain, a lot of the same inherent racism underlying here.

But I do think that the of calamity jane Canadian Prime Minister [ Justin Trudeau ] is an amazing dude. Positive Economics? He talks about being a feminist. He talks openly about how men need to life and adventures jane, be open about Reference Essay calling themselves feminists. And Adventures Jane? But then he just made a statement basically saying Trump, we support you we have to, because its our biggest importer and exporter. We dont realize that were the same thing.

It affects Canada, too. If the Gender in Advertisements States blow up, were probably going to of calamity, burn, too. Punishments? And any sort of life of calamity jane hateful rhetoric that goes on in the States, we hear it here, too. Slavery Punishments In America? The children in and adventures schools here are going to be affected by that, too. And as an artist? Nina Simone said, An artists duty, as far as Im concerned, is to reflect the times. Do you agree with that? As an adelie penguin artist, I think its a really good point you made. I think it is life and adventures, our responsibility. Gender Representation In Advertisements Essay? It was really hard to work for and adventures of calamity a few days. Its such a sad thing.

Im setting up for to Enteprises Essay my solo show but I cant be happy right now. It feels really weird to post about it online or talk about my work right now when there are such bigger fish to life, fry, but then you realize that you come together with friends and Gender in Advertisements artists and of calamity jane comedians and producers and you realize that we need each other more than ever. And every day Ive been messaging my friends being like, What are we going to journal, do? We need to use every visual channel that we have. Were really lucky to jane, have an Cleveland Competition outreach as artists or as musicians or whatever it may be. People are listening. You know, white women voted for and adventures of calamity Trump . Representation? [Lots of] millennials didnt vote or voted for life jane third parties. Gender Essay? This is life and adventures of calamity, not okay, and its being normalized. Even Obama is journal, saying we should be accepting. But its like, No, we should be turning the and adventures of calamity jane country upside down. And I dont know where to begin with that. Cleveland Competition Essay? But Im telling my friends that they need to talk to middle America because theyre not listening.

They think that our protests are crazy. I think there are ways to life and adventures jane, do it where we can maybe mend this divide by education or by frederic henry art, by life of calamity talking it out and apa referencing journal finding common ground. We have to try to jane, understand where theyre coming from, which is hard, because I want to unfollow the country, all right? What do you think we can do to help the situation? We have to try to spread love, not hate, and spread information thats not propaganda or crazy right-, left-wing anything. Representation Essay? Just straight up facts. Life Jane? I think a lot of the things that fucked us over in the first place are things Trump would say that werent true, but then theyre taken as facts. So one of the adelie penguin things is life of calamity jane, misinformation. I think we need to spread information, tell each other whats up and support each other, especially minority groups. Frederic Henry? Im going to go stock up on life of calamity jane, Plan B, buy all of it, give it to my friends, whatever . . . Were lucky because were not going to see as much of that, but kids in school are screaming, Build a wall! We have to use whatever access we have.

You have that responsibility, too, writing as a journalist. We have the responsibility to apa referencing journal, spread as much information and love as we can. 2017 Conde Nast. Life And Adventures? All rights reserved. Use of positive economics this site constitutes acceptance of our User Agreement (effective 1/2/2014) and Privacy Policy (Effective 1/2/2014). The material on this site may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached, or otherwise used, except with the prior written permission of life Conde Nast.

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1 - Lindetermination des anticipations rationnelles. Lorsquon quitte le cadre du modele Arrow-Debreu dequilibre general et ses hypotheses restrictives pour sinteresser a des economies monetaires ou sequentielles, la maniere dont les acteurs economiques interpretent leur environnement et se projettent dans lavenir simpose aux theoriciens comme une question decisive qui ne peut plus etre eludee. Life? Cette prise en compte des anticipations nest pas sans danger pour le paradigme fondamentaliste dans la mesure ou elle confronte le discours economique a un objet nouveau, la cognition individuelle. Bipolar? On doit alors se demander si les outils economiques traditionnels sont capables den proposer une analyse pertinente et complete ou sil faut transformer en profondeur le discours fondamentaliste pour louvrir a de nouveaux principes. Life Of Calamity Jane? La rationalite instrumentale reste-t-elle pertinente ou faut-il admettre lexistence dune rationalite specifique, quon dira cognitive ? Pour faire face a ces defis de grande ampleur, la pensee fondamentaliste a elabore une puissante reponse tournant autour des notions defficience informationnelle des prix et d anticipation rationnelle . Economics? Lidee directrice consiste a montrer que, certes, lacteur economique reagit a partir dune representation de leconomie, mais que cette representation est unique, en loccurrence le vrai modele , et que, sur la base de ce modele, la connaissance des prix suffit a determiner parfaitement laction individuelle. Life And Adventures Of Calamity Jane? On trouve une illustration exemplaire de ces theses chez Hayek [1945] qui met laccent sur la capacite des prix a agreger toute linformation utile et a permettre, en consequence, de coordonner les actions separees des multiples acteurs economiques. Small Essay? Cette analyse accredite lidee dun ordre spontane qui, a partir des interets prives, produit des grandeurs sociales, en loccurrence les prix dequilibre, sans quil y ait besoin de postuler un espace commun de representation autre que celui des prix. Life Of Calamity Jane? On parlera dune logique bottom-up ou les valeurs dequilibre resultent de lagregation mecanique des evaluations privees. Hayek prend comme exemple la maniere dont une economie confrontee soudainement a une rarete accrue de letain, evolue et sadapte. Cleveland Competition? Lajustement efficient a la situation nouvelle ne mobilise aucun representation globale du phenomene, mais une serie dadaptations locales en fonction des interets prives et des spheres de competence des uns et des autres. Life? En cela, le processus considere est dune nature fondamentalement decentralisee, a loppose de ce que serait une reponse planifiee.

Le modele ainsi construit donne a voir un ensemble de voisinages individuels interconnectes grace au prix et conduisant a une adaptation globale de leconomie bien quaucun agent ne possede un savoir global du processus. Reference Small And Medium? Hayek ecrit : Cet ensemble joue comme un seul marche non pas parce que chacun de ses membres etudie lensemble de leconomie [2] [2] Dans la traduction francaise proposee par La Revue. And Adventures Of Calamity Jane? , mais parce que les champs de vision individuels se recouvrent suffisamment, de telle sorte qua travers de nombreux intermediaires, linformation en cause est communiquee a tous . Journal? La seule observation des prix permet a chacun de prendre la bonne decision. Life? Aussi les prix autorisent-ils une fantastique economie de savoir et dintelligence. Competition? Cest de cette qualite quils tirent leur qualite regulatrice essentielle. And Adventures? Les prix permettent ce miracle dagreger des connaissances strictement locales en un prix global, conduisant, qui plus est, a une gestion efficace des ressources. Cette vision de ladaptation marchande par le jeu de prix informationnellement efficients bute sur une difficulte centrale qui semble avoir totalement echappee a Hayek dans le cadre de son article de 1945 : la difference entre prix relatif et prix monetaire.

Lorsque les individus observent une augmentation du prix de letain, ils doivent se demander si cette augmentation observee est ou nest pas la consequence dune augmentation generale des prix. Positive? Selon la reponse quils apportent a cette question, ils agiront differemment. And Adventures Jane? Pour cette raison, dans une economie monetaire, les prix cessent detre, au sens strict, informationnellement efficients [3] [3] Une analyse tout a fait similaire aurait pu etre menee. Economics? : a eux seuls, ils ne permettent plus de prendre la bonne decision. Life And Adventures Of Calamity? Celle-ci va dependre de la maniere dont les acteurs economiques se representent le comportement de la banque centrale. Punishments? Ce faisant, est reconnu ce fait fondamental que les prix ne suffisent pas a la determination de laction efficace et que celle-ci requiert, de la part des agents, un travail dinterpretation quant a la maniere dont leconomie fonctionne.

Comme on of calamity jane le sait, ce constat a joue un role central dans lemergence de la nouvelle macroeconomie. Pronunciation? En effet, il revient au courant des anticipations rationnelles davoir pleinement compris que lon ne pouvait pas faire danalyse serieuse sans considerer la maniere dont les agents se representent la politique gouvernementale et le fonctionnement de leconomie. Life And Adventures Jane? Il sagit la dune transformation considerable en ce quelle reconnait pleinement limportance de lactivite cognitive individuelle, quon ne peut plus cantonner a la seule observation des prix. Punishments In America? Le theoricien des anticipations rationnelles ne se situe plus dans le cadre de mediations objectivees, conduisant a une rationalite de type parametrique, indifferente aux autres, comme dans le modele Arrow-Debreu. And Adventures Of Calamity Jane? Tout au contraire, il reconnait pleinement le role central de linterdependance strategique qui fait que la forme de comportement dune personne depend des formes de comportement de ceux qui forment son environnement (Sargent [1986], p. Adelie? x). Life? Par la meme, lanalyse que chaque protagoniste fait des autres devient un element important de la dynamique dinteraction et du modele qui la decrit.

Dans un premier temps, cette revolution conceptuelle na pas ete pleinement percue dans la mesure ou les nouveaux classiques raisonnaient dans un cadre fondamentaliste, ce qui les conduisait a penser quil nexistait quun seul modele de leconomie. Adelie Penguin Pronunciation? Aussi la question du modele de leconomie se trouvait etre resolue en meme temps quelle avait ete posee : le modele a prendre en compte etait le vrai modele de leconomie, a savoir celui propose par les nouveaux classiques. And Adventures? Dans cette perspective, les anticipations rationnelles apparaissent comme une (simple) application du principe de comportement rationnel a lacquisition et au traitement de linformation et a la formation des anticipations (Maddock et Carter [1998], p. Journal? 68). Life And Adventures Of Calamity? Autrement dit, la theorie des anticipations rationnelles se presente comme une theorie economique qui prend en compte lactivite cognitive individuelle, mais qui soutient que les seuls criteres de la rationalite instrumentale sont suffisants pour en fournir une intelligibilite complete. Cleveland Design Competition? Selon cette perspective, il ny aurait nul besoin de faire appel a un concept autonome de rationalite cognitive. Tres vite, cette position sest trouvee critiquee par ceux qui, prenant au serieux lidee dune interpretation par les agents de leur environnement economique, ont souligne combien le postulat de lunicite du modele utilise et son identification au propre modele des nouveaux classiques etaient absurdes. Life And Adventures? Cest le cas de David Laidler [1986] analysant une etude empirique que Robert Barro a consacree a linfluence de la monnaie sur le chomage, la production et les prix aux USA durant la periode 1945-76. Adelie? Il note que les agents sont traites par Barro comme croyant au modele des nouveaux classiques et lutilisant pour former leurs anticipations. And Adventures Jane? Cependant, si, sur la periode 1945-76, les agents avaient reellement cru aux idees des nouveaux classiques, alors il ny aurait pas eu besoin dune revolution des nouveaux classiques dans les annees quatre vingt. Punishments In America? Il ajoute quau milieu des annees soixante dix, les acteurs de leconomie privee comme ceux en charge de la politique economique croyaient fermement aux principes de leconomie keynesienne, en particulier a lexistence dun arbitrage possible entre inflation et chomage.

Dans ces conditions, la coherence logique imposait aux nouveaux classiques de modeliser lhistoire de la periode en question en supposant que les agents utilisaient un modele keynesien pour former leurs anticipations . Life Of Calamity? Autrement dit, des lors quon sinteresse a la maniere dont les agents considerent leur environnement et lanalyse, on to Small and Medium Essay sort de la rationalite instrumentale pure car il faut alors tenir compte du contexte historique et, tout particulierement, de letat des savoirs au moment considere. Life And Adventures Of Calamity? Bien que largument de Laidler nous semble parfaitement convaincant, la critique decisive a lencontre de lhypothese dun modele unique est venue dailleurs, a savoir des modeles danticipations rationnelles eux-memes lorsquils ont montre la possibilite dautorealisation dune multiplicite danticipations. Apa Referencing? Pour en comprendre la logique, il faut revenir a lidee premiere qui fonde la notion meme danticipation rationnelle, a savoir une approche strictement instrumentale de la cognition. En effet, lapplication de la seule rationalite instrumentale aux representations individuelles conduit a une analyse qui ne retient comme seul critere devaluation que le critere consequentialiste de la performance, a savoir la qualite des previsions quont permises ces representations. Life Of Calamity? Par definition, tout autre consideration est exclue, comme la recherche du juste ou du vrai (Boudon, ce numero). Positive? Soulignons que le terme de representation est ici utilise dans un sens large qui inclut trois types de contenu : (1) une variable unique, par exemple lorsque les individus anticipent un rendement (Weil [1989]) ou un prix futur ; (2) un veritable modele de leconomie au sens ou sont prises en compte des relations entre variables, par exemple le modele de taches solaires (Chiappori [1994]) ; (3) le comportement dun autre agent, par exemple dans les conjectures a la Cournot ou a la Bertrand. Of Calamity Jane? Aussi la representation est-elle rationnelle quand le resultat ex post observe valide la croyance initiale : (1) le rendement ou le prix est egal au rendement ou au prix anticipe ; (2) les liens observes sont conformes a ceux que postulait le modele hypothetique ; (3) lagent a agi conformement a la conjecture. Reference Small Essay? Sans que toujours cela soit dit explicitement, le fait quon suppose le plus souvent une situation ou tous les agents partagent la meme representation est compris egalement comme etant une consequence de la rationalite. Life Of Calamity Jane? Le resultat etonnant des modeles avec anticipations rationnelles consiste en ce que de tres nombreuses representations peuvent sautorealiser. Reference To Small Essay? Aussi, obtient-on un tres grand nombre dequilibres possibles. Life Jane? Cest la un resultat troublant pour lapproche fondamentaliste puisquil signifie que les croyances ont un impact reel, conformement aux theses developpees par le sociologue americain Robert Merton [1953] qui ecrivait que les croyances collectives engendraient leur propre realisation (p.

144). Cleveland Competition Essay? Autrement dit, les contraintes de rarete ne suffisent pas a modeler de maniere univoque leconomie. Of Calamity? Celle-ci depend egalement de la maniere dont les agents linterpretent. Positive? Non seulement lidee dun modele unique doit etre abandonnee, mais en fait de tres nombreux modeles sont possibles, bien plus que ce quon pouvait imaginer a priori . Life Of Calamity Jane? Comme lecrit Chiappori ([1994], p. Reference Guide To Small Enteprises Essay? 75) : lhypothese de rationalite des anticipations est parfaitement compatible avec lindetermination de lequilibre . Ce role essentiel joue par les representations a priori des agents conduit les modeles avec anticipations rationnelles, loin des idees initiales defendues par les nouveaux classiques, a retrouver des resultats keynesiens (Bryant [1983]). Life Jane? Le modele de Philippe Weil [1989] est exemplaire de cet apparent paradoxe. Reference Guide Enteprises Essay? Dans un modele a deux periodes, introduisant lhypothese selon laquelle le rendement de lepargne depend positivement du montant global depargne investi, il demontre quexiste une multiplicite dequilibres avec anticipations rationnelles. Life And Adventures Of Calamity Jane? Confronte a ce resultat qui permet dexpliquer aussi bien des equilibres hauts que des equilibres bas selon que les acteurs economiques forment des anticipations optimistes ou pessimistes quant au rendement attendu du capital, Weil est amene a faire appel aux esprits animaux keynesiens, ce qui donne son titre a larticle, pour determiner lequilibre qui sera effectivement obtenu. Bipolar Brain? Comme dans le texte keynesien, les attitudes psychologiques des individus redeviennent une variable independante dont depend tout le systeme. Life Of Calamity Jane? Weil ecrit : les equilibres sont indexes par loptimisme ou le pessimisme des consommateurs (p. Apa Referencing? 889).

Cette indetermination massive des anticipations rationnelles est, selon nous, lexpression la plus forte de linadequation de la rationalite instrumentale pour penser les representations individuelles et collectives. And Adventures Of Calamity? Si lon veut sortir le discours economique de cette situation de crise ou tout est possible ou presque [4] [4] Cette idee selon laquelle lhypothese de rationalite. Apa Referencing? , il nous faut aller vers une meilleure comprehension de lactivite cognitive. Life Of Calamity Jane? Cela devient une tache essentielle pour leconomiste. Design Essay? Telle est la finalite du tournant cognitif . And Adventures Jane? Spontanement, cest du cote de la psychologie quont cherche le plus souvent les economistes. Slavery In America? Cest le cas de Keynes ou du courant contemporain dit de la finance comportementaliste (Thaler [1993]). Life Of Calamity? Pour notre part, nous avons privilegie lanalyse de lactivite cognitive collective. 2 - Pour une theorie de la cognition sociale. Pour commencer, il convient de definir precisement ce quon entend par croyance collective . Apa Referencing Journal? La theorie economique nous en propose deux definitions, a savoir la croyance partagee et la croyance commune . Of Calamity Jane? Pour clarifier ce point central, introduisons la notation suivante C i Q qui se lit : lindividu i croit que la proposition Q est vraie . Chemistry Essay? On dit alors que Q est de croyance partagee pour le groupe G lorsquon a C i Q pour tous les individus i appartenant au groupe G. Life And Adventures Of Calamity? On dit que Q est de croyance commune pour le groupe G lorsquon a lensemble suivant de propositions : C i Q ; C j C i Q ; C k C j C i , Q jusqua linfini des croyances croisees, pour tous les i, pour tous les j, pour tous les k du groupe, La notion de croyance commune est bien plus restrictive que celle de croyance partagee puisquelle implique, non seulement que tout le monde croit a Q, comme dans la croyance partagee, mais egalement que tout le monde croit que tout le monde y croit et cela jusqua un ordre infini de croyances croisees. Comme on slavery punishments le voit, ces deux notions de croyance collective renvoient strictement a des croyances individuelles. Life And Adventures Of Calamity Jane? Elles ne sont collectives quau sens ou tous les individus, dune maniere ou dune autre, les ont fait leur. Bipolar Chemistry Essay? Aussi, ces notions se differencient-elles dune autre notion qui peut secrire sous la forme C G Q : le groupe G croit que la proposition Q est vraie . And Adventures? Dans ce cas, on penguin pronunciation attribue des croyances a une entite abstraite, a savoir le groupe lui-meme.

Cette notation est prima facie absurde puisque a proprement parler, le groupe en tant que tel na pas de croyance, netant pas un etre humain. Life And Adventures Jane? Pourtant, lanalyse empirique nous revele que, dans de nombreux contextes de coordination, les individus sont amenes a utiliser ce type dobjet cognitif enigmatique, par exemple lorsquils disent : le marche croit que cette devise est sous-evaluee [5] [5] En fait, entrent dans cette categorie toutes les propositions. Essay? . Jane? Comment expliquer ce fait etrange ? Repondre a cette question est lobjet de la presente section. Slavery Punishments? Plus largement, nous montrerons que les croyances sociales jouent un role central dans les situations de coordination. And Adventures Jane? Commencons par expliciter quelle signification lindividu i donne a la proposition C G Q. 2.1 - Definition de la croyance sociale. A priori , on Cleveland Design peut en concevoir deux. And Adventures? Selon la premiere interpretation, notee (i1), lindividu i croit que le groupe croit que la proposition Q est vraie sil croit quune grande partie [6] [6] Le fait dutiliser un terme aussi vague que une grande. Design? du groupe croit que la proposition Q est vraie. Life Of Calamity Jane? On est ici proche de la notion de croyance partagee, mais uniquement aux yeux de lindividu i. Brain Essay? Au sens (i1), la croyance du groupe nest quune maniere de parler pour dire quun grand nombre dindividus du groupe croit a une certaine proposition.

Selon la seconde interpretation, notee (i2), lindividu i croit que le groupe croit a Q pour autant quil croit quune grande partie du groupe croit egalement que le groupe croit a Q. Of Calamity Jane? Cette definition est essentiellement autoreferentielle de telle sorte qua la limite, elle laisse indeterminee ce que croit veut dire dans lexpression le groupe croit que la proposition Q est vraie . Economics? Elle suppose simplement que tous les individus du groupe attribuent aux autres individus la capacite daccepter ou de refuser la proposition selon laquelle le groupe croit que la proposition Q est vraie . Life Jane? Il sensuit que la proposition Q est lobjet dune croyance du groupe pour un individu sil croit quun grand nombre dindividus acceptent cette proposition comme reponse a la question : quest-ce que croit le groupe ? . Small? Ou encore, on life jane a C i C G Q si et seulement si C i C j C G Q pour presque tous les individus j du groupe. Bipolar Brain Chemistry? Il sensuit que C G Q est proche de la notion de croyance commune aux yeux de lindividu i. La difference entre ces deux interpretations est tres importante. Life Of Calamity? Selon la premiere interpretation, aux yeux de i, cest la proposition Q elle-meme qui est mise en avant comme croyance partagee ; dans le second cas, aux yeux de i, cest la croyance C G Q, et non pas Q, qui est mise en avant comme croyance commune. In America? Dans ce dernier cas, la nature precise de ce que veut dire quun groupe croit a quelque chose reste indeterminee alors que pour (i1), la croyance du groupe se definit aisement comme la croyance dun grand nombre dindividus de ce groupe. And Adventures Of Calamity Jane? Si lon reprend notre exemple dun individu i qui croit que le marche croit que telle devise est sous-evaluee, ces deux hypotheses correspondent aux deux interpretations suivantes : (i1) lindividu considere croit que presque tous les autres intervenants sur le marche, pris un a un, croient a la sous-evaluation de la devise ; (i2) lindividu croit que presque tous les intervenants, pris un a un, croient que le marche croit que la devise est sous-evaluee . Les deux interpretations (i1) et (i2) nous sont apparues a priori egalement interessantes en ce que toutes deux mettent en scene un travail cognitif particulier qui vise a saisir le groupe dans sa generalite, en lui attribuant une croyance. Bipolar Brain Chemistry? Cest la, selon nous, une propriete fondamentale. Life Of Calamity? Il nous semble que cest tres precisement par le biais de cette capacite cognitive a attribuer des croyances au groupe en tant que tel que le collectif acquiert de facto une existence effective : au travers des croyances sociales quil suscite, il se montre apte a modeler les conduites individuelles et, de ce fait, saffirme comme une force autonome dont il faut rendre compte. Positive? Autrement dit, conformement a une perspective danalyse developpee par Mary Douglas [1989] a la suite dEmile Durkheim, le cognitif est pour nous un lieu privilegie dexpression du social (Orlean [1996]). And Adventures Of Calamity? On verra au fil des exemples que cest linterpretation (i2) qui doit etre retenue comme la bonne maniere de definir ce quest une croyance sociale , en particulier au regard de lidee dautonomie par rapport aux croyances individuelles.

Cette affirmation resultera dune analyse des jeux de pure coordination [7] [7] Pour plus de precision, se reporter a Mehta et alii. Apa Referencing? , configuration particulierement appropriee pour qui cherche a reflechir aux situations ayant une multiplicite dequilibres (Orlean [1994]). Life And Adventures Jane? On commencera par demontrer que ce quon appelle les saillances a la Schelling constituent un premier exemple de croyance sociale au sens (i2). 2.2 - Un exemple de croyance sociale : les saillances a la Schelling. Thomas Schelling [1960] a consacre une grande partie de son livre a lanalyse des jeux de pure coordination a deux joueurs. Journal? Si chaque joueur doit choisir sa strategie dans lensemble , le gain obtenu par lun et lautre des deux joueurs vaut 1 sils choisissent tous deux la meme strategie et 0 dans le cas contraire. Life Of Calamity Jane? Chaque joueur cherche donc a copier son partenaire de facon a maximiser son gain. Chemistry? Schelling a note que les individus se coordonnent de maniere beaucoup plus efficace que ce que prevoit la theorie standard. Life Of Calamity Jane? En effet, selon celle-ci, sil existe n strategies possibles, la probabilite de se coordonner est egale a 1/n puisque chaque strategie est parfaitement indistinguable. Bipolar Brain Chemistry? Or, dans toutes les experimentations quil realise, Schelling note que les joueurs se coordonnent de maniere bien plus efficace que 1/n. Life And Adventures Of Calamity? Il en est ainsi pour une raison tres simple : parce que les joueurs utilisent le libelle des choix qui leur sont proposes.

De cette facon, ils sont capables de reconnaitre des equilibres dits saillants . Adelie Penguin Pronunciation? On est ainsi confronte a une double etrangete. Life And Adventures? Dune part, dans les situations classiquement considerees par les theoriciens des jeux, la maniere dont les strategies sont nommees est sans aucune pertinence. Adelie Penguin Pronunciation? Cela ne fait pas partie de ce quon pourrait appeler la description fondamentaliste du jeu. Life Of Calamity? Celle-ci est generalement constituee de la matrice des gains et de lhypothese de rationalite des deux joueurs, au sens de la connaissance commune. Adelie Penguin Pronunciation? Cest sur cette seule base que le chercheur sefforce de caracteriser les equilibres. Jane? Au regard de la rationalite fondamentaliste, le libelle des strategies na pas a etre utilise. Journal? Pour designer cette forme de rationalite qui prend appui sur les contextes au-dela de ce que justifierait lanalyse fondamentaliste, nous proposons le terme de rationalite situee (Orlean [1994]).

Dautre part, les individus se montrent effectivement capables, a partir des libelles, de, selectionner certains equilibres. And Adventures Of Calamity Jane? Examinons cette forme de rationalite doublement enigmatique, a partir des travaux empiriques que Mehta et alii [1994] lui ont consacres. Ces auteurs considerent le jeu de pure coordination particulier consistant a choisir un nombre naturel n ? 1. Guide Enteprises? De maniere plus precise, un groupe G dindividus est constitue au sein duquel sont effectues des appariements aleatoires de telle sorte quun individu ne sait rien dautre sur son partenaire que le fait quil soit le resultat dun tirage au sort dans le groupe G. Life And Adventures Of Calamity Jane? De facon a mieux pouvoir interpreter les resultats obtenus, Mehta et alii ont eu lidee de commencer par selectionner un premier groupe, note P, auquel il est simplement demander de choisir un entier naturel superieur ou egal a 1, en labsence de toute situation de coordination. Bipolar? De cette facon, les auteurs obtiennent des informations sur la distribution des opinions personnelles au sein de la population testee. Life And Adventures Jane? Dans le deuxieme groupe, note C, le jeu de coordination est joue selon les regles precisees precedemment. Economics? Quels sont les resultats ? Dans le groupe P de controle, viennent en tete les reponses 7 (11,4%), puis 2 (10,2%), puis 10 (5,7%) et 1 (4,5%). Of Calamity? Par contre, dans le groupe C, cest le nombre 1 qui recoit le plus de suffrages, et cela tres nettement : 1 est choisi dans 40% des cas. Reference Guide Enteprises? Il est suivi par le nombre 7 dans 14,4%. Life And Adventures? Pour les auteurs consideres, le choix du nombre 1 constitue un exemple de ce quils appellent une saillance a la Schelling , a savoir la capacite a determiner un equilibre singulier, proeminent, susceptible de retenir un grand nombre de suffrages. Slavery Punishments? Ils notent que le choix du nombre 1 par le groupe C resulte dune elaboration cognitive tres specifique et enigmatique en ce quelle ne sinteresse pas aux preferences personnelles des joueurs en matiere de nombre, ce qui conduirait a selectionner des chiffres comme 7 ou 2, mais cherche a determiner directement ce qui est capable de faire lunanimite du groupe lorsque chacun analyse le probleme sous le meme angle.

Cela apparait nettement dans le fait que 1 , le choix final, narrive quen quatrieme position des choix primaires pour le groupe P de controle. And Adventures Of Calamity Jane? Ce nest pas en tant que nombre apprecie des joueurs quil est retenu. In America? Le raisonnement est tout autre. Life Of Calamity? Si les individus retiennent la regle choisir le premier nombre , cest en vertu de la propriete suivante : lorsque cette regle est suivie par tous les joueurs, elle permet de designer sans ambiguite une reponse unique et conduit a une coordination reussie. Reference To Essay? Cest tres precisement ce que Schelling avait mis en lumiere. And Adventures Jane? Il parlait a ce propos dun principe focal , a savoir un principe qui, utilise par tous, permet de determiner une strategie unique. Chemistry? Cest le cas du principe retenir le premier nombre , et non du principe choisir un chiffre quon aime . Life Jane? Dans la situation de coordination que connait le groupe C, les individus reflechissent, non pas a partir de leurs croyances individuelles, ni en se demandant ce que sont les croyances personnelles des autres, ce qui aurait conduit au choix du nombre 7, mais, en se placant a un niveau plus general dabstraction, de facon a determiner un principe capable de faire emerger, aux yeux de tous, un equilibre unique. Cleveland Design Essay? Lactivite cognitive est tournee vers le groupe en tant quentite separee. And Adventures Jane? Elle tente de produire un repere commun sur une base non-cooperative.

On trouve ici un premier exemple de croyance sociale au sens (i2). Competition Essay? Rappelons que, par definition, Q est une croyance sociale au sens (i2) pour un individu i sil pense quelle est une croyance sociale pour (presque) tous les individus du groupe. And Adventures Of Calamity Jane? Telle est la nature meme de lactivite cognitive qui conduit certains a retenir le nombre 1 : les joueurs du groupe C choisissent 1 parce quils y voient le choix capable de retenir le choix des autres lorsque tous les autres pensent le probleme sous le meme angle. Bipolar? Lactivite cognitive quelle mobilise est integralement tournee vers le groupe en tant que tel , et non pas vers les preferences individuelles des joueurs. Jane? Dans cette derniere hypothese, on Essay obtiendrait ce quon a appele une croyance sociale au sens (i1), qui conduit au nombre 7 lorsque tous les joueurs sont bien informes des opinions personnelles des membres du groupe telles que nous les revele le groupe P de controle. Jane? La force de la definition (i2) tient au fait quelle fait totalement abstraction de la variabilite des preferences intrinseques des individus pour sattacher a definir une croyance propre au groupe C en tant que groupe . Adelie Pronunciation? Cest une force car, dans un grand nombre de situations, la croyance sociale au sens (i1) est tres incertaine du fait meme de la variabilite des gouts individuels, donc inoperante.

Lorsque lindividu i sinterroge sur la croyance partagee des autres, un grand nombre de reponses plausibles lui viennent a lesprit. And Adventures? Dans linterpretation (i2), ce fait ne joue en rien parce que, par definition, chacun cherche a determiner ce qui est capable detre une croyance sociale pour (presque) tous les autres. Slavery? Cependant, dans ces cas particuliers ou un choix saffirme comme evidemment majoritaire, la definition (i1) de la croyance sociale permet effectivement une bonne coordination. Of Calamity Jane? On dira quon a affaire a un stereotype . Design Essay? Cependant, notons que la preference stereotypique est egalement une croyance sociale au sens (i2) de telle sorte que ce cas particulier ninfirme pas la generalite de lhypothese selon laquelle il convient de retenir la definition (i2) pour penser les saillances a la Schelling . 2.3 - Rationalite situee et role des contextes. Dans sa reflexion, Schelling insiste sur le role que jouent les contextes dans lelaboration des principes focaux. And Adventures Of Calamity? Lexemple precedent ne permet guere daller tres loin dans cette voie dans la mesure ou le contexte sy limite alors strictement aux seuls libelles des choix puisque le groupe C nest en rien specifie. Adelie Pronunciation? Lexemple suivant que lon doit a David Kreps ([1990], p. And Adventures Of Calamity? 120) permet daller un peu plus loin en montrant que lequilibre selectionne depend etroitement de la maniere dont les joueurs analysent lidentite des participants au jeu. Pronunciation? Selon la maniere dont varie la definition du groupe C, la croyance sociale se modifie. Kreps considere le jeu de coordination [8] [8] Le jeu effectivement propose par Kreps est un peu different. And Adventures? consistant a partager les 10 lettres A, B, C, D, H, L, M, N, P, S en deux sous-ensembles ne devant pas se recouper, ou le moins possible, etant donne que lequipe [1] doit choisir necessairement la lettre B et lequipe adverse, notee [2], la lettre S. Bipolar Brain Essay? Parmi les 256 partitions des 8 lettres restantes qui forment autant dequilibres possibles de ce jeu, lequilibre de point focal est selon Kreps, lorsque rien nest dit de specifique sur le groupe des joueurs [9] [9] En fait, dans la plupart des situations, chacun sait. Life Jane? , celui qui donne a lequipe [1] les 5 premieres lettres, soit A, B, C, D et H et pour lequipe [2], les cinq dernieres, soit L, M, N, P et S. Cleveland Design Competition Essay? Il sagit la dune nouvelle illustration de la saillance a la Schelling. Life And Adventures Of Calamity? Kreps ajoute cependant : Notons que la regle appliquee ici est entierement dependante du contexte . Apa Referencing? Pour le voir, il considere le meme jeu dans laquelle lequipe [1] est constitue detudiants de Harvard et lequipe [2] est constituee detudiants de Stanford et ou ce fait est porte a la connaissance des protagonistes.

10 villes leur sont proposees : Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphie et San Francisco. Life And Adventures Jane? Lequipe [1] doit necessairement choisir Boston et lequipe [2] San Francisco. Positive? Du point de vue de la rationalite fondamentaliste, les deux situations de jeu sont strictement equivalentes. And Adventures Of Calamity? Pourtant, dans a peu pres 75 % des situations nous dit Kreps (p. Slavery Punishments? 121), les etudiants dHarvard choisissent Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Miami, New York et Philadelphie alors que ceux de Stanford retiennent le complement, soit Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles et San Francisco. Of Calamity Jane? Le point focal est ici un partage geographique des USA selon ce qui est a lest ou a louest du Mississipi. Journal? Il est different de lequilibre focal precedent dans lequel les joueurs ne sont pas capables de partitionner le groupe G des joueurs en groupes dappartenance geographique distincte. On voit ici pleinement leffet du contexte dans la determination de la croyance sociale. Life And Adventures Jane? Celle-ci depend etroitement du groupe considere, de ce quon sait de lui, et non pas seulement du contenu intrinseque de la question prise en elle-meme. Guide To Small And Medium? Ainsi, si cette liste de villes etait donnee a des joueurs non americains, ignorant tout de la geographie des USA, mais connaissant lalphabet latin, ils reviendraient a la premiere solution car ils ne pourraient faire lhypothese que chaque joueur connait la geographie americaine.

Dans ces conditions, la prise en compte de la premiere lettre peut emerger comme principe focal . Life And Adventures Jane? Plus paradoxalement, il peut en etre egalement ainsi si, meme si les joueurs sont americains, lorsquils ignorent quils le sont. Apa Referencing Journal? Dans ce cas, chaque joueur ne peut plus faire lhypothese que le partage geographique prenant pour base le Mississipi est une croyance sociale du groupe. Life And Adventures Of Calamity? On voit ici que la maniere dont les protagonistes concoivent lidentite collective du groupe apparait comme une donnee essentielle du probleme, determinant la formation des croyances sociales au sens (i2). Positive? Tout ce qui appartient au passe commun du groupe, quil sagisse de precedents historiques ou de valeurs culturelles, est utilise. Life And Adventures? Lexemple considere par Kreps nous donne a voir leffet dun contexte culturel, mais le meme resultat pourrait etre obtenu avec un precedent historique. Un bon exemple du role que jouent les precedents historiques dans la determination des croyances sociales nous est donne par les marches financiers. Bipolar? Plus precisement, par les travaux que Shiller [1991] a consacres a la journee du 19 octobre 1987, journee ou la bourse de New York a connu sa plus grande baisse jamais enregistree, soit une chute vertigineuse de 508 points, representant une baisse de 22,6 %. Of Calamity? Comment expliquer une baisse de telle ampleur ? Les analystes saccordent pour penser quaucune information fondamentale ne permet de le faire. Pronunciation? Il faut alors chercher ailleurs : dans la dynamique intersubjective et autoreferentielle dont les marches boursiers sont le siege. Life Of Calamity? Shiller a eu lidee denvoyer un questionnaire aux investisseurs individuels et institutionnels pour connaitre leurs motivations.

Les resultats quil a obtenus mettent en avant le role qua joue la crise de 1929 dans ces evenements, en tant que modele de reference servant aux investisseurs a decrypter les evenements et a sy adapter. Journal? Il note, en effet, que la crise de 1929 etait fortement presente aux esprits des investisseurs au moment ou se declenche le krach doctobre 1987. Life And Adventures? 35 % des investisseurs individuels et 53 % des institutionnels ont repondu oui a la question Vous souvenez-vous davoir pense ou parle des evenements de 1929 durant les quelques jours qui ont precede le 19 octobre 1987 ? . Competition? Pour Shiller, la crise de 1929 sest imposee a tous les esprits comme la saillance pertinente, autrement dit comme le modele permettant de comprendre comment se deroule une crise boursiere. Life Jane? Rappelons que les mercredi 14, jeudi 15 et vendredi 16 octobre de la semaine qui a precede le krach, le marche des actions a deja connu trois baisses importantes. Essay? Aussi, durant le week-end et au matin du lundi, les investisseurs sont-ils nerveux. Of Calamity? La tres forte baisse de 200 points qui survient le lundi 19 octobre des louverture des bourses plonge les operateurs dans la perplexite devant ces evenements dun caractere tout a fait inhabituel. Apa Referencing Journal? Comment vont reagir le marche et les autres operateurs ? Dans de telles circonstances, que faut-il attendre du marche ? Les investisseurs ont interprete les evenements de 1987 a la lumiere de ceux survenus en 1929. Life And Adventures Of Calamity Jane? Bien evidemment, la comparaison navait pas de quoi les rassurer. Cleveland Competition? Elle a provoque des anticipations fortement baissieres et a alimente puissamment le climat de panique qua connu la bourse durant les journees du 19 et 20 octobre 1987. Life Jane? Pour Shiller, on positive economics ne peut comprendre la surreaction du marche sans integrer a lanalyse le role qua joue la saillance crise de 1929 comme prototype de la crise boursiere. And Adventures Of Calamity Jane? Cest le recours a ce modele qui permet dexpliquer le caractere excessif des baisses et des ventes.

Cette analyse illustre avec force le role que jouent les precedents historiques dans la determination des anticipations collectives du marche. 2.4 - Lautonomie des croyances sociales. Cette analyse des contextes, historiques ou culturels, dans la production des croyances sociales, nous donne a voir une etrange deconnexion entre celles-ci et les croyances individuelles. Apa Referencing Journal? Il semble que les individus soient comme impuissants parce que les interpretations legitimes qui modelent lequilibre de coordination simposent a eux independamment de leurs propres opinions. Life Of Calamity? Ces croyances sociales ont pour origine les multiples reperes communs, historiques et culturels, qui definissent lidentite du groupe. Apa Referencing? Parce que le passe nous livre des habitudes, des recits, des legitimites, les individus quels que soient par ailleurs leurs opinions ne sont pas libres dans leur capacite a proposer des representations collectives legitimes. Of Calamity Jane? Aussi, vont simposer aux acteurs economiques des equilibres quils nauraient pas necessairement souhaites, comme nous la montre lexemple de la crise de 1987. Cette autonomie des croyances sociales se revele avec force dans le fait que peuvent exister des situations ou, simultanement, tous les individus croient a la proposition P et tous les individus croient que le groupe croit a la proposition Q, differente de la proposition P, alors meme quaucune de ces croyances nest erronee. Cleveland? Ne reposant sur aucune erreur, ces situations peuvent donc perdurer sans quaucune necessite de changer de croyances, a un niveau ou a un autre, se fasse sentir. Life Of Calamity? Autrement dit, cela signifie que lon peut avoir C i P pour tous les individus i du groupe et simultanement C i C G Q pour tous les individus i du groupe, ce que nous avons appele anterieurement leffet Reagan (Orlean [1999], 79-81), sans quapparaissent des forces de rappel qui viendraient supprimer lecart entre croyances personnelles et croyance sociale.

Notons quil en est tout autrement lorsquon considere des croyances sociales selon la definition (i1). Bipolar Brain Chemistry Essay? Dans ce cas, il ny a pas dautonomie de la croyance sociale au sens ou lecart entre les croyances individuelles et les croyances sociales ne peut pas exister, sauf a supposer des croyances erronees. Life And Adventures? A nouveau, saffirme le fait que cest dans la definition (i2) que se trouve la conception la riche et la plus innovante. Apa Referencing? Grace a la propriete dautonomie qui la caracterise, se modifie en profondeur notre maniere de comprendre les interactions economiques. And Adventures Of Calamity? Elle met au jour une logique dun type nouveau, en rupture avec le modele individualiste classique qui voit la representation collective comme somme des opinions individuelles. Bipolar? Desormais, deux niveaux et deux logiques coexistent dont on and adventures jane doit analyser larticulation. Lanalyse des jeux de coordination permet de bien comprendre pourquoi il en est ainsi. Adelie Penguin? En effet, elle nous a montre quil fallait soigneusement distinguer entre ce que lindividu pense vraiment et son choix effectif.

Cela tient a la nature meme de linteraction consideree qui recompense, non pas ceux qui auraient raison et repondraient correctement a la question posee, si tant est quon puisse donner un sens a cette notion, mais ceux qui reussissent a prevoir au mieux les mouvements de lopinion majoritaire. Of Calamity Jane? Cette distinction appliquee aux marches financiers permet deviter les jugements hatifs dirrationalite qui sont frequemment proferes a rencontre des investisseurs financiers, par exemple lorsquon constate une deconnexion importante entre le prix cote et ce que la communaute des economistes considere comme etant levaluation fondamentale. Design? Prenons le cas dune monnaie deja sous-evaluee qui fait neanmoins lobjet dun important mouvement de ventes sur le marche des changes, conduisant a une sous-evaluation encore plus grande. Jane? On reproche alors aux cambistes detre irrationnels au sens ou ils evalueraient mal la valeur fondamentale de la devise en question. Punishments? Une telle hypothese ne tient pas. Life And Adventures Jane? Elle nest dailleurs pas necessaire.

Les cambistes, comme tout un chacun, peuvent parfaitement savoir que la monnaie est sous-evaluee et pourtant continuer a la vendre. Positive Economics? En effet, ce qui compte pour eux lorsquils interviennent sur le marche nest pas ce quils pensent etre la vraie valeur de la monnaie, autant quils en peuvent juger, mais ce quils anticipent que le marche va faire. Life Of Calamity? Sur un marche, on Brain Chemistry fait du profit quand on life and adventures reussit a prevoir correctement levolution de lopinion du groupe. Slavery In America? Telle est la regle du jeu. Life? On ne demande pas aux agents davoir raison et destimer au mieux la valeur fondamentale. Reference Guide Small And Medium Essay? De ce point de vue, la declaration qui suit provenant dun cambiste interroge au moment de la forte baisse de leuro en septembre 2000 est tout a fait revelatrice de la dichotomie entre evaluation personnelle sur une base fondamentaliste et choix dinvestissement. And Adventures Of Calamity? On y voit un individu intimement persuade du caractere sous-evalue de leuro, mais expliquant quil est neanmoins tenu a vendre sil ne veut pas perdre de largent : Loperateur que je suis a beau croire a une appreciation de leuro, il ne fait pas le poids lorsquil constate quun peu partout les positions des autres intervenants sur le marche des changes sont a la vente de leuro. Economics? Du meme coup, meme si jestime que leuro merite detre plus cher par rapport au dollar, jhesite toujours a acheter la devise europeenne. Life And Adventures Of Calamity? En effet, si je suis le seul acheteur deuros face a cinquante intervenants vendeurs, je suis sur dy laisser des plumes Je ne fais pas forcement ce que je crois intimement, mais plutot ce que je crois que fera globalement le marche qui in Brain Chemistry, fine lemportera.

Le travail de loperateur est de tenter devaluer au plus juste le sentiment du marche des devises [10] [10] Liberation, 8 septembre 2000, p. Life And Adventures Of Calamity? 24. Adelie Penguin Pronunciation? . Life Of Calamity Jane? Malgre sa conviction personnelle dune sous-evaluation, ce cambiste joue a la baisse et cest la un comportement parfaitement rationnel : sil avait achete de leuro, il aurait fait des pertes ! Une premiere maniere de concevoir cette situation consiste a suivre linterpretation que nous en propose le cambiste interroge. Slavery In America? Il oppose deux evaluations, levaluation fondamentaliste et la croyance du marche pensee sous sa forme (i1), i.e . And Adventures? comme etant la croyance du plus grand nombre des cambistes. Apa Referencing? Dans un tel cadre, lindividu interroge justifie son suivisme par le fait quil existe un grand nombre dinvestisseurs vendeurs, tres exactement cinquante intervenants vendeurs qui determinent la croyance du marche. Life Of Calamity? Selon cette analyse, ces cinquante intervenants vendent parce quils pensent que leuro est surapprecie. Positive? Cest donc une conception erronee du point de vue des fondamentaux qui les conduit a vendre. Of Calamity Jane? Face a ce fait accompli, notre cambiste na plus aucun choix. Journal? Il ne peut que se plier au diktat inadequat de lopinion majoritaire. Of Calamity? Si lon retient cette interpretation, nous nobservons pas ce que nous avons appele autonomie des croyances sociales , cest-a-dire une situation ou, pour tous les acteurs, est observe un ecart entre leur opinion personnelle et leur croyance sociale. Journal? En effet, dans le cadre de linterpretation proposee par le cambiste interroge, pour les cinquante vendeurs , croyance personnelle et croyance sociale convergent parfaitement pour prevoir une baisse future de leuro. Jane? Cest seulement le cambiste interroge qui constate un ecart entre son evaluation fondamentaliste et la croyance du marche.

Cette absence dautonomie na rien detonnant. Bipolar? Elle est une consequence du fait que nous avons considere linterpretation du cambiste et que cette interpretation sappuie sur une interpretation (i1) de la croyance du marche. Cette interpretation nest pas necessairement fausse. And Adventures Jane? Il se peut, dans telle ou telle conjoncture financiere donnee, quil existe, en effet, sur le marche des investisseurs naifs, mal informes ou irrationnels. Economics? Cest la une question de fait. Of Calamity Jane? Sil en est ainsi, la bulle baissiere sur leuro sinterprete aisement par le fait quil existe un grand nombre dinvestisseurs ignorants. Reference Guide To Small And Medium? Cependant, il faut bien voir que cette interpretation laisse un point central dans lombre : pourquoi les cinquante intervenants se trompent-ils ? Quel mecanisme permet-il dexpliquer quune meme erreur se soit propagee au sein du marche ? Aussi, est-il interessant de faire valoir une analyse alternative qui abandonne la dissymetrie suspecte entre notre cambiste parfaitement rationnel et un marche constitue doperateurs obtus.

Selon cette nouvelle interpretation, les cinquante autres intervenants agissent de maniere identique a notre cambiste : comme lui, ils se conduisent de maniere autoreferentielle, a partir de leur propre croyance sociale quant au fonctionnement du marche. And Adventures? Mais, conformement a lanalyse precedente, la croyance sociale quil faut considerer repond a la definition (i2) et non (i1) : chacun croit que le marche croit a la baisse de leuro . Adelie Penguin Pronunciation? Dans une telle perspective, chacun est identiquement rationnel, agissant en fonction dune meme croyance quant aux comportements des autres. And Adventures Of Calamity? Il ny a pas cinquante intervenants farouchement vendeurs, mais cinquante cambistes qui, reflechissant a ce que vont faire les autres intervenants, parmi lesquels se trouve le trader interroge par Liberation , anticipent quils vont vendre. Economics? Si on of calamity jane les interrogeait, ils feraient remarquer a leur tour quil ne sert a rien daller a contre courant dun marche aussi determine dans son aveuglement. Adelie Penguin? Et ils auraient raison. Life? La vraie croyance ici ne porte pas sur la valeur de leuro, mais sur le fait que chacun croit dans le caractere baissier du marche. Adelie Penguin Pronunciation? On reconnait alors notre situation de deconnexion entre les croyances privees, toutes convaincues du caractere sous-apprecie de leuro, et la croyance sociale au sens (i2) selon laquelle le marche croit a la baisse. And Adventures? On a C i P pour tous les individus i du groupe, ou P est la proposition leuro est sous-apprecie et simultanement C i C G Q pour tous les individus i du groupe, ou Q est la proposition leuro est surapprecie . To Small Enteprises Essay? Si chacun croit que chacun croit a la baisse , alors chacun sera vendeur et le marche baissera effectivement en validant ex post la croyance initiale. Life Of Calamity? On retrouve le phenomene de prophetie autorealisatrice. Bipolar Brain? Dans une telle situation, une bulle emerge sans quil ait ete necessaire de supposer la presence dacteurs irrationnels. And Adventures Of Calamity? Chacun est parfaitement rationnel, dans ses evaluations privees et dans son evaluation du marche.

Il nest pas besoin de supposer des evaluations erronees. Brain Chemistry Essay? Il suffit que tous les acteurs se referent dans leurs choix a un certain modele de marche, pense comme exprimant une logique separee. Les investisseurs qui nont limpression que de reagir a ce modele de marche, se voient alors tout a fait confirmes dans leur idee dune autonomie du marche, puisque malgre leur croyance generalisee dans le caractere surapprecie de leuro, celui-ci continue a baisser. Life Jane? Cette autonomie leur parait dautant plus indeniable que levolution observee ne trouve pas dans lanalyse fondamentaliste une explication coherente. Slavery In America? Aussi, loin de produire un ajustement de la croyance sociale aux opinions privees, cette situation conduit a renforcer encore la croyance sociale qui simpose comme seule explication plausible. Life Of Calamity? Lexperience du marche valide lhypothese dune autonomie de levaluation collective [11] [11] Cette configuration enigmatique dans laquelle les informations. Journal? . And Adventures Of Calamity? A tous les niveaux, les croyances se voient confirmees : en effet, levaluation fondamentale de leuro est sous-appreciee ; en effet, le marche croit a la baisse ; en effet, leuro baisse ; en effet, le marche se comporte de maniere autonome, cest-a-dire deconnecte des appreciations fondamentalistes. La notion de rationalite cognitive donne lieu a de nombreuses elaborations, comme le demontre pleinement le present numero de la Revue dEconomie Politique . In America? Il faut sen rejouir. Life Of Calamity? Le champ est vaste et a trop longtemps ete laisse en friche par la theorie economique traditionnelle. Pronunciation? Pour notre part, nous avons voulu montrer en quoi la notion de croyance sociale simposait a lanalyse economique pour penser nombre de situations importantes.

Cette perspective de recherche peut servir deux finalites convergentes : dune part, reequilibrer des approches cognitivistes traditionnellement centrees sur la cognition individuelle au detriment de la cognition sociale ; dautre part, permettre un dialogue entre leconomie et les autres sciences sociales, telles la sociologie, lanthropologie et lhistoire, qui ont beaucoup a nous apprendre sur ces sujets. Au moins deux auteurs participant au present numero se referent explicitement a la notion de rationalite cognitive et en proposent des definitions precises : Raymond Boudon et Bernard Walliser. Dans la traduction francaise proposee par La Revue Francaise dEconomie , on jane trouve ecrit : etudie son propre environnement la ou, dans la version anglaise, on punishments trouve survey the life and adventures of calamity jane, whole field . Bipolar Brain Chemistry Essay? Lambiguite est totale et nous avons prefere modifier la traduction en consequence. Une analyse tout a fait similaire aurait pu etre menee en partant de la notion defficience financiere. Life And Adventures Of Calamity? On aurait montre (1) que celle-ci est impossible pour reprendre le titre dun article celebre (Grossman et Stiglitz [1980]) et (2) que, dans le cadre de prix informationnellement inefficients, seule modelisation desormais acceptable, les agents pour ne pas commettre derreurs dinterpretation doivent pouvoir connaitre laction dautres operateurs (Gennotte et Leland [1990]) ; (3) ce qui a conduit a letrange notion de sunshine trading , a savoir lannonce publique de certains ordres (Admati et Pfleiderer [1991]). And Medium Enteprises? Autrement dit, se trouve reconnue la necessite den savoir plus que les prix.

CQFD. Cette idee selon laquelle lhypothese de rationalite est en elle-meme faible est defendue par Kenneth Arrow ([1987], p. Life And Adventures Jane? 206). Bipolar Brain Chemistry Essay? Le theoreme de Sonnenschein lui fournit une illustration exemplaire de ce point. Of Calamity? Mais les exemples ne manquent pas. Slavery Punishments In America? On pense a larticle de Boldrin et Montrucchio [1986] ou il est montre que loptimisation dynamique intertemporelle est compatible avec toute forme de sentier dynamique pour leconomie, sans exception, y compris des chaos. Jane? Autrement dit, supposer que les individus sont rationnels ne limitent en rien lensemble des cheminements economiques possibles ! En fait, entrent dans cette categorie toutes les propositions dans lesquelles on slavery punishments in america attribue des qualites a des objets collectifs, par exemple les voitures allemandes sont meilleures que les voitures francaises ou le mark est une monnaie forte . Le fait dutiliser un terme aussi vague que une grande partie du groupe , ou encore presque tout le groupe ou presque tous les membres du groupe , demandera a etre precise dans des travaux ulterieurs. Life And Adventures Jane? Dans le cadre de cet article, nous resterons volontairement flou et imprecis sur ce point. Design? On peut lire toute la suite de larticle en remplacant une grande partie du groupe par tous les membres du groupe . Pour plus de precision, se reporter a Mehta et alii [1994].

Le jeu effectivement propose par Kreps est un peu different et notablement plus complique. Jane? Jen presente une version simplifiee qui conduit aux memes conclusions mais evite une presentation inutilement longue. En fait, dans la plupart des situations, chacun sait ou suppose un certain nombre de qualites communes, comme parler la meme langue, celle dans laquelle lexperimentation est faite. Liberation , 8 septembre 2000, p. Bipolar Essay? 24. Cette configuration enigmatique dans laquelle les informations privees ne reussissent pas a modifier le choix collectif nest pas sans equivalent dans la litterature theorique. Of Calamity Jane? Dans les situations de type electronic mail game (Rubinstein [1989]), on pronunciation observe des blocages similaires au sens ou lechange de messages entre deux individus, aussi nombreux soientils, ne reussit pas a engendrer la connaissance commune necessaire a une certaine action des deux joueurs. Life And Adventures Jane? Les cascades informationnelles ont egalement cette propriete.

Cet article plaide pour la necessaire ouverture de la theorie economique aux representations individuelles et collectives, ce qui est appele tournant cognitif . Guide To Small? Dans une premiere partie, on life and adventures jane montre que la rationalite instrumentale ne fournit pas un cadre adequat pour penser cette activite cognitive. Journal? Il faut alors introduire lidee dune rationalite cognitive distincte de la rationalite instrumentale. And Adventures? Cette necessite simpose des lors quon remarque que les modeles a anticipations rationnelles conduisent structurellement a des equilibres multiples. Penguin? Autrement dit, les criteres de la rationalite instrumentale sont trop faibles des lors quil sagit de determiner precisement la maniere dont les agents forment leurs representations. Life And Adventures Of Calamity? Dans une seconde partie, on slavery in america avance la notion de croyance sociale pour penser ces representations collectives.

Dune part, on of calamity jane montre que leur formation depend etroitement des contextes culturels et historiques. Design Essay? Dautre part, on of calamity etablit que ces croyances sociales ne peuvent pas etre pensees comme la somme des croyances privees : celles-la sont dotees dune forte autonomie par rapport a celles-ci. rationalite cognitive croyance commune jeu de coordination point focal saillance a la Schelling anticipation rationnelle croyance sociale reperes communs. Summary This article argues for adelie penguin the need to life of calamity, integrate beliefs the penguin, individual and and adventures jane, collective levels in Chemistry Essay, economic theory, something which is and adventures jane referred to economics, as a cognitive turning point. And Adventures Jane? In the apa referencing, first section of the life and adventures, article, we show that instrumental rationality does not offer an penguin, adequate framework for life and adventures of calamity analysing this sort of in america, cognitive activity.

Rather, what is jane needed is Brain Chemistry a notion of and adventures jane, cognitive rationality which is slavery in america distinct from life and adventures instrumental rationality. Reference Small And Medium Enteprises Essay? This necessity appears clearly when we look at and adventures rational expectations models. Brain Chemistry Essay? As a rule, these models have multiple equilibria. Life And Adventures Of Calamity Jane? This implies that the positive, criteria of life and adventures jane, instrumental rationality is journal too weak to life of calamity, specify the journal, way people forms their representations of the life jane, world. Essay? In the life jane, second section, we introduce the Bipolar Brain Essay, concept of life and adventures, social belief. Journal? We show that the life of calamity jane, formation of punishments in america, social beliefs is life and adventures of calamity jane closely related to apa referencing, the cultural and life and adventures, historic context. Slavery? We conclude by life and adventures of calamity jane, demonstrating that social beliefs cannot be thought of Reference Small and Medium Essay, as the life and adventures jane, direct result of penguin, individual beliefs : there are in life and adventures of calamity jane, part autonomous from apa referencing journal individual beliefs. Classification JEL : A1, B5, C7. cognitive rationality common belief coordination game focal point Schelling salience rational expectation social belief common reference.

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POLITICO 44: A Living Diary of the Obama Presidency. After nearly five years, we’ve decided to life and adventures jane close down the 44 blog and will feature all White House coverage directly on the POLITICO homepage. Thank you for your readership, and we look forward to seeing you in 2014. Valerie Jarrett: Obama to Reference and Medium Essay buy health insurance by end of the day. President Barack Obama plans to sign up for health insurance through an Affordable Care Act exchange before the end of the day Monday, senior adviser Valerie Jarrett said. Monday is the last day to sign up for life, coverage that begins on Jan. 1, though the state and federal exchanges remain open through March. The White House has not yet said whether Obama will buy insurance as a resident of the District of Columbia, which has its own exchange, or as a resident of adelie pronunciation Illinois, which is part of the federal exchange. Obama speaks out against more Iran sanctions.

President Barack Obama urged Congress Friday not to enact new sanctions on life and adventures of calamity jane Iran in apa referencing, the near future and he suggested lawmakers advancing such measures are making political hay of the issue. I've said to members of Congress: Democrats and Republicans. there is no need for new sanctions legislationnot yet, Obama declared during a year-end press conference at and adventures of calamity, the White House. The president said he wasn't shocked that some on Capitol Hill were advancing new sanctions legislation aimed at Reference Guide to Small Enteprises, Iran's nuclear program. Of Calamity? In what appeared to be a thinly-veiled reference to the pro-Israel lobby, he attributed those moves to a desire to please anti-Iran political forces in U.S. I'm not surprised that there's been some talk from some members of Congress about sanctions.

I think the politics of Reference Guide to trying to look tough on Iran are often good when you're running for officeor if you're in office, Obama said. The president urged lawmakers to give a six-month deal with Iran over and adventures, its nuclear program time to work and to allow more in-depth negotiations on a permanent pact. If Iran suddenly tries to accelerate its nuclear capabilities, it's not going to be hard for Design Essay, us to turn the dials back or strengthen sanctions even further, Obama said. I'll work with members of Congress to put even more pressure on Iran, but there's no reason to do it right now, he said. We've lost nothing during this negotiation period, precisely, because there are verification provisions in place. Of Calamity Jane? We'll know if they're violating the terms of the agreement, Obama said. Let's test them. Now's the time to Reference to Small and Medium Enteprises see if we can get this thing done. Obama's comments came a day after White House press secretary Jay Carney warned for the first time that Obama would veto any new sanctions legislation Congress enacts before the interim deal with Iran expires. The president did not personally reiterate the jane veto threat Friday. However, Obama did suggest that shunting aside the apa referencing journal current prospect for a diplomatic resolution would increase the chances of a military conflict over the issue.

And he warned lawmakers that the war-weary American public is in no mood for that. It is my goal to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. But I sure would rather do it diplomatically. I'm keeping all options on life of calamity the table, but if I can do it diplomatically, that's how we should do it, and I would think that would be the preference of everybody up on Capitol Hill, because that sure is the preference of the American people, the president said. Obama to hold news conference at 2 p.m. Economics? EST. President Barack Obama will close out the year with a news conference at the White House on life of calamity jane Friday. He is punishments in america set to take questions at 2 p.m. ET in the Brady Press Briefing Room, the White House said in updated guidance. It's a chance for the president to reflect on the year, to look ahead and to respond to pressing issues including changes to the health care mandate and reform of the National Security Agency.

Later Friday, he and and adventures of calamity jane, the first family will leave Washington for a two-week vacation in Hawaii. Obama commuted sentence of Deval Patrick kin. One of the eight federal prisoners granted sentence commutations by adelie President Barack Obama Thursday is a first cousin of life jane Gov. Essay? Deval Patrick (D-Mass), one of the president's most devoted supporters on the national political scene. Reynolds Allen Wintersmith Jr. was sentenced to life in life and adventures, prison after being convicted in Illinois federal court in 1994 of conspiracy to economics possess with intent to life distribute and distribute cocaine and positive, cocaine base and possession with intent to distribute crack. He was 19 at the time of jane his arrest and Brain Chemistry, 17 at the time he got involved running drugs for the Gangster Disciples gang. He is 39 today and has spent the past 19 years in prison. A spokeswoman for Patrick confirmed that the 57-year-old Massachusetts governor and life and adventures jane, Wintersmith are cousins but denied any invovement in slavery, the drive to get the federal prisoner a rare commutation one of only nine Obama has granted as president.

The Governor has no recollection of and adventures of calamity meeting Mr. Wintersmith (they are quite far apart in age), and believes that if they did meet, it would have been when Mr. Wintersmith was a small boy. The Governor was not involved in any application for economics, a commutation of Mr. Life? Wintersmith’s sentence, and positive economics, only learned of the life and adventures commutation through today’s media reports, said the Patrick aide, who asked not to be named. Wintersmith is a first cousin on Patrick's mother's side, the spokeswoman added. Patrick's 2011 book, A Reason to punishments in america Believe: Lessons from an life of calamity, Improbable Life, discusses his upbringing on the South Side of apa referencing journal Chicago, an uncle's addiction to life of calamity heroin and the involvement of others in the neighborhood with drugs and gangs. A White House spokesman, who also asked not to be named, said Wintersmith's tie to Chemistry Patrick had no impact on the commutation decision and officials do not believe Patrick ever had any contact with the feds over the matter. Wintersmith's case went to life and adventures jane the Supreme Court in Cleveland Design Essay, 1996, on and adventures of calamity a challenge to how his sentence and those of his co-defendants were arrived at based on distribution of both powdered and crack cocaine.

The justices upheld the sentences without any noted dissent two years later in an opinion written by Justice Stephen Breyer. The lawyer who led the drive for Wintersmith's pardon, MiAngel Cody of the federal public defender's office in Chicago, declined to comment when asked about her client's family tie to Patrick. However, she said she was confident Obama would act when he learned about slavery in america, Wintersmith's story. We always felt like President Obama would correct this injustice with a clemency pen, Cody said in an interview Thursday. We just needed to of calamity jane give him the best clemency brief we could that would finally tell Reynolds's story . Slavery Punishments? We always felt like Obama will do this and we hope it is a sign of of calamity what is to come. Wintersmith's story drew attention from national groups like Families Against Mandatory Minimums because he was a very youthful offender who got a life sentence and was not convicted of a violent crime.

His crime began and ended when he was a teenager, said Cody. It was his first offense. He had no priors, but under the then-mandatory federal sentencing guidelines the judge had no discretion. He could only impose a life sentence. The defense attorney said changes in sentencing guidelines and the reduction in the so-called crack-powder disparity didn't help Wintersmith. The real problem is this 18-to-1 disparity in to Small and Medium Enteprises Essay, crack versus powder sentences, which currently has rendered him and others ineligible for relief, Cody said., estimating that hundreds of inmates are in life, a similar predicament to her client. Even the reduced disparity is still a disparity that, for Guide Enteprises, some serving lengthy sentences, makes them ineligible for judicial relief, she said. And Adventures Of Calamity? This certainly illustrates what we hope is a crack in the dam. Under the commutation granted Thursday, Wintersmith is Cleveland Competition set to be released on April 17.

W.H.: Obama would veto Iran sanctions bill. President Barack Obama would veto an Iran sanctions bill with Democratic co-sponsors, White House press secretary Jay Carney said Thursday. “We don’t think this action is necessary, we don’t think it will be enacted. If it were enacted, the president would veto it,” Carney said of the Iran sanctions bill sponsored by, among others, Democratic Sens. And Adventures? Chuck Schumer and Robert Menendez. Carney said the Senate bill would greatly increase the chances that the United States would have to take military action against Iran.

He said it would also be bad for attempts at slavery punishments, negotiating with Iran and life and adventures of calamity, defy the apa referencing will of the nation and the Congress. “Doing so would derail negotiations just when diplomacy is making progress,” Carney said. “It would potentially divide the international community and obviously would suggest bad faith on the part of the United States.” He added: “I think that there is overwhelming support in the country and in the Congress for a diplomatic solution to this conflict.” Update : An aide to life jane one of the Chemistry co-sponsors of the bill responds that the White House is presenting a false choice. The supporters of the bill believe it makes war less likely sanctions brought us this far, and and adventures of calamity, the threat of additional sanctions can help us force Iran to get rid of their nuclear weapons in the negotiations, the aide said. W.H.: Sochi Olympic delegation not intended to be snub. President Barack Obama wasn’t trying to journal send a message about Russia’s anti-gay laws when he named an Olympic delegation with two lesbians and, for the first time since 1988, no president, vice president or first lady.

“That’s not a message we would wait to send through this manner,” Carney said Wednesday. The delegation was largely viewed as a snub of Russia and its President Vladimir Putin, with whom Obama has been at odds on and adventures a range of issues. Carney said a half-dozen times that the delegation, headed by former Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and including tennis star Billie Jean King, former figure skater Brian Boitano and ice hockey medalist Caitlin Cahow, “represents the diversity of the United States.” “We have made no bones about the fact that we oppose and are offended by Reference Guide to Small and Medium the anti-LGBT legislation in Russia,” Carney said. “We have not pulled any punches.” White House to release NSA task force report Wednesday. The White House will on Wednesday release the full electronic surveillance report from President Barack Obama’s task force, press secretary Jay Carney said.

The White House had said it would release the life and adventures report, which carries 46 recommendations for Obama in response to revelations by former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden in January, after Obama decided which recommendations to follow. Obama received the report Dec. 13. “It’s a substantive, lengthy report, and it merits further assessment,” Carney said. Obama met Wednesday morning with the surveillance task force, known formally as the Review Group on Intelligence and apa referencing, Communications Technologies. “While we had intended to release the life and adventures review group’s full report in January, as I said earlier, given inaccurate and Cleveland Design, incomplete reports in the press about the life and adventures report’s content, we felt it was important to allow people to see the full report to draw their own conclusions,” Carney said. Slavery Punishments? “For that reason, we will be doing that this afternoon.” Obama will speak about the report in January, Carney said. PHOTOS: Morning Money Breakfast with Valerie Jarrett.

Jarrett: 'I'm not the shadow chief of staff' Valerie Jarrett says she has very specific responsibilities in the Obama White House and life jane, focuses on them, rather than on an all-encompassing portfolio. I'm not the shadow chief of staff, she said, responding to the use of the term by POLITICO's Ben White at a Morning Money breakfast. She mentioned her roles in outreach to women and girls, and to the business community and positive, local government officials. Various accounts have detailed Jarrett's role in life of calamity jane, swaying Obama's views as she leverages her personal relationship with him, but she said that their private time isn't spent discussing work. We do compartmentalize, she said. Later on, pressed about what she and the president talk about journal, as friends, she responded with a smile. Just stuff, she said, just stuff. She elaborated a bit, saying they discuss our families and the same things that everybody else talks about.

Jarrett also said she expects to stay in the White House through the end of the life and adventures of calamity Obama presidency. I have the apa referencing best job that I have ever had and life of calamity, will ever have, she said. I serve at the pleasure of the president . Design? I'll be there as long as he'll have me. Jarrett: Obama won't fundraise for library while in office. President Barack Obama won't fundraise for his presidential library while in office, White House senior adviser Valerie Jarrett said Wednesday, as she downplayed a recent report that planning for the library is well under way. He is not raising any money for it whatsoever, nor will he while he’s in office, Jarrett said at POLITICO's Morning Money breakfast. A Tuesday report in life of calamity, The New York Times detailed early-stage meetings about the library, but Jarrett said the adelie penguin process is not very far along. It's absolutely in the embryonic stages, she said. Jarrett was also dismissive of the suggestion that she's trying to push her way into life and adventures, the planning process.

I have a big plate of positive economics responsibilities to life and adventures jane handle at punishments, the White House, she said. You can't believe everything you read, even if it's in life and adventures of calamity, the New York Times. A Chicagoan like the president, Jarrett said that it's up to Cleveland Design Competition Essay the president to decide whether his library will be there, in Hawaii, or elsewhere. Who knows where it's going to life and adventures of calamity jane be, she said. As she closed out her response, she again hit the Times story, saying: The New York Times piece was not very accurate. Valerie Jarrett: No W.H. and tech 'disconnect' There's no disconnect between the White House and the tech community, Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett said Wednesday, responding to economics complaints from some companies that the president was too focused on life of calamity jane HealthCare.gov in a recent meeting, Ninety-nine percent of President Obama's time in the room for Tuesday's meeting with tech executives including Apple CEO Tim Cook and Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer was spent discussing the companies' concerns about the National Security Agency's surveillance programs, Jarrett said at POLITICO's Morning Money breakfast.

There was a presentation on the health care site for the executives by penguin Jeff Zients, but that was before Obama joined the meeting, Jarrett said. Life And Adventures? Sources at companies that attended the meeting have told various news outlets that they felt like there was too much discussion of health care and that it seemed as though the White House didn't realize their primary concern was the NSA. But, Jarrett said, there was no confusion. I don't think there was a disconnect at all, she said.

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coa resume builder Ancora imparo -- Michelangelo Buonarroti. (I am still learning) What information consumes is rather obvious: it consumes the attention of its recipients. Life! Hence a wealth of information creates a poverty of attention, and a need to allocate that attention efficiently among the overabundance of information sources that might consume it. The nation that makes a great distinction between its scholars and its warriors. will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting done by slavery in america fools. Fantasy, abandoned by reason, produces impossible monsters; united with it, she is the life and adventures of calamity jane mother of the arts and the origin of marvels. When a task cannot be partitioned because of sequential constraints, the application of more effort has no effect on the schedule. Slavery Punishments! The bearing of a child takes nine months, no matter how many women are assigned. Frederick P. Brooks, Jr., The Mythical Man-Month.

Some ideas are so stupid that only intellectuals could believe them. Intelligence is like a four-wheel drive. It allows you to get stuck in more remote places. Do one thing every day that scares you. My ability to keep cool in a crisis is based entirely on not knowing all the facts. The one common experience of all humanity is the and adventures jane challenge of problems. R. Buckminster Fuller. The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the punishments in america servant and has forgotten the gift.

The development of general ability for independent thinking and judgment should always be placed foremost, not the of calamity acquisition of special knowledge. It a person masters the fundamentals of his subject and has learned to think and work independently, he will surely find his way and besides will better be able to apa referencing adapt himself to life and adventures of calamity progress and Brain Essay, changes than the person whose training principally consists in the acquiring of detailed knowledge. Albert Einstein, in life of calamity Ideas and Opinions , p. Adelie Penguin Pronunciation! 62. It is not enough to life and adventures of calamity teach a man a speciality. Through it he may become a kind of adelie pronunciation useful machine but not a harmoniously developed personality.

It is essential that the student acquire an understanding of and a lively feeling for values. He must acquire a vivid sense of the beautiful and of the morally good. And Adventures Of Calamity Jane! Otherwise he with his specialized knowledge more closely resembles a well trained dog than a harmoniously developed person. He must learn to understand the motives of human beings, their illusions, and their sufferings in slavery punishments order to acquire a proper relationship to the individual fellow-men and to the communityOveremphasis on the competitive system and premature specialization on the ground of immediate usefulness kill the and adventures of calamity spirit on which all cultural life depends, specialized knowledge included. It is also vital to a valuable education that independent critical thinking be developed in the young human being, a development that is greatly jeopardized by overburdening him with too much and with too varied subjects. Overburdening necessarily leads to superficiality.

Albert Einstein, in Ideas and Opinions , p. 66-67. Integrity without knowledge is weak and useless, and and Medium Essay, knowledge without integrity is dangerous and dreadful. Knowledge is of two kinds. We know a subject ourselves, or we know where we can find information upon it. Iron rusts from disuse, stagnant water loses its purity and in cold weather becomes frozen; so does inaction sap the vigors of the and adventures jane mind. Leonardo da Vinci. Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is the probable reason why so few engage in apa referencing journal it.

In the field of observation, chance favors the prepared mind. We shall not cease from life, exploration, and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for apa referencing journal the first time. The other terror that scares us from self-trust is our consistency; a reverence for our past act or word, because the eyes of others have no other data for computing our orbit than our past acts, and life and adventures of calamity, we are loath to disappoint them. A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do. He may as well concern himself with his shadow on the wall. Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day. 'Ah, so you shall be sure to be misunderstood.' Is it so bad, then, to be misunderstood?

Pythagoras was misunderstood, and Socrates, and Jesus, and Luther, and Copernicus, and Galileo, and Newton, and apa referencing journal, every pure and wise spirit that ever took flesh. To be great is to life jane be misunderstood. Ralph Waldo Emerson, in his essay Self-Reliance How to Do Research, briefing by Grant Hammond, USAF Center for Strategy and Technology (CSAT) Analogy as the Core of Cognition, by Hofstadter, 2006 Stanford Presidential lecture and a text by Hofstadter from The Analogical Mind: Perspectives from Cognitive Science , by pronunciation Gentner et al, MIT Press, 2001 interesting and entertaining pieces on analogy, human cognition, and communicating within a language/culture group -- much of it very applicable to of calamity teaching and learning. How We Think: Thinking Critically and Creatively and Competition Essay, How Military Professionals Can Do it Better, by McConnell et al, in jane Small Wars Journal , 16 Sep 2011 This essay will summarize how cognitive theorists have described critical and creative thinking in general, and how some military practitioners have applied them. Guide And Medium Enteprises Essay! In doing so, this essay will propose principles of critical and creative thinking applicable to the military profession to provide a common vocabulary that describes the type of thinking we do. To expand and improve critical and creative thinking, military professionals need a common vocabulary that accurately describes the very thinking we are to expand and improve on. Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis ( local copy, 1.4 Mb low res ), by Moore, National Defense Intelligence College (NDIC) occasional paper no.

14, March 2007 ( local copy, 12.1 Mb high res ) - includes generic and life and adventures of calamity jane, intel-specific discussion, as well as an appendix which is the NSA's Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus NSA's Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus - incudes plans for 10 classes, as well as a template for summarizing articles/readings. -- very good examination of many elements of critical thinking, with examples ( PDF version ) Check out Part III - Cognitive Biases. How to Do Research, briefing by Grant Hammond, USAF Center for Strategy and Technology (CSAT) UFMCS The Applied Critical Thinking Handbook (formerly the Red Team Handbook), v. 8.1, Sep 2016 ( local copy ) We educate people to develop a disposition of curiosity, and Competition, help them become aware of life of calamity biases and behavior that prevent them from real positive change in the ways they seek solutions and engage others. UFMCS The Applied Critical Thinking Handbook (formerly the Red Team Handbook), v. 7.0, Jan 2015 ( local copy ) Our methods and education involve more than Socratic discussion and brainstorming. We believe that good decision processes are essential to good outcomes. To that end, our curriculum is rich in divergent processes, red teaming tools, and liberating structures, all aimed at decision support.

UFMCS Red Team Handbook, Apr 2012 ( local copy ) Each section can almost stand alone, and Section XI Structured Analytic Techniques has a large variety of tools/techniques for overcoming mind-sets including 9 Step Cultural Methodology and String of Pearls tool and Analysis of Competing Hypotheses and a passel of others. Action Learning Guide ( local copy ), from Presidential Management Fellows (PMF), posted by OPM - check especially the appendices for items/tools such as inference ladder, four frames, conflict management, stakeholder mapping, force field analysis, and more. Mind Tools, a GOOD site for quick pass at apa referencing journal, a whole slew of life and adventures of calamity stuff -- problem solving, analysis, memory improvement, creativity, stress management, time management, planning skills, comm skills, improved reading skills, shareware tools Mind Tools, site map showing all the options. Peirce, Pragmatism, and The Right Way of Thinking ( local copy ), by Campbell, Sandia National Labs, Aug 2011 Peirce is known as the founder of the philosophy of pragmatism and these lectures, given near the end of his life, represent his mature thoughts on the philosophy. Peirces decomposition of thinking into abduction, deduction, and induction is among the important points in the lectures. and not everything that counts can be counted. Nine-tenths of tactics are certain and taught in the books; but, the irrational tenth is like the Chemistry Essay kingfisher flashing across the pool.

This is the test of and adventures generals. Success can only Chemistry Essay, be ensured by instinct sharpened by thought. At the crisis, it is as natural as a reflex. T. E. Lawrence, in life and adventures The Science of Guerilla Warfare. The nation that makes a great distinction between its scholars and its warriors. will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting done by fools. See also the strategic corporal and Bipolar Essay, the three-block war regarding the need for strategic thinking at all levels in today's and tomorrow's conflicts The lines separating the levels of war, and distinguishing combatant from and adventures, non-combatant, will blur, and adversaries, confounded by our conventional superiority, will resort to asymmetrical means to redress the imbalance.

Further complicating the situation will be the Bipolar Chemistry Essay ubiquitous media whose presence will mean that all future conflicts will be acted out before an international audience. Life Of Calamity Jane! [Krulak] The perils of bad strategy, by Rumelt, in punishments in america the McKinsey Quarterly , (2011, 1) Another sign of bad strategy is fuzzy strategic objectives. Life Of Calamity Jane! One form this problem can take is a scrambled mess of Guide Small and Medium Enteprises Essay things to accomplisha dogs dinner of goals. A long list of life jane things to do, often mislabeled as strategies or objectives, is not a strategy. It is just a list of things to do. Such lists usually grow out of planning meetings in Cleveland Design Competition which a wide variety of stakeholders suggest things they would like to see accomplished. Life Of Calamity Jane! Rather than focus on a few important items, the group sweeps the in america whole days collection into jane the strategic plan. Then, in Small and Medium recognition that it is a dogs dinner, the label long term is added, implying that none of these things need be done today.

Bad strategy has many roots, but Ill focus on two here: the inability to choose and template-style planningfilling in the blanks with vision, mission, values, strategies. Developing Air Force Strategists: Change Culture, Reverse Careerism ( local copy ), by Bethel et al, Joint Force Quarterly , 3rd Quarter 2010 How we got to the point where our best and brightest are able to offer only tired and uncreative strategies is not as important as what we need to do now. We must develop, nurture, and and adventures jane, promote strategic thinkers. We define strategic thinkers as those officers who understand the inherent linkages between the abstract and concrete, between thinking and doing, and who eschew old checklists for new ideas and in america, apply those ideas to potential future situations. The Air Force should seek out those officers who have a balanced brainthose who can not only intuit well and rapidly, but who also understand when it may be necessary to look for theories that can be generalized. Instead, the Service teaches people, processes, and life of calamity jane, products that make up the Air Operations Center at its command and staff college. Reference Small And Medium Essay! There is no career path for strategists or strategic thinkers, and indeed there appears to be a trend away from intellectualism. Rather than disdaining intellectualism, senior leaders should be encouraged to read recent scholarship on strategic decisionmaking and ask themselves if they can learn something there.

In addition to the long list of histories of command and leadership, Air Force senior leaders should have to read Scott Pages The Difference , Malcolm Gladwells Blink and Outliers , James Surowieckis The Wisdom of Crowds , and and adventures jane, most importantly, Alec Fishers The Logic of Real Arguments . Bipolar Brain Essay! The balance between Gladwell and Surowiecki should be lessons that all senior officers learn en route to becoming strategists. Giovanni Gavetti and Jan Rivkin, in life of calamity jane How Strategists Really Think , tell us that one of the greatest mistakes leaders make is applying the positive economics wrong experiential analogies to the situation at hand. In todays military, senior leaders disdain empirical evidence for life and adventures of calamity gut-based decisions made quickly in high-visibility situations. As Watts mentions, too many of Bipolar Essay our leaders go on experience and and adventures, apply lessons from the past to the problem at hand. The current problem, however, is apa referencing journal, rarely like any they previously faced; thus, the lessons they bring forward are not relevant. Experience is important, but for life and adventures of calamity jane senior leadership we should seek out those who can adapt to the situation no matter what it is. Effective strategists also use academic and intellectual rigor en route to solving problemsnot just effective gut-checking. Penguin Pronunciation! We mentioned earlier the life of calamity trend toward relying on experience rather than critical thinking and inductive reasoning. Inductive reasoning is not hard merely for military officers, but for almost everyone.

In Talebs The Black Swan , he argues that because humans rely so much on past experience, they cannot conceive of a situation that has not happened before. Inductive reasoning is only one attribute of successful strategists. They must also exhibit: creativity curiosity confidence high intelligence without subject fixation ability to adelie collate and make sense out of massive amounts of of calamity data great and diverse intellect thorough knowledge of the Reference Small Essay means intuitive understanding of the ends. And Adventures Of Calamity Jane! We place creativity at the top because crafting strategies, like war itself, is an art. Bipolar Brain Essay! We posit that educating an officer to and adventures of calamity jane be a strategist is for naught if the Cleveland Design Essay first four traits are not present. We must demand more of our officersnot in terms of time or energy (most give more than their fair share whether they have it or not), but in terms of and adventures of calamity jane how they think . Reference Guide And Medium Enteprises! Let us be clear on one point: deductive thinking is required in campaign planning and in life and adventures of calamity airpower theory, especially when it comes to establishing quantifiable metrics and measuring against them. Pressed up against adelie the realities of war, deductive thinkers do a great job killing the enemy, but it is inductive thinkers who master how to discourage enemy forces from wanting to continue to fight. And it is inductive thinkers who are best able to determine how to life and adventures of calamity achieve victory on a variety of pronunciation battlefields against innumerable conflicts and and adventures of calamity jane, challenges. The metrics to measure each are very different. One is an empirical count while the other cannot be measured. Research, Writing, and the Mind of the in america Strategist ( local copy ), by Foster, in Joint Force Quarterly , Spring 1996 Ideas and the ability to generate them seem increasingly likely, in fact, to be more important than weapons, economic potential, diplomatic acumen, or technological advantage in and adventures determining who exercises global leadership and enjoys superpower status.

Thus it is imperative to develop, nurture, and apa referencing, engage strategic thinkers at all levelscritical, creative, broadgauged visionaries with the intellect to dissect the of calamity jane status quo, grasp the positive economics big picture, discern important relationships among events, generate imaginative possibilities for action, and life and adventures jane, operate easily in penguin pronunciation the conceptual realm. Almost by of calamity jane definition, strategic thinkers are broadly educated, not narrowly trained. They seek not simply direction but to grapple with the underlying questions of whether, why, and what if. A broad-based education expandsand fuels the self-guided growth ofones horizons. It develops the intellect and inculcates the spirit of inquiry for Guide to Enteprises a lifelong pursuit of learning. Life And Adventures Of Calamity! The measure of education, far from penguin pronunciation, being the level or even the life and adventures jane sum of formal schooling, rests more in Bipolar Brain Chemistry the degree of open-mindedness and active mental engagement it engenders. Keeping the Strategic Flame ( local copy ), by Builder, in Joint Force Quarterly , Winter 1996-97 The current demand by the military for welldefined objectives is eloquent evidence of how far our thinking has drifted toward the tactical domain. The insistence on operationally planning based on life and adventures of calamity enemy capabilities, while tactically prudent, is the and Medium Enteprises antithesis of and adventures of calamity jane strategic thinking, which should concentrate on enemy vulnerabilities. Although defeating enemy forces may sometimes be necessary to achieve our objectives, it is not always the Nations or the militarys best option. Charting the Course for Effective Professional Military Education - 10 Sep 09 testimony before the House Armed Services Committee - local copies of transcripts below Lieutenant General Dave Barno, USA (ret.) - Director, Near East South Asia Center for adelie pronunciation Strategic Studies Given the and adventures jane notable shortcomings many ascribe to penguin pronunciation U.S. strategic thinking over the last decade -- some deeply involving senior military leaders -- we must seriously question whether our program of PME today is on the right track.

In my estimation, we are drifting off course, and if uncorrected, our marked advantage in the intellectual capital of life of calamity jane warfare, in adelie penguin pronunciation the face of an increasingly uncertain future, is at risk. Thus, for life almost all senior officers -- all our generals and Reference to Small and Medium Enteprises, admirals -- the final fifteen to twenty years of their career is almost entirely largely lacking in of calamity jane extended developmental experiences. This fact becomes more troubling when correlated with the reality that decision-making and pronunciation, complexity at the senior levels -- especially regarding strategic and grand strategic issues -- is immensely more complex and uncertain than the relatively simpler worlds of tactics and operations. So-called wicked problems unresponsive to set-piece solutions abound. Life And Adventures! Dr. Williamson Murray - Senior Fellow, Institute for Defense Analyses The cost of the wars in Iraq and slavery punishments in america, Afghanistan suggests that the United States can no longer afford an life and adventures of calamity, approach resting on the comfortable assumption that commanders can acquire skills on in america the fly to deal with the new and different complexities that each conflict will bring in life of calamity jane its wake. As General James Mattis suggested in an email to Guide to Small and Medium Enteprises a professor at National War College, We have been fighting on this planet for 5,000 years and life of calamity jane, we should take advantage of that experience. Winging it and filling body bags as we sort out slavery, what works reminds us of the moral dictates and the cost of competence in life of calamity jane our profession. The depressing story of to Small Essay our flawed efforts to handle a burgeoning insurgency during the life and adventures of calamity post-invasion period in Iraq suggests that too many senior officers had never studied the lessons of Vietnam, much less the experiences of the British in their efforts to defeat the 1920 insurgency in Iraq. Dr.

John Allen Williams - President, Inter-University Seminar on the Armed Forces and Guide to Enteprises, Society Given the complexity of the future threat environment and the importance of the issues involved military threats and the proper relation between the military and and adventures jane, the society it serves the Skelton Reports call for the development of strategists and the encouragement of punishments strategic thinking is life and adventures of calamity, increasingly relevant. Cleveland! One should note that these are not quite the same thing. Only a small number of officers will develop into and adventures of calamity jane strategists of the positive first rank, but these are so important that the of calamity jane PME system must do as much as it can to encourage them to develop their talents to the maximum degree possible. Prospects for Strategic Thinking and Innovation: a Survey of War College Students ( local copy ), by Snow, Army War College, 15 Mar 2006 The survey reveals room for improvement in Design current levels of of calamity jane dialogue, critical, innovative and adelie penguin, strategic thinking. Unless changed, the of calamity current time and resource constraints will likely frustrate deep thinkers, stifle the creative and economics, hinder the process of of calamity jane organizational learning and positive, adaptation. The goal of achieving advantage through transformational processes is at life, risk.

Learning from the Bipolar Chemistry Essay Stones: a Go Approach to Mastering China's Strategic Concept, Shi ( local copy ), by Lai, Strategic Studies Institute, May 2004 The author introduces a new approach to learning about the different ways of life and adventures of calamity strategic thinking and interaction in Chinese culture. It is penguin pronunciation, through learning the life and adventures of calamity jane Chinese board game called go . This game is a living reflection of positive economics Chinese philosophy, culture, strategic thinking, warfare, military tactics, and diplomatic bargaining. Life And Adventures Of Calamity! The author also sheds light on the remarkable connection between go and Guide to Small and Medium Enteprises Essay, the strategic concepts in Sun Tzus Art of War . A modest claim is made in this writing that a little knowledge of go will take U.S. leaders a long way in understanding the essence of the Chinese way of war and diplomacy. Strategic Thinking chapter from Strategic Leadership and life and adventures of calamity, Decision Making , from National Defense University A leader can develop more effective strategic thinking skills. This is done by exploiting any opportunity to better understand yourself, how you think about complex problems, and how to go about apa referencing journal, making decisions. Of Calamity Jane! This understanding of yourself is critical, since this information that forms the foundation for developing your strategic thinking capabilities necessary in the strategic environment. Essay! The more you understand yourself, the and adventures of calamity more control you have over both the process, and the products you produce.

Virtually all of adelie pronunciation you will be required to serve in strategic environments. This means there will be many opportunities for of calamity jane you to slavery punishments in america function as a strategic thinker or advisor. And Adventures Of Calamity Jane! You must, therefore, continue to develop a new and broader set of Guide Small and Medium Essay thinking skills. The SLDM course, and the overall ICAF experience have been designed to help you understand and and adventures, develop effective strategic thinking skills to solve the complex, fast changing, unstructured problems you will soon encounter. Attack by Stratagem, from The Art of Chemistry War , by Sun Tzu Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in life jane breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting. Hence the saying: If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the Cleveland Design Essay result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in life and adventures jane every battle. Disruptive Thinking Disruptive Thinking and how the iPad changed Close Air Support in Afghanistan, by Christman, for Brain Chemistry Small Wars Journal , 15 May 2012 uses an example of an Army captain giving his Cobra helicopter a moving GPS map function, using an iPad I would argue the Marine Corps is going to need more of these types of Marines as we enter the jane next 10-15 years of fiscal austerity. As is positive economics, often quoted, were out of money, its time to think.

We as Marines, especially the Staff NCOs and company grade officers, need to do better at taking responsibility for life jane our own organization. The following are some ideas of how Disruptive Thinkers can be more effective. [ed. - all are expanded in the article] Be a Disruptive Doer, not just a Disruptive Thinker. Be ready for a bureaucratic knife fight. Dont forget that the Marine Corps is a warfighting institution, not a think tank. Reference Guide Small! Sometimes you can do more good outside of the military. With that being said, some responsibility does lie on life and adventures of calamity jane leadership. We do a very poor job at leveraging our best minds and our most talented leaders. The Marine Corps leadership can change this in slavery punishments in america several different ways: Bring centralized command, decentralized control back to the Marine Corps. Innovation is often a bottom up process, where those closest to the fight have the best solutions. Giving subordinate commanders flexibility to make these decisions will allow the most creative junior leaders to develop innovative solutions to existing problems.

Strive to keep the best and brightest officers and SNCOs in the Marine Corps. . If you want effective Colonels and Generals you need to keep effective Lieutenants and Captains. Disruptive Thinkers: Defining the Problem, by life and adventures jane Munson, for Small Wars Journal , 9 Apr 2012 - response to and expansion of the Kohlmann article above. Matt Ridley: When ideas have sex - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) At TEDGlobal 2010, author Matt Ridley shows how, throughout history, the engine of apa referencing journal human progress has been the of calamity meeting and mating of ideas to make new ideas. It's not important how clever individuals are, he says; what really matters is how smart the collective brain is. To And Medium Enteprises! Matt Ridley argues that, through history, the engine of jane human progress and prosperity has been, and is, ideas having sex with each other. Riley Crane: Crowdsource win - 17 minute video - a Pop Tech Talk Riley Crane, a postdoctoral fellow at the MIT Media Lab, found out about the DARPA Red Balloon Challenge four days before it started (find ten balloons placed in ten different locations around the country). Four days, eight hours, and 52 minutes later his team had won the competition. Watch him talk about how they did it and the challenges they encountered in the process. He also talks about other uses of the techniques - including rescues in Haiti - and pronunciation, about how our communication paradigms are broken and life and adventures of calamity jane, how they need to change. Capturing the Potential of Outlier Ideas in the Intelligence Community ( local copy ), by Watts and Brennan, in journal Studies in Intelligence Vol.

55, No. Life Of Calamity! 4, Dec 2011 What are outliers in the context of the intelligence profession? Outliers are data and hypotheses that analysts may too quickly dismiss. They may be the imaginative, even prescient analyses policymakers cannot bring themselves to believe. Intelligence analysts generally possess healthy doses of skepticism to help them avoid the pitfalls of hubris and self-delusion, but, sadly, this is insufficient, for the outliers that ultimately prove to positive be the and adventures of calamity seeds of surprise are outlandish, unthinkable, and wholly anomalous. Building a Wise Crowd ( local copy ), based on James Surowiecki's bestseller The Wisdom of Crowds , from Ask the Academy at NASA Academy, 24 Feb 2006 - showing how a group of people's diverse answers to a question, when put together, can be better than the expert's - in some cases, not all Surowiecki identifies four characteristics of wise crowds: The crowd must be diverse, which allows the individual members to bring different pieces of relevant information to the table. It needs to be decentralized so that no individual member is dictating what the answer should be. It needs a mechanism for distilling the groups opinion into a collective verdict. The individual crowd members have to be independent, so they remain true to their own information and perspective while not worrying about what the other members of the group think of them. Surowiecki explains: The paradox of the economics wisdom of crowds is that the best group decisions come from life of calamity jane, lots of independent individual decisions.

Wikiwar Where Campaign Design Unite With The Wisdom Of Crowds ( local copy ), by Demers, USMC Command and Staff College School of Advanced Warfighting (SAW), 2008 We live in an interconnected world where information is becoming the currency of the realm. According to UC Berkeley School of Information we produce more than 550,000 Terabytes of data each year and our current adversaries are leveraging this wealth of information into concrete operational advantages better then we can. By shying away from traditional operational security principles and economics, moving to what could be described as open source warfare, they can adapt more quickly to a given situation. A striking example of open source can be found in the Iraqi insurgency. Jane! It took only 12 months to reach (and surpass) capabilities for the deployment of the full spectrum of IEDs in Iraq that took over 30 years for positive the IRA to achieve under more rigorous operational security (OPSEC) conditions in Ulster. This paper will propose that a concept of of calamity jane open source warfare will be far more effective in journal supporting a campaign design methodology during complex emergencies as opposed to the traditional compartmentalized approach favoured in todays military planning process. First of all, we will look where this concept can be employed and life and adventures, why it would work. Apa Referencing Journal! Having identified where open source can be useful for the military, we will turn our attention to the need of changing our understanding of OPSEC.

Finally, we will propose an open source planning model which will allow us to better leverage information during campaign design and execution. Universal Access to life jane and Use of Information ( local copy ), from FEMA-sponsored Strategic Foresight Initiative , May 2011 In the last decade, technological advances in apa referencing both computer hardware and life and adventures jane, software have greatly enhanced people?s access to Reference to Enteprises and use of information, particularly via the internet and mobile devices. Based on this capability and access, the following trends and life and adventures jane, drivers have the potential to impact emergency management activities: Internet access expansion People as both producers and consumers of information Spontaneous reporting Crowdsourcing Increased emergency management use of the internet and social media. Hunting for Guide to Small and Medium Enteprises Essay Foxes: Capturing the Potential of Outlier Ideas in the Intelligence Community ( local copy ), by Watts and Brennan, in life and adventures jane CIA's Studies in Intelligence , Dec 2011 Outliers are data and hypotheses that analysts may too quickly dismiss. They may be the imaginative, even prescient analyses policymakers cannot bring themselves to believe.

Intelligence analysts generally possess healthy doses of skepticism to punishments in america help them avoid the pitfalls of hubris and self-delusion, but, sadly, this is life and adventures of calamity jane, insufficient, for the outliers that ultimately prove to be the seeds of journal surprise are outlandish, unthinkable, and wholly anomalous. Our interest in outliers was born out of Internet-based surveying that Clint Watts undertook on 2 January 2011. Of Calamity! The purpose of that survey was to test the positive ability of crowds to make accurate hypotheses about future counterterrorism issues in the event of Usama Bin Ladens death. Would you like to play a game? Solving real problems using game mechanics. by Garten, at and adventures of calamity, HHS Center for New Media, 27 Sep 2011 This is an punishments in america, example of crowdsourcing, collaboration, game mechanics and and adventures, social networking at its best. Instead of in america doing each of these activities in isolation, these elements were brought together as a powerful tool to solve a real world problem. The researchers noted that much attention has been given to the possibilities of crowd-sourcing and game playing in scientific discovery. Their results indicate the potential for integrating online video games into real-world science. In cases where we have the basics of social/new media covered, lets keep advancing and life jane, level up to thinking about game mechanics as another tool in our problem solving toolbox. Adelie Pronunciation! Not only can we apply the idea of gaming to life of calamity jane our citizen engagement strategies on the communications level, but perhaps we can pave the way in helping others see the value in applying game mechanics to their own areas of responsibility.

Blaise Aguera y Arcas demos Photosynth, a talk from positive economics, TED.com (but you may need to life and adventures jane watch it on adelie pronunciation YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on your computer) Blaise Aguera y Arcas leads a dazzling demo of Photosynth, software that could transform the way we look at digital images. Life And Adventures Jane! Using still photos culled from the Web, Photosynth builds breathtaking dreamscapes and lets us navigate them. Collaboration .Collaboration - Affect/Possibility: Ken Blanchard at TEDxSanDiego 2012, Published on Dec 27, 2012 Stating that no one of us is as smart as all of us, Ken Blanchard teaches us three aspects of successful collaboration: 1. Bipolar! if you meet someone who wants to accomplish something, and you want to accomplish something, the experience is meant to be dynamic; 2. rely on the different skills and experience people bring to the table; 3. essence and life jane, form are the Brain Chemistry two characteristics of a solid collaboration. Clay Shirky on institutions vs. collaboration - a TED talk (you may need to and adventures of calamity watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) In this prescient 2005 talk, Clay Shirky shows how closed groups and companies will give way to looser networks where small contributors have big roles and fluid cooperation replaces rigid planning. Howard Rheingold on collaboration - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Howard Rheingold talks about the coming world of collaboration, participatory media and collective action -- and Reference Guide Essay, how Wikipedia is really an outgrowth of our natural human instinct to work as a group.

Team/Collaborative Critical Thinking Team Critical Thinking: Foundations Research Directions, briefing by Freeman and Serfaty, at 2002 conference Collaborative Critical Thinking, briefing by Freeman et al, Collaboration and Knowledge Management Workshop, 2003. Why Wikis at NASA? ( local copy ), by Verville et al, in NASA's ASK magazine, issue 44, Fall 2011 Wikis are used across NASA for collaboration Some of the critical practices and principles for successful wikis are listed below. Wikis work best when they solve a problem that is evident to most of a group. Wiki use needs to replace an existing work process, not add to work. Wikis need advocates and advertising. Life And Adventures Of Calamity Jane! Seeding the wiki with valuable content helps jump-start the process; with a blank page, no one knows where to start. Gradual growth is journal, fine, and life and adventures of calamity, starting small helps a core group of Reference and Medium users become accustomed to the wiki (think pilot study). A wiki that serves a niche need is okay; it does not need to be all things to all people.

Developing Adaptiveness Achieving Adaptability through Inquiry Based Learning ( local copy ), by Duffy and and adventures, Raymer, ARI report, Apr 2010 This report presents inquiry based learning (IBL) as an instructional strategy addressing the Armys need for training flexible and adaptive leaders. Distinguishing tenets of journal IBL are characterized in contrast to the Armys current direct instruction strategy. Elements of IBL, including characterization of the orienting problem, learner support by the instructor, and assessment of learner outcomes are outlined. Considerations for developing an IBL curriculum are addressed, and details of an example of an Army IBL course of instruction are provided. Adaptive Thinking Training For Tactical Leaders ( local copy ), by of calamity jane Lussier and Shadrick, ARI paper presented at journal, the RTO HFM Symposium, Oct 2003 This paper reports a series of life and adventures of calamity jane research efforts embodied in the U.S. Armys Think Like a Commander training program. The work is interesting because it seeks to positive train a cognitive behavior thinking using methods that have traditionally been applied to training more observable and life jane, measurable behaviors, e.g., marksmanship and gunnery, sports performance.

In short, it does not greatly respect a traditional distinction between such things as physical movements, perceptions, and apa referencing, cognitions when it comes to training, rather treats these all as behaviors that are amenable to the same training methods and principles. Life And Adventures Jane! Deliberate practice techniques were applied to develop exercises to train the task of adaptive thinking in tactical situations. Developing Leaders to Adapt and slavery, Dominate for the Army of Today and life and adventures jane, Tomorrow ( local copy ), by Davis and Martin, Military Review , Sep-Oct 2012 Change in the College comes in how we accomplish our educational mission, as well as within the content of pronunciation our courses. This change is an active, evolutionary educational process that drives the institution to life and adventures reexamine itself on a frequent basis. The operational environment is dramatically different than in Reference to Small Enteprises Essay previous times. Additionally, there has been a tremendous growth in understanding of adult learning and professional education, and and adventures jane, CGSC is leveraging this new science. We are educating a different generation of emerging leaders who bring incredible experience to the classroom to apa referencing share. Our teaching methods account for this shift in our students background and experience. The most obvious difference over the previous 30 years is that more than 90 percent of our Army students have recent combat experience and nearly 70 percent have multiple combat tours. Based on and adventures jane this background, and the ever-changing operating environment that is our world, it is apa referencing journal, easy to see that change remains a constant in the process of leader development and education for the Army.

Creativity and Innovation Logic will get you from A to B. Imagination will take you everywhere. Reasonable people adapt themselves to the world. Unreasonable people attempt to adapt the world to themselves. All progress, therefore, depends on unreasonable people. George Bernhard Shaw. If the world were perfect, it wouldnt be. A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.

Creativity is thinking up new things. Innovation is doing new things. The only and adventures of calamity jane, thing harder than getting a new idea into the military is getting an penguin, old one out. Anxiety is the hand maiden of creativity. The foolish and the dead alone never change their opinions. James Russel Lowell. As the births of living creatures, at first, are ill-shapen: so are all Innovations, which are the births of time.

He that will not apply new remedies must expect new evils; for time is the greatest innovator. In times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists. The world owes all of its onward impulses to men ill at ease. The happy man inevitably confines himself within ancient limits. I want to stay as close to the edge as I can without going over. Out on the edge you see all kinds of things you can't see from the center. Kurt Vonnegut, Jr.

In the age of information sciences, the most valuable asset is knowledge, which is a creation of life and adventures of calamity jane human imagination and creativity. Bipolar Essay! We were among the last to comprehend this truth and we will be paying for this oversight for many years to come. Mikhail Gorbachev, 1990. Innovation by definition will not be accepted at first. It takes repeated attempts, endless demonstrations, monotonous rehearsals before innovation can be accepted and internalized by life and adventures of calamity jane an organization. This requires 'courageous patience'. See John Boyd and the OODA loop - especially the journal articles and briefings by jane Osinga. Eric Berlow and Sean Gourley: Mapping ideas worth spreading - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) What do 24,000 ideas look like? Ecologist Eric Berlow and physicist Sean Gourley apply algorithms to the entire archive of TEDx Talks, taking us on a stimulating visual tour to show how ideas connect globally. Doing the right thing versus Doing things right A Framework for Post-ORI Innovation ( local copy ), by Gillen, in Air Force Print News Today, 22 Aug 2012 Unfortunately, we're more focused today on doing things right than doing the right thing. This has become apparent as we prepare for the upcoming inspection.

Doing things right means being tactically focused on our compliance with Air Force Instructions and adherence to checklists. Doing the right thing involves a more strategic perspective and a more critical analysis of activities to ensure the outcomes are meeting our intended purposes. Through a process of strategic innovation we can transition from economics, doing things right to doing the right thing, a shift which will ultimately result in organizational efficiencies and increased job satisfaction. Keith Yamashita: The 3 Habits of life and adventures Great Creative Teams, a 99 u video When the your team is faced with adversity does it stand strong and act boldly or does it crumble under pressure? Based on his work with over 1000 teams, Keith Yamashita shares his insights about great collaborative environments including: have an awareness beyond your day-to-day, respect the unique talents of penguin pronunciation your team members, and actively cultivate meaningful one-on-one relationships. Adapt or Die - The Imperative for a Culture of and adventures Innovation in the United States Army ( local copy ), by Fastabend and Simpson, U.S. Army Our competitors are living, thinking, and adaptive adversaries who mean to destroy us and the society we defend.

Our choice is quite clear: Adapt or Die. Failure does not mean Chapter 11 and an updated resume. Failure means death and Bipolar Brain, destruction for ourselves, our comrades, and all that we cherish. The Creativity Conundrum ( local copy ), by Buser - downloaded from US Naval War College, /luce.nt/ , A Journal of National Security Studies, 2012 The ability to be creative, or think creatively, has long been recognized as a core component to successful leadership at all levels of of calamity command. Especially at Guide Small and Medium Enteprises Essay, the strategic level, the ability to think creatively and adapt to changing circumstances is often the difference between life and death, victory and defeat. Of Calamity Jane! . And despite general agreement to this fact by most senior leaders, the military on adelie pronunciation the whole is ill-equipped for producing leaders who are adaptable, flexible, and and adventures of calamity jane, who can think creatively. Rather, its personnel makeup, focus on operations, and sheer bureaucracy all combine to create and reward leaders who are risk-averse, conformists, and good at maintaining the status quo. Center of Innovation (CoI), US Air Force Academy The Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate funded Center of Innovation (CoI) at the United States Air Force Academy (USAFA) was established in 2008 and has become a leader in championing game-changing innovations for the US Government (USG) by leveraging unique public-private partnerships. Brain! The CoI has become the 'sandbox' for government agencies, private industry giants, and academia to perform collaborative research, share expertise, and shape technologies within the private sector to fit government needs DHS pamphlet talking about the CoI ( local copy ) NASA Center of Excellence for Collaborative Innovation Established in 2011, the CoECI serves to advance the and adventures of calamity jane use of open innovation methods across the federal government, in particular, the use of prizes and challenge. The CoECI provides guidance to economics other federal agencies and NASA centers on implementing open innovation initiatives from problem definition, to incentive design, to post- submission evaluation of solutions. Navy Warfare Development Command (NWDC) Navy Center for Innovation (NCFI) Shaping Navy Culture: A Campaign Plan for 2025 ( local copy ), by Tyler, NWDC White Paper, 14 Feb 2012 This white paper introduces a concept to change Navy organizational culture into and adventures an innovative, intellectually agile institution.

This paper examines current conditions, introduces an approach, identifies themes, and proposes actions to build momentum for the concept. Innovators Guide ( local copy, 3.8 Mb ), from the Navy Center for Innovation, Navy Warfare Development Command, 29 Aug 2012 From Navy Warfare Development Command Public Affairs: Navy Warfare Development Command (NWDC) has published The Innovator's Guide, Aug. 29, to help innovators of Design all ages - but particularly the Navy's junior leaders - become more innovative and facilitate the transformation of good ideas into and adventures real warfighting capabilities. As the Navy Center for Innovation, NWDC is adelie, spearheading a campaign to reinvigorate a culture of innovation within the Navy, and the guide is an important component of that endeavor. In addition to defining innovation and why it is life and adventures, important, the guide provides advice on how to identify and define problems that need solving, proven techniques for finding creative solutions, and Cleveland, how to move these ideas through a large organization to drive towards implementation. Junior leaders are often uniquely positioned to recognize emerging problems, and employ new technologies to solve them. It's up to us to give them the tools and the open channels to be successful, said Rear Adm. Life! Terry B. Cleveland Design Competition Essay! Kraft, commander, NWDC. Life And Adventures Jane! In his introduction, Kraft challenges the junior leaders to think deeply, question continuously, debate vigorously, read broadly, write boldly and adelie penguin pronunciation, never give up on a good idea. To download The Innovator's Guide, visit https://www.nwdc.navy.mil/default.aspx.

Videos and transcripts from NWDC's Maritime Innovation Symposium and Junior Leader Innovation Symposium are also available at the website. If file size is an life and adventures of calamity jane, issue, Innovators Guide - Final Draft ( local copy, 321 Kb ), from the Navy Center for positive Innovation, Navy Warfare Development Command, 4 June 2012. Will It Work Here? A Decisionmakers Guide to and adventures Adopting Innovations ( local copy ), Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ), Sep 2008 medical focus, but contains many questions every organization should ask about adoption of potential innovations. Military Innovation in Bipolar the Rise and Fall of Great Powers: Lessons for America ( local copy ), by Taylor, NPS thesis, June 2011 A militarys ability to adapt its organization, doctrine, and technology strategy to life and adventures of calamity meet the threats of its time influences the states capacity to maintain great power status. This thesis uses a historical overview of military innovation among great powers throughout history to punishments in america draw lessons for the U.S. military today. . Finally, and most importantly, this study finds it essential to foster a climate and and adventures jane, institutional culture receptive to Design Competition Essay innovation. Life And Adventures Of Calamity! A true meritocracy would allow leaders to promote the most promising soldiers and officers despite their inability to meet any time-in-service requirements.

The year-group promotion system codifies a rigid bureaucratic structure that ensures slow change and slavery punishments, little innovation. How PowerPoint Stifles Understanding, Creativity, and of calamity jane, Innovation Within Your Organization, by Zweibelson, in Small Wars Journal , 4 Sep 2012 - includes eight recommendations at the end, to restore the briefer as a critical thinker PowerPoint provides a useful vehicle for sharing and developing concepts among military professionals in a variety of venues. Unfortunately, the U.S. military tends to lose track of the apa referencing journal supportive context for PowerPoint and instead shackles organizations to institutional processes and rigid group-think. We tend to burden our military professionals with an exhausting and high-maintenance requirement to churn out repetitive and non-explanatory slide decks for nearly every conceivable information requirement. Rarely do we conduct a meeting without the ever-present bright projection of and adventures jane PowerPoint upon a screen. Slavery! When you attend a briefing and the majority of life and adventures of calamity slides and material attempt to Cleveland Essay reduce, measure, categorize, or describe something, we are often merely admiring the problem.

Instead of and adventures jane thinking about punishments, why something is occurring, we are usually required to answer precise information that satisfies a descriptive (WHAT-centric) procedure instead of a critical line of inquiry. Life Of Calamity! Many military professionals refer to this as feeding the beast in PowerPoint-centric organizations, where we openly acknowledge that our own hierarchy often demands volumes of often meaningless or irrelevant information for illusionary pretexts. If descriptive thinking blinds your organization to slavery punishments critical and creative thinking, then PowerPoint is the drug of choice for continuing the reductionist and jane, highly tacticized mentality across an organization that fears uncertainty. Additionally, a recent trend of cramming four slides onto Guide and Medium Essay one quad chart slide is another work-around that compresses a larger slide show into fewer yet more cluttered slides and supports the quantity over quality tension. This recent staff technique defeats the purpose of a quadrant chart that uses two separate tensions in an overlapping geometric structure to demonstrate patterns and explore complex relationships. Quad charts are not interrelated if you apply one simple test. By removing one quadrant of a true quad chart, you will render the entire slide incomplete. Each quadrant in a quad chart should systemically relate to life jane the other quadrants in terms of context. If you are only removing one component while the three remaining quadrants maintain their coherence, your staff has merely shoved ten pounds of dirt into a five pound bag for you, by condensing four slides into one. This reduces total slide numbers, but does little to improve organizational learning. Many military organizations use read-ahead packets that provide an advanced copy of the PowerPoint briefing slides in advance of the briefing. In theory, this implies an Guide to Small Essay, alternate route for information sharing that, when combined with a briefing, could function in tandem.

In practice, this requires two commitments that are rarely met. First, all attendees must endeavor to life actually read the read-ahead packet. This prepares an audience to enter a briefing cognizant of the topics, context, and Chemistry, prepared to offer relevant discourse to drive emergent thought. And Adventures Of Calamity Jane! Secondly, the briefer must resist using any slides in apa referencing journal the read-ahead except for ancillary or expository reasons during the brief. Simply following the exact slide format as the read-ahead drags those that invested time to read it earlier back through redundant information, and reward those that came to the meeting unprepared. Innovating the Future: From Ideas to Adoption, by Denning, in The Futurist , Jan-Feb 2012 - Futurists and innovators can teach each other lessons to help their ideas succeed. - discusses the items below and more Three most common methods used by life of calamity jane futurists Revelation of current realities Extrapolation of trends Scenarios Eight innovation practices Sensing Envisioning Offering Adopting Sustaining Executing Leading Embodying. NASA's ASK magazine The Innovation Paradox ( local copy ), by Hoffman, in NASA's ASK magazine, issue 41, Winter 2011 - Sometimes organizational 'support' kills good new ideas. Chemistry Essay! Many organizations live and die by and adventures jane good new ideas. The challenge they face is to cultivate good ideas by giving innovators just the right blend of freedom and support. One simple approach that is not taken often enough is to let the innovators themselves decide how the Cleveland Design Competition Essay organization can help them develop their ideas. A manager asking, What do you need from me? has a good chance of finding the sweet spot between no support (Do what you want as long as I dont know about it) and idea-killing interference.

Expecting the and adventures of calamity jane Unexpected ( local copy ), by Frasqueri-Molina, in NASA's ASK magazine, issue 43, Summer 2011 - creating a mitigation plan to deal with unexpected risks The author developed a risk-mitigation plan to reestablish order from chaos. Remain calm. Essay! Halt the entire project or just the affected work momentarily and let everyone take a break. Immediately gather the resolution team, which consists of the jane project manager and any of the people who can offer solutions; meet privately. Assess risk impact. Brainstorm solutions. Choose a solution. Obtain project sponsor approval. Communicate the solution to the entire team, resume project, resolve risk. Why Wikis at NASA? ( local copy ), by Verville et al, in NASA's ASK magazine, issue 44, Fall 2011 Wikis are used across NASA for collaboration Some of the critical practices and principles for successful wikis are listed below.

Wikis work best when they solve a problem that is evident to most of a group. Wiki use needs to Design Essay replace an existing work process, not add to work. Wikis need advocates and of calamity jane, advertising. Apa Referencing! Seeding the wiki with valuable content helps jump-start the life of calamity process; with a blank page, no one knows where to start. Gradual growth is fine, and Reference Guide to Small and Medium Enteprises, starting small helps a core group of users become accustomed to the wiki (think pilot study). A wiki that serves a niche need is okay; it does not need to be all things to all people. Innovation Versus Adaptability: Seizing the Initiative Through Creative Thinking Versus Reacting to the Enemy ( local copy ), by Grothe, SAMS paper, 2009 Leadership must be committed to learning, underwrite experimentation, and create an life and adventures jane, environment that generates creative thought and innovation. Doctrine must incorporate more aspects of innovation, creative and critical thinking and innovative leadership.

The Armys training constructs produce adaptive leaders, but must start to penguin assess innovation as well, in order to life jane generate this within the force as well. The most critical area the Army must focus change in is within Professional Military Education for field grade officers. Understanding Innovation ( local copy ), by Williams, in Military Review , Jul-Aug 2009 Field Manual 1-0, The Army, states that Army leaders are continuing to foster creative thinking. They are challenging inflexible ways of thinking, removing impediments to institutional innovation, and underwriting the risks associated with bold change. Perhaps this statement is true, but given the contemporary use of the positive economics word innovation, it is also meaningless. Claiming to life and adventures of calamity jane be innovative carries about as much weight as declaring a love for puppies; its easy to say and unpopular to challenge. When words represent some indistinct idea, they are susceptible to reinvention or distortion with potentially significant unintended consequences. Innovation Starvation, by positive economics Stephenson, in life of calamity jane World Policy Journal , Fall 2011 Still, I worry that our inability to match the achievements of the 1960s space program might be symptomatic of a general failure of our society to get big things done. Innovation cant happen without accepting the risk that it might fail. The vast and radical innovations of the slavery mid-20th century took place in a world that, in retrospect, looks insanely dangerous and unstable. Todays belief in ineluctable certainty is the and adventures of calamity jane true innovation-killer of our age.

In this environment, the best an Reference Small Essay, audacious manager can do is to develop small improvements to of calamity existing systemsclimbing the Guide to and Medium Essay hill, as it were, toward a local maximum, trimming fat, eking out the occasional tiny innovationlike city planners painting bicycle lanes on the streets as a gesture toward solving our energy problems. Any strategy that involves crossing a valleyaccepting short-term losses to reach a higher hill in the distancewill soon be brought to a halt by the demands of a system that celebrates short-term gains and tolerates stagnation, but condemns anything else as failure. In short, a world where big stuff can never get done. How We Think: Thinking Critically and Creatively and How Military Professionals Can Do it Better, by McConnell et al, in Small Wars Journal , 16 Sep 2011 This essay will summarize how cognitive theorists have described critical and creative thinking in general, and how some military practitioners have applied them. Life Of Calamity! In doing so, this essay will propose principles of critical and creative thinking applicable to the military profession to provide a common vocabulary that describes the type of thinking we do. To expand and improve critical and creative thinking, military professionals need a common vocabulary that accurately describes the very thinking we are to expand and Design, improve on. Sir Ken Robinson Sir Ken Robinson: Do schools kill creativity?, a TED.com video, 2006 - EXCELLENT 20 minutes Sir Ken Robinson makes an entertaining and profoundly moving case for jane creating an education system that nurtures (rather than undermines) creativity.

Changing Education Paradigms, video animation of Sir Ken Robinson's key concepts over time - EXCELLENT 12 minutes Sir Ken Robinson: Bring on the learning revolution!, a TED.com video, 2010 follow-up to positive economics the 2006 talk - EXCELLENT 20 minutes In this poignant, funny follow-up to his fabled 2006 talk, Sir Ken Robinson makes the case for a radical shift from standardized schools to life of calamity jane personalized learning -- creating conditions where kids' natural talents can flourish. Sir Ken Robinson: How to escape education's death valley , a TED.com video, 2013, from the TED TV special on education Sir Ken Robinson outlines 3 principles crucial for the human mind to flourish -- and how current education culture works against slavery them. In a funny, stirring talk he tells us how to life of calamity jane get out of the educational death valley we now face, and how to nurture our youngest generations with a climate of possibility. There are three principles on journal which human life flourishes, and they are contradicted by the culture of and adventures of calamity jane education under which most teachers have to labor and most students have to endure. Bipolar Brain! The first is this, that human beings are naturally different and of calamity, diverse. Education under No Child Left Behind is based on not diversity but conformity. What schools are encouraged to do is to find out what kids can do across a very narrow spectrum of achievement. The second principle that drives human life flourishing is curiosity. So in place of apa referencing curiosity, what we have is a culture of compliance. Our children and teachers are encouraged to follow routine algorithms rather than to excite that power of imagination and curiosity. And the third principle is this: that human life is life and adventures of calamity, inherently creative.

We all create our own lives through this restless process of imagining alternatives and possibilities, and what one of the roles of education is to awaken and develop these powers of creativity. Instead, what we have is a culture of standardization. Seth Godin Seth Godin: Quieting the Lizard Brain, a 99 u video Bestselling author and entrepreneur Seth Godin outlines a common creative affliction: sabotaging our projects just before we show them to the world. Godin targets our lizard brain as the source of positive these primal doubts, and implores us to thrash at the beginning of life projects so that we can ship on time and on budget. he states that everyone is creative; the important thing is to ship (your product, i.e., do something with your idea) Seth Godin: How to get your ideas to spread - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) In a world of too many options and too little time, our obvious choice is to just ignore the ordinary stuff. Cleveland Design Competition Essay! Marketing guru Seth Godin spells out why, when it comes to life getting our attention, bad or bizarre ideas are more successful than boring ones other TED.com videos - most are 6-15 minutes Matt Ridley: When ideas have sex - a TED talk (you may need to penguin pronunciation watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) At TEDGlobal 2010, author Matt Ridley shows how, throughout history, the life of calamity engine of human progress has been the meeting and mating of ideas to make new ideas. It's not important how clever individuals are, he says; what really matters is how smart the collective brain is.

Matt Ridley argues that, through history, the engine of human progress and prosperity has been, and is, ideas having sex with each other. Erik Brynjolfsson: The key to growth? Race with the machines - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) As machines take on more jobs, many find themselves out of work or with raises indefinitely postponed. To Essay! Is this the life jane end of to and Medium Enteprises growth? No, says Erik Brynjolfsson -- its simply the growing pains of a radically reorganized economy.

A riveting case for why big innovations are ahead of us if we think of computers as our teammates. Be sure to watch the opposing viewpoint from Robert Gordon. Life And Adventures Of Calamity! Robert Gordon: The death of innovation, the end of Bipolar Brain growth - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on jane YouTube if TED videos are blocked) The US economy has been expanding wildly for two centuries. Are we witnessing the end of growth? Economist Robert Gordon lays out 4 reasons US growth may be slowing, detailing factors like epidemic debt and growing inequality, which could move the US into positive a period of life and adventures stasis we can't innovate our way out of. Be sure to watch the opposing viewpoint from Erik Brynjolfsson. Elizabeth Gilbert: Your elusive creative genius - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Elizabeth Gilbert muses on the impossible things we expect from Reference Guide to and Medium Essay, artists and geniuses -- and shares the life jane radical idea that, instead of the rare person being a genius, all of us have a genius.

It's a funny, personal and surprisingly moving talk. Slavery In America! TEDxBerkeley - Carl Bass - The New Rules of and adventures of calamity Innovation has five trends he believes are driving innovation David Kelley: How to build your creative confidence - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Is your school or workplace divided into creatives versus practical people? Yet surely, David Kelley suggests, creativity is not the domain of only a chosen few. To Small Enteprises Essay! Telling stories from and adventures of calamity jane, his legendary design career and his own life, he offers ways to build the confidence to penguin create. (From The Design Studio session at TED2012, guest-curated by life jane Chee Pearlman and David Rockwell.) Adam Savage: How simple ideas lead to scientific discoveries - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Adam Savage walks through two spectacular examples of economics profound scientific discoveries that came from simple, creative methods anyone could have followed -- Eratosthenes' calculation of the life and adventures of calamity jane Earth's circumference around 200 BC and Hippolyte Fizeau's measurement of the speed of light in 1849. Regina Dugan: From mach-20 glider to humming bird drone - a TED talk (you may need to positive watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) What would you attempt to do if you knew you could not fail? asks Regina Dugan, then director of DARPA, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

In this breathtaking talk she describes some of the extraordinary projects -- a robotic hummingbird, a prosthetic arm controlled by thought, and, well, the internet -- that her agency has created by not worrying that they might fail. Steven Johnson: Where good ideas come from life and adventures jane, - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) People often credit their ideas to Reference Guide to Small and Medium Enteprises individual Eureka! moments. But Steven Johnson shows how history tells a different story. His fascinating tour takes us from the liquid networks of London's coffee houses to Charles Darwin's long, slow hunch to today's high-velocity web. - he finishes with chance favors the connected mind Bart Knols: Cheese, dogs, and pills to end malaria - a TED talk (you may need to and adventures of calamity watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) We can use a mosquito's own instincts against her. At TEDxMaastricht speaker Bart Knols demos the imaginative solutions his team is developing to fight malaria -- including limburger cheese and a deadly pill.

Edward Tenner: Unintended consequences - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on Reference Guide YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Every new invention changes the world -- in ways both intentional and and adventures of calamity jane, unexpected. Positive Economics! Historian Edward Tenner tells stories that illustrate the under-appreciated gap between our ability to innovate and our ability to foresee the consequences. Charles Leadbeater: The era of open innovation - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) In this deceptively casual talk, Charles Leadbeater weaves a tight argument that innovation isn't just for life and adventures of calamity jane professionals anymore. Passionate amateurs, using new tools, are creating products and paradigms that companies can't. A researcher at Reference to and Medium, the London think tank Demos, Charles Leadbeater was early to notice the rise of and adventures of calamity amateur innovation -- great ideas from outside the traditional walls, from people who suddenly have the tools to collaborate, innovate and make their expertise known. Design Competition! Clay Shirky on institutions vs. Life And Adventures Of Calamity! collaboration - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) In this prescient 2005 talk, Clay Shirky shows how closed groups and companies will give way to looser networks where small contributors have big roles and positive, fluid cooperation replaces rigid planning. Howard Rheingold on and adventures collaboration - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Howard Rheingold talks about the coming world of collaboration, participatory media and collective action -- and how Wikipedia is really an outgrowth of our natural human instinct to work as a group. Slavery Punishments In America! Sunni Brown: Doodlers, unite! - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Studies show that sketching and doodling improve our comprehension -- and life and adventures jane, our creative thinking. So why do we still feel embarrassed when we're caught doodling in a meeting? Sunni Brown says: Doodlers, unite!

She makes the case for unlocking your brain via pad and slavery, pen. Jonah Lehrer: The Science of Insight Creation, 40 min. video from and adventures of calamity, Jonah Lehrer - contributing editor of Wired and author of How We Decide Science is getting harder. Finding notable, new facts is getting harder. Economics! So how can we increase our capacity for breakthroughs and insights? What can new disciplines like neuroscience teach us about the innovation process? Jonah Lehrer explores creativity from a scientific perspective and discusses questions such as why we have our best ideas in the shower. talks about the feeling of knowing such as the tip of the tongue phenomenon talks about and adventures of calamity, why brainstorming doesn't work - cites studies showing that allowing criticism leads to 7 times the number of useful ideas 24 hours later after folks have had time to think on their own outside the group we can all imagine more, if only we know how. 21st Century Enlightenment, RSAnimate talk by Matthew Taylor - how the idea of a new enlightenment can help us meet the Design Competition challenges we now face. Creativity Techniques - short descriptions of a whole passel of techniques. Roots of Innovation ( local copy, 2.7 Mb ), eJournal USA , State Department, Nov 2009 ( lower resolution, 800 Kb ) what is it? which cultures foster it? the life jane global geography of innovation how do complementary skills help? secrets of collaboration 2009 innovation index by country ranking.

Predicting Military Innovation, by Isaacson et al, RAND, 1999 Although military technology is increasingly available and affordable, not all states have the capacity to positive economics improve military effectiveness by life and adventures of calamity jane acquiring hardware. Integrative difficulties in Cleveland Design Competition command structures, doctrine and tactics, training, and support are common in the developing world, and life, many states will have to find some level of innovation to overcome such difficulties if they are to use military technologies effectively. Bipolar Chemistry! This annotated briefing documents a research effort aimed at of calamity jane, understanding and predicting how militaries may improve their battlefield effectiveness. The briefing first analyzes military innovation conceptually and then formulates a framework for predicting the likelihood of innovative success. Economics! The research synthesizes a broad literature on innovation and provides a useful tool for and adventures jane assessing future military developments.

Brain and Creativity Institute, University of Design Competition Southern California The mission of the Brain and Creativity Institute is to gather new knowledge about the human emotions, decision-making, memory, and communication, from a neurological perspective, and to apply this knowledge to the solution of life of calamity jane problems in the biomedical and sociocultural arenas. From Stone to Silicon: A Brief Survey of Innovation, by Cleveland Design Competition Husick, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Oct 2008 - top 25 innovations of of calamity all time. Toward More Innovative Program Management ( local copy ), by Perino, in Defense Acquisition Review Journal, Feb-Mar 2005 - results of research into the science and psychology of apa referencing journal innovation - using MBTI and FourSight assessment tools - includes formula for MBTI Creativity Index. Stimulating Innovation ( local copy ), by Kostoff, Office of Naval Research Science and Technology Innovation ( local copy ), by Kostoff, Office of Naval Research - compares literature-based and workshop-based approaches for stimulating innovation. Communication, Management Benchmark Study ( local copy ), Dept of life jane Energy -- includes chapters on networking, alliances, organizational culture, and innovation Innovation, especially organizational, short chapter, covers a lot Creativity, how to apa referencing journal cultivate, short chapter, covers a lot.

Creativity Web, resources for creativity and innovation 10 Kick Starts to Your Creativity Creativity Basics. Beyond Productivity: Information Technology, Innovation, and Creativity, National Academies Press, 2003 - addresses issues such as what makes people creative and how creative people work Leadership That Gets Results, by Daniel Goleman, in and adventures of calamity Harvard Business Review , - describes six leadership styles: Coercive, Authoritative, Affiliative, Democratic, Pacesetting and Coaching. - Should emotional intelligence play a role in the workplace? -- some questions to stimulate discussion Emotional Intelligence Resource List ( local copy ) EQ.org directory of internet Emotional Intelligence sites. EQ Emotional Intelligence tests online - mixed quality, try several and glean tidbits from the narratives. Jonah Lehrer: The Science of Insight Creation, 40 min. Reference Small Enteprises! video from Jonah Lehrer - contributing editor of Wired and author of How We Decide Science is getting harder. Finding notable, new facts is and adventures of calamity jane, getting harder. So how can we increase our capacity for breakthroughs and insights? What can new disciplines like neuroscience teach us about the innovation process? Jonah Lehrer explores creativity from a scientific perspective and discusses questions such as why we have our best ideas in Reference Guide to Small Enteprises Essay the shower. talks about the feeling of knowing such as the and adventures of calamity tip of the tongue phenomenon talks about why brainstorming doesn't work - cites studies showing that allowing criticism leads to Reference to and Medium 7 times the number of useful ideas 24 hours later after folks have had time to think on their own outside the group we can all imagine more, if only we know how. The Idea Center, with IdeaFisher software, commercial brainstorming tool, with modules for strategic planning, speeches/presentations, conflict resolution, and life jane, creative writing Memory Skills Joshua Foer: Feats of Bipolar Brain Essay memory anyone can do - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on and adventures of calamity jane YouTube if TED videos are blocked) There are people who can quickly memorize lists of journal thousands of numbers, the order of all the cards in life a deck (or ten!), and much more.

Science writer Joshua Foer describes the technique -- called the memory palace -- and shows off its most remarkable feature: anyone can learn how to use it, including him. Changing Minds in the Army: Why Its So Difficult and What To Do About It ( local copy ), by Gerras and Wong, U.S. Army War College, June 2013 The following pages discuss why it is so hard for Army senior leaders to change their minds. We do this by first introducing the concept of frames of reference and Cleveland Design Essay, then discuss how neuroscience sheds some light on why changing ones mind is not so easy. We then examine the role of life and adventures organizational variables on this process. Finally, we propose how strategic leaders might apply this knowledge to enhance the likelihood that as the environment evolves, they are able to actually change their minds. Penguin! In large hierarchical organizations such as the Army, consistency of life thought is the norm, and not the exception. Slavery Punishments In America! No leader wants to appear as vacillating or be accused of hemming and hawing on key issues. Yet history abounds with negative examples of of calamity leaders failing to change their minds despite new evidence or fresh information. Thinking in a Foreign Language Makes Decisions More Rational, by adelie penguin pronunciation Keim, in Wired online journal, Apr 2012 A series of experiments on more than 300 people from the U.S. and life, Korea found that thinking in a second language reduced deep-seated, misleading biases that unduly influence how risks and benefits are perceived. The researchers believe a second language provides a useful cognitive distance from automatic processes, promoting analytical thought and reducing unthinking, emotional reaction.

Deadly Mind Traps, by Wise, Psychology Today , Jan 2012 Simple cognitive errors can have disastrous consequencesunless you know how to watch out for them. [The article has specific examples of adelie pronunciation each of the errors below.] Redlining. Anytime we plan a mission that requires us to set a safety parameter, there's a risk that in the heat of the life moment we'll be tempted to overstep it. The Domino Effect. In stressful situations, you see a failure in the working memory, which is Essay, involved in inhibiting impulses, says Sian Beilock, a psychology professor at the University of jane Chicago. People lose the ability to think about the long-term consequences of their actions. Situational Blindness. Full situational awareness requires incorporating outside information into economics a model of of calamity jane your environment, and using that model to Reference to Small Enteprises Essay predict how the life of calamity jane situation might change. If all you're doing is following the line of the GPS, and it turns out to be wrong, you'll be completely clueless about economics, what to life and adventures do next. Double or Nothing.

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky first pointed out back in 1979, we tend to punishments in america avoid risk when contemplating potential gains but seek risk to avoid losses. Life Of Calamity! For instance, if you offer people a choice between a certain loss of $1,000 and a 50-50 chance of losing $2,500, the majority will opt for the riskier option, to avoid a definite financial hit. Bipolar Brain Chemistry Essay! Bending the Map. Such errors of overconfidence are due to a phenomenon psychologists call confirmation bias . Life And Adventures Of Calamity Jane! When trying to solve a problem or troubleshoot a problem, we get fixated on a specific option or hypothesis, explains Kring, and ignore contradictory evidence and other information that could help us make a better decision. Heuristics and Biases in Military Decision Making ( local copy ), by Williams, in slavery punishments in america Military Review , Sep-Oct 2010 Fortunately, some have come to see the shortcomings of the classical MDMP process. It is life and adventures, illsuited for the analysis of problems exhibiting high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. When combining hindsight bias and retrievability biases, we potentially fail to guard against journal an event popularized euphemistically as a black swan . Instead of the of calamity jane usual striving toward a best practices methodology, which is also full of potential heuristic biases, reflective practice calls for valuing the processes that challenge assimilative knowledge (i.e. continuous truth seeking) and by embracing the inevitable conflict associated with truth seeking. Ben Goldacre: Battling bad science, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to Design Essay watch it on YouTube if the life of calamity TED.com version won't run on your computer) Every day there are news reports of new health advice, but how can you know if they're right? Doctor and epidemiologist Ben Goldacre shows us, at high speed, the ways evidence can be distorted, from the adelie penguin pronunciation blindingly obvious nutrition claims to the very subtle tricks of the pharmaceutical industry. Curing Analytic Pathologies: Pathways to Improved Intelligence Analysis ( local copy ), by life jane Cooper, CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence, Dec 2005 The Analytic Pathologies framework yields four insights that are crucial both to accurate diagnosis and to developing effective remedies.

First, the framework enables analysts to Reference Guide to and Medium Enteprises identify individual analytic impediments and life, determine their sources. Second, it prompts analysts to detect the systemic pathologies that result from closely-coupled networks and to find the linkages among the individual impediments. Third, it demonstrates that each of these networks, and thus each systemic pathology, usually spans multiple levels within the hierarchy of the Intelligence Community. Fourth, the framework highlights the need to treat both the systemic pathologies and the individual impediments by focusing effective remedial measures on Essay the right target and at the appropriate level. -- very good examination of many elements of critical thinking, with examples ( PDF version ) Check out Part III - Cognitive Biases.

Countering Terrorism: Integration of Practice and Theory ( local copy ), overview of jane conference at FBI Academy, Feb 2002 from apa referencing, Appendix 8: Psychology of Bias These investigators found that there is a general bias, based on both innate predispositions and experience, in animals and humans, to life and adventures of calamity jane give greater weight to negative events or attributes . This is evident in four ways: (a) negative potency (negative entities are stronger than the equivalent positive entities), (b) steeper negative gradients (the negativity of positive economics negative events grows more rapidly with approach to them in life of calamity space or time than does the positivity of positive events), (c) negativity dominance (combinations of Bipolar Brain Essay negative and positive entities yield evaluations that are more negative than the algebraic sum of individual subjective evaluations would predict), and. (d) negative differentiation (negative entities are more varied, yield more complex conceptual representations, and engage a wider response repertoire). The authors review this taxonomy, with emphasis on negativity dominance, including literary, historical, religious, and cultural sources, as well as the psychological literatures on learning, attention, impression formation, contagion, moral judgment, development, and memory. They suggest that one feature of negative events that make them dominant is that negative entities are more contagious than positive entities. Tali Sharot: The optimism bias - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Are we born to be optimistic, rather than realistic?

Tali Sharot shares new research that suggests our brains are wired to look on the bright side -- and how that can be both dangerous and beneficial. Daniel Kahneman: The riddle of experience vs. memory - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Using examples from vacations to life colonoscopies, Nobel laureate and founder of behavioral economics Daniel Kahneman reveals how our experiencing selves and our remembering selves perceive happiness differently. This new insight has profound implications for economics, public policy -- and our own self-awareness. Widely regarded as the world's most influential living psychologist, Daniel Kahneman won the adelie Nobel in Economics for his pioneering work in behavioral economics -- exploring the irrational ways we make decisions about risk. Sensemaking David Moore Sensemaking: A Structure for of calamity jane an Intelligence Revolution ( local copy ), by Moore, National Defense Intelligence College (NDIC), March 2011 Mindfulness, wicked problems, paradigm shifts, intuitive thinking, validation, intelligence rigor, limitations, and more Sensemaking, whereby intelligence professionals would work with executive decisionmakers to explain data that are sparse, noisy, and uncertain, requires an interpreter and experienced champion to bring about a practicable understanding and acceptance of the concept among intelligence practitioners. David Moore has accomplished that feat. Further, he, along with collaborators in chapters 5 and in america, 7, demonstrate how sensemaking can be accomplished as a collaborative enterprise.

Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis ( local copy, 1.4 Mb low res ), by Moore, National Defense Intelligence College (NDIC) occasional paper no. 14, March 2007 ( local copy, 12.1 Mb high res ) - includes generic and life and adventures of calamity, intel-specific discussion, as well as an appendix which is the Reference Enteprises Essay NSA's Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus NSA's Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus - incudes plans for and adventures of calamity jane 10 classes, as well as a template for summarizing articles/readings. Failure Being Wrong - Why They Work This was the pivotal insight of the Scientific Revolution: that the advancement of knowledge depends on apa referencing current theories collapsing in the face of new insights and discoveries. In this model of life and adventures progress, errors do not lead us away from the truth. Instead, they edge us incrementally toward it. Kathryn Schulz, in Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error. Leaders can let you fail and yet not let you be a failure. --- General Stanley McChrystal.

Science is always wrong. Apa Referencing Journal! It never solves a problem without creating 10 more. --- George Bernard Shaw. Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go. The chief trick to life and adventures of calamity jane making good mistakes is not to Bipolar Brain hide them especially not from yourself. Life Of Calamity Jane! Instead of turning away in denial when you make a mistake, you should become a connoisseur of Cleveland your own mistakes, turning them over in your mind as if they were works of art, which in a way they are. Of Calamity Jane! The trick is to take advantage of the particular details of the mess youve made, so that your next attempt will be informed by it and not just another blind stab in the dark. Daniel Dennett, in Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking.

Kathryn Schulz: On being wrong - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Most of us will do anything to avoid being wrong. Positive! But what if we're wrong about life of calamity jane, that? Wrongologist Kathryn Schulz makes a compelling case for not just admitting but embracing our fallibility. Tim Harford: Trial, error and journal, the God complex - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Economics writer Tim Harford studies complex systems -- and finds a surprising link among the successful ones: they were built through trial and error. In this sparkling talk from TEDGlobal 2011, he asks us to embrace our randomness and start making better mistakes. Adapt: Why success always starts with failure, video by Tim Harford (book by life and adventures of calamity the same title is on the Air Force Chief of Staff's 2012 Reading List) Tim's Principles of Guide Small Enteprises Failure: #1 - Be willing to life of calamity jane fail . a lot.

#2 - Fail on a survivable scale. Eddie Obeng: Smart failure for a fast-changing world - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) The world is changing much more rapidly than most people realize, says business educator Eddie Obeng -- and creative output cannot keep up. In this spirited talk, he highlights three important changes we should understand for better productivity, and calls for a stronger culture of smart failure. Seth Godin on Failing Until You Succeed, video of an interview for entrepreneur.com taking risks, challenging status quo, starting a business. Ignorance - a valuable resource Thoroughly conscious ignorance is the prelude to every real advance in science. --- James Clerk Maxwell. In an honest search for knowledge, you quite often have to Guide to abide by ignorance for an indefinite period. Stuart Firestein: The pursuit of ignorance - a TED talk (you may need to life and adventures watch it on economics YouTube if TED videos are blocked) What does real scientific work look like? As neuroscientist Stuart Firestein jokes: It looks a lot less like the life of calamity scientific method and punishments in america, a lot more like farting around . in the dark.

In this witty talk, Firestein gets to the heart of science as it is life and adventures, really practiced and Cleveland Design Competition, suggests that we should value what we don't know -- or high-quality ignorance -- just as much as what we know. Red Teams, Red Teaming, Red Team Thinking. University of life and adventures of calamity Foreign Military and positive, Cultural Studies (UFMCS) The University of and adventures of calamity jane Foreign Military and Cultural Studies (UFMCS) at Fort Leavenworth is an Army-directed education, research, and training initiative for Army organizations, joint organizations, and other government agencies. Adelie! Red Teaming is a structured, iterative process, executed by highly trained, educated, and and adventures, practiced team members that provides commanders an independent capability to fully explore alternatives to Cleveland Design Essay plans, operations, concepts, organizations, and capabilities in the context of the operational environment and from our partners and adversaries perspectives. UFMCS educates Red Team Leaders, Members, and Practitioners; researches best practices for Red Teaming tactics, techniques, and procedures; and develops a reach-back capability to provide commanders and staffs alternative perspectives. Graduates of life and adventures Leader and Member courses receive an apa referencing, additional skill identifier (ASI). UFMCS The Applied Critical Thinking Handbook (formerly the Red Team Handbook), v. 8.1, Sep 2016 ( local copy ) We educate people to of calamity jane develop a disposition of curiosity, and help them become aware of biases and behavior that prevent them from real positive change in apa referencing journal the ways they seek solutions and engage others. And Adventures Jane! UFMCS Liberating Structures Handbook ( local copy ) Liberating structures are frameworks that make it possible for adelie penguin people and organizations to create, to do new things, to be innovative. Life Of Calamity! These are processes or rules that can be put in place to Cleveland Design Competition encourage people to be free, creative, and get results, rather than find themselves oppressed, constrained, confined, or powerless. For things to really change, structural elements need to change, too.

Otherwise change is short-lived. Liberating structures are the forms that make it easy for people to be generative together and make a significant impact with their creativity. UFMCS Group Think Mitigation Guide ( local copy ) Our education involves more than Socratic discussion and brainstorming. We borrow techniques, methods, frameworks, and best practices from several sources and disciplines to create an education and practical application method that we find to be the life of calamity best safeguard against journal individual and organizational tendencies toward biases, errors in cognition, and groupthink. UFMCS The Applied Critical Thinking Handbook (formerly the Red Team Handbook), v. 7.0, Jan 2015 ( local copy ) Our methods and education involve more than Socratic discussion and brainstorming. We believe that good decision processes are essential to good outcomes. To that end, our curriculum is rich in divergent processes, red teaming tools, and liberating structures, all aimed at decision support. Of Calamity! UFMCS Red Team Handbook, Apr 2012 ( local copy ) Much of the material directly applies to critical thinking and pronunciation, becoming better at it. Life Jane! Each section can almost stand alone, and Section XI Structured Analytic Techniques has a large variety of tools/techniques for overcoming mind-sets including 9 Step Cultural Methodology and penguin, String of Pearls tool and Analysis of Competing Hypotheses and and adventures of calamity jane, a passel of others. Seeing Red: Creating a Red-Team Capability for the Blue Force ( local copy ), by Fontenot, Military Review , Sep-Oct 2005 - includes list of economics Red Team best practices, and a list of why Red Teams sometimes fail. Critical Thinking You want to have a mind thats open enough to accept radical new ideas, but not so open that your brains fall out.

Michael Shermer, editor of Skeptic Magazine. Minds are like parachutes. They only function when they are open. Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited to all we now know and life and adventures of calamity, understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know and penguin, understand. Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted. Trying to get people to reason in a way that is and adventures jane, not natural for Essay them. is like trying to teach a pig to sing. You don't accomplish anything and you annoy the pig. E. Jeffrey Conklin William Weil.

Men believe what they prefer. If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts. But if he will be content to begin with doubts he shall end in and adventures certainties. My story is proud. The entry of truth with chalk to penguin pronunciation mark those minds which are capable to life lodge and harbour it. For myself, I found that I was fitted for nothing so well as for the study of truth; as having a Mind nimble and versatile enough to apa referencing journal catch the Resemblances of Things (which is the chief point) and at of calamity jane, the same time steady enough to positive fix and distinguish their Subtler Differences; as being gifted by Nature with Desire to seek, patience to life of calamity jane Doubt, fondness to positive economics Meditate, slowness to assert, readiness to consider, carefulness to dispose and set in order; and as being a man that neither affects what is new nor admires what is old, and that hates every kind of Imposture. Of Calamity Jane! So I thought my Nature had a kind of familiarity and Relationship with Truth. Francis Bacon, On the Interpretation of Brain Essay Nature , 1603. See red team thinking , especially the UFMCS Red Team Handbook.

Improve Your Critical Thinking, resources at Coping.us - includes summaries/lists of many methods and theories Overview of of calamity Critical Thinking Critical Thinking Model of Problem Solving Watch out for Common Fallacies Online Resources for Improving Critical Thinking. A Way to Teach Critical Thinking Skills so Learners Will Continue Using Them in Operations ( local copy ), by Griffin and McClary, in Military Review , Nov-Dec 2015 However, despite both instructors and students enjoying the Reference Guide to Small Enteprises critical thinking classes, many graduates were failing to think critically where it mattered moston the of calamity job. The first key is to establish an effective talent management program at the earliest possible opportunity, preferably from the start. Until an organization gets talent management right, with a high degree of person-job and person-organization fit, it will have very limited success with its other functions. Journal! The second key to teaching critical thinking skills is to ensure the organizational climate values critical and innovative thinking. Building upon, and made possible by, a talent management program, an organization demonstrates its commitment to these values by expecting and rewarding critical thinking and innovation. Two Faces of Critical Thinking for the Reflective Military Practitioner ( local copy ), by life Paparone, in Military Review , Nov-Dec 2014 Critical thinking has become quite the catchphrase. Yet, there is penguin, little published in life jane military circles demonstrating a philosophical examination of what critical thinking means; hence, my intent here is to start that conversation.1 My argument calls upon two faces of critical thinkinga metaphor that conveys a dualistic approach toward a more reflective military practice. Education for Critical Thinking ( local copy ), by Williams, in Military Review , Jan-Feb 2013 A better strategy for the Armys PME is to adopt an educational philosophy that focuses less on positive knowledge and content and more on life jane the ability to in america question and argue. Critical thinking means the ability to construct and defend an argument using reason, applying intellectual standards of epistemic responsibility, and recognizing and of calamity jane, countering logical fallacies as we see them in others and ourselves.

If we pay attention to our doctrine, this shift in thinking about professional education is a strategic imperative. We now accept as common knowledge that military operations defy rules, calling them instead human endeavors, characterized by the continuous, mutual adaptation of give and Design, take, moves, and countermoves among all participants. We agree that war is life and adventures jane, about identifying and solving ill-defined problems where experts can and do disagree on the range of Competition solutions. The problem is that we have a PME system that relies on an educational approach in which instructors are guides for each new class to rediscover the same hackneyed truths as their predecessors. Of Calamity Jane! Mission command requires that we do more than allow for minor heresies. Positive Economics! It demands that we develop hereticsleaders capable of challenging convention to create imaginative solutions regardless of the operational environment. An inquiry-based educational approach is the best way to develop these heretics because it is about questioning, and good questioners unequivocally make better thinkers. Army Leadership Development and Leadership ( local copy ), by Hinds and Steele, in Military Review , Jan-Feb 2012 Colonels, lieutenant colonels, and life of calamity, chief warrant fives were also surveyed about what skills were lacking for recent [PME] graduates. The most common response was appropriate critical thinking and problem solving skills.

Developing Creative and journal, Critical Thinkers ( local copy ), by Allen and Gerras, in Military Review , Nov-Dec 2009 This article presents a definition of strategic thinking and life of calamity, then focuses on the two key antecedents of strategic thinkingcreative and critical thinkingand presents the Army War College approach to educating students in these skills. Adelie Pronunciation! . Given these challenges and obstacles, how do we make Army leaders better at creative and life of calamity, critical thinking? First, we must teach leaders the knowledge, skills, and terminology associated with thinking competencies. These are acquirable intellectual skills. As suggested earlier, the best way to teach thinking skills to Cleveland Design Army leaders is to provide context-dependent skill development. Critical Thinking and the Development of Innovative Problem Solvers ( local copy ), by Drew, Naval War College, 14 Feb 2005 Integrating critical thinking into officer development requires the shifting of knowledge focused classes to self-study, teaching and using argument/concept mapping to reveal students reasoning, and using the life of calamity jane Universal Intellectual Standards as the basis of feedback on their reasoning. UFMCS The Applied Critical Thinking Handbook (formerly the Red Team Handbook), v. 8.1, Sep 2016 ( local copy ) We educate people to develop a disposition of curiosity, and help them become aware of biases and behavior that prevent them from real positive change in the ways they seek solutions and engage others. UFMCS Liberating Structures Handbook ( local copy ) Liberating structures are frameworks that make it possible for people and organizations to create, to do new things, to be innovative. These are processes or rules that can be put in economics place to encourage people to be free, creative, and get results, rather than find themselves oppressed, constrained, confined, or powerless. For things to really change, structural elements need to change, too. Otherwise change is short-lived. Liberating structures are the forms that make it easy for people to be generative together and make a significant impact with their creativity.

UFMCS Group Think Mitigation Guide ( local copy ) Our education involves more than Socratic discussion and and adventures of calamity, brainstorming. We borrow techniques, methods, frameworks, and best practices from several sources and disciplines to create an education and adelie, practical application method that we find to be the best safeguard against individual and organizational tendencies toward biases, errors in cognition, and groupthink. UFMCS The Applied Critical Thinking Handbook (formerly the Red Team Handbook), v. 7.0, Jan 2015 ( local copy ) Our methods and education involve more than Socratic discussion and brainstorming. We believe that good decision processes are essential to good outcomes. To that end, our curriculum is rich in life divergent processes, red teaming tools, and liberating structures, all aimed at apa referencing, decision support. UFMCS Red Team Handbook, Apr 2012 ( local copy ) Much of the material directly applies to life and adventures of calamity jane critical thinking and becoming better at apa referencing, it. Each section can almost stand alone, and life jane, Section XI Structured Analytic Techniques has a large variety of tools/techniques for overcoming mind-sets including 9 Step Cultural Methodology and String of adelie pronunciation Pearls tool and Analysis of Competing Hypotheses and a passel of of calamity others. Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis ( local copy, 1.4 Mb low res ), by Moore, National Defense Intelligence College (NDIC) occasional paper no.

14, March 2007 ( local copy, 12.1 Mb high res ) - includes generic and positive, intel-specific discussion, as well as an appendix which is the NSA's Critical Thinking and life of calamity jane, Structured Analysis Class Syllabus NSA's Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus - incudes plans for 10 classes, as well as a template for summarizing articles/readings. Critical Thinking issue of Military Intelligence Professional Bulletin ( local copy ), July-September 2006 This issue of Small Enteprises Essay MIPB focuses on the integration of critical thinking and scientific inquiry throughout the military intelligence curricula. It is our contention that critical thinking and problem solving skills are best taught in learning environments that encourage students to consistently engage in the implementation of the scientific method. To do this, instructors come to see themselves less as the source of knowledge and more as facilitators of learning. And Adventures Jane! Although most courses within USAIC include practical exercises, many continue to include hours of lecture, followed by apa referencing objective tests. Unfortunately, most students do not long retain much of what they have memorized.

Conversely, retention increases dramatically when they use what they have learned to conceptualize and to solve problems. Therefore, critical thinking can be integrated into the curriculum by adjusting teaching styles so that students are challenged to reflect on concrete learning experiences (a lecture, a film, a field trip), ask questions, pose hypotheses, and test those hypotheses against reality. When students are encouraged to use the life and adventures of calamity jane scientific method on a regular basis, they become actively engaged in critical thinking; and as a result, they will become more sophisticated and effective decisionmakers. Team/Collaborative Critical Thinking Team Critical Thinking: Foundations Research Directions, briefing by Freeman and Serfaty, at 2002 conference Collaborative Critical Thinking, briefing by economics Freeman et al, Collaboration and and adventures jane, Knowledge Management Workshop, 2003. Integrating Critical Thinking in the Curriculum of the Command and Reference Small and Medium, General Staff College ( local copy ), by Doyle, CGSC, 2008 The Command and and adventures of calamity, General Staff College endeavors to instill critical thinking as a skill practiced by its graduates. To this end the college has introduced the concept of critical thinking as a class within the journal core curriculum. And Adventures! Students must take a critical thinking test both before and after the block of core instruction, and numerous graphic training aids line the classroom walls in adelie an attempt to reinforce these ideas. However, it remains questionable whether or not the life and adventures of calamity jane concepts of critical thought, that are taught by the school, have made their way into the course work and class structure within the college.

This thesis will contend that to Competition create critical thinkers CGSC must incorporate the tenets of critical thinking throughout its curriculum and life and adventures of calamity, course design. Positive! Grading rubrics for life and adventures jane papers and tests, exam questions written to and Medium Essay steer answers in a certain correct direction all to a degree contradict the tenets of critical thought, yet exist within the course of study. And Adventures! Ideally, CGSC can stand as a seminal experience in the development of officers. An experience akin to that found in civilian graduate level education can be attained, but it will require a cultural revolution within the faculty to transition from Design, a model based on training to a model based on education. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis ( local copy ), by of calamity Heuer, 1999, for CIA -- very good examination of many elements of critical thinking, with examples ( PDF version ) [from the introduction] Dick Heuer's writings make three fundamental points about the slavery punishments cognitive challenges intelligence analysts face: The mind is poorly wired to deal effectively with both inherent uncertainty (the natural fog surrounding complex, indeterminate intelligence issues) and life and adventures jane, induced uncertainty (the man-made fog fabricated by denial and deception operations). Even increased awareness of cognitive and journal, other unmotivated biases, such as the tendency to see information confirming an already-held judgment more vividly than one sees disconfirming information, does little by jane itself to help analysts deal effectively with uncertainty. Tools and techniques that gear the analyst's mind to apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex issues on which information is incomplete, ambiguous, and Reference Guide to Small Essay, often deliberately distorted.

Key examples of such intellectual devices include techniques for structuring information, challenging assumptions, and exploring alternative interpretations. Curing Analytic Pathologies: Pathways to Improved Intelligence Analysis ( local copy ), by Cooper, CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence, Dec 2005 The Analytic Pathologies framework yields four insights that are crucial both to accurate diagnosis and to developing effective remedies. First, the framework enables analysts to identify individual analytic impediments and and adventures, determine their sources. Second, it prompts analysts to apa referencing detect the systemic pathologies that result from and adventures jane, closely-coupled networks and to slavery in america find the linkages among the individual impediments. Third, it demonstrates that each of these networks, and thus each systemic pathology, usually spans multiple levels within the hierarchy of the Intelligence Community. Fourth, the and adventures of calamity jane framework highlights the need to positive economics treat both the systemic pathologies and the individual impediments by and adventures of calamity focusing effective remedial measures on the right target and at apa referencing, the appropriate level.

Thinking and Writing: Cognitive Science and and adventures jane, Intelligence Analysis ( local copy ), by penguin pronunciation Sinclair, CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence, Feb 2010 revision of 1984 monograph We are, in fact, better at generating problems than at and adventures jane, solving them. Rarely can we say unequivocally that we have solved a problem, particularly if it is Reference to and Medium Enteprises Essay, a hard one. Rather we keep plugging away at it heuristically. Often enough we manage to satisficeto achieve a best-possible solution so that we can take up something else. The problem has not gone away and we do not really delude ourselves that it has. But being realists (i.e., heuristic individuals to the core), we accept the and adventures jane results and Enteprises, live with themrecognizing that sometime we may find ourselves returning to the problem once more. As I have noted, this is a sloppy way of doing business, but we sell ourselves short if we do not acknowledge its strengths. Life And Adventures Jane! It deals as well as anything yet developed with the fact, to positive use Jerome Bruners words, that our ability to life and adventures of calamity deal with knowledge is hugely exceeded by the potential knowledge contained in mans environment.

A Mini-Guide for Teaching Critical Thinking, by Bean and Markham, Ira C. Eaker College for apa referencing journal Professional Development (ECPD), 2008 This guide is designed to provide general information, strategies and a step-by-step process on Critical Thinking, two lesson plans which can be helpful in effectively teaching Critical Thinking, a case study which lends itself to thinking critically to come to and adventures of calamity a desirable resolution, and lastly, some recommended reading resources for Reference Guide Small providing a foundation to life and assisting instructors in the classroom and with student consultation. A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis ( local copy ), posted by CIA, March 2009 This primer highlights structured analytic techniquessome widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to apa referencing journal the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of life and adventures how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Chemistry Essay! Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of life and adventures of calamity techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions. CIA Compendium of Analytic Tradecraft Notes ( local copy ) - CIA has made this edition [1995] of the compendium available to the public to help shed light on how the Directorate of Intelligence meets the daily challenges of apa referencing journal providing timely, accurate, and rigorous analysis to intelligence consumers Critical Thinking: Plugging (or Moving) a Hole in life Our Swiss Cheese ( local copy ), by Johns, Assistant U.S. Attorney, 2009 Relying largely on the militarys design, testing and implementation, this paper proposes Critical Thinking (CT) training to augment current Recognition Primed Decisionmaking training (RPD).

CT training reduces normal human decision error in Bipolar Brain individual and jane, group processes. Individual CT can reduce or, in a specific case, close a hole in the Swiss Cheese model. In a group, CT can also move the hole out of adelie penguin pronunciation alignment. Combining CT training with Decision Support System improvements has reduced decision error in and adventures of calamity the military as shown by tests with active duty warfighters in battlefield simulations. Critical Reasoning for Beginners, by the Faculty of Philosophy, University of Oxford - videos, audios, and slavery in america, slides (can play the and adventures of calamity jane audio while viewing the Cleveland Competition Essay slides, and avoid downloading 600+ Mb videos) In this six-week course delivered by Marianne Talbot, you will learn all about arguments, how to life and adventures jane identify and Chemistry, evaluate them, and how not to mistake bad arguments for good. Critical Thinking - tools to test/measure The Critical Thinking Rubric, Critical Thinking Project, Washington State University - assesses skill at life and adventures of calamity, each step of the problem solving process, including ability of positive individual to identify and consider influence by the context of the issue Seven dimensions to be assessed: Identifies and summarizes the problem/question at issue (and/or the life source's position). Identifies and presents the STUDENT'S OWN hypothesis, perspective and position as it is journal, important to the analysis of the and adventures issue. Identifies and considers OTHER salient perspectives and positions that are important to the analysis. Identifies and economics, assesses the key assumptions . Identifies and life of calamity, assesses the in america quality of supporting data/evidence and provides additional data/evidence related to the issue. Identifies and considers the influence of the context on and adventures of calamity jane the issue. Design! [they list some sample contexts to and adventures of calamity consider] Identifies and assesses conclusions, implications and consequences . Holistic Critical Thinking Scoring Rubric, by Facione and Facione California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST) Test of Every Day Reasoning (TER) CRITO ( local copy ), a step-by-step method for creating a critical analysis essay, courtesy of Dr.

David K. Johnson, Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts C - State a C onclusion or claim R - State R easons or evidence meant to Guide to Small Enteprises Essay convince the reader . I - Test the I nference, or argument T - Test the T ruth of the R O - Construct the strongest imaginable O bjections, and of calamity jane, respond to them. Active Learning Strategies to Promote Critical Thinking, by Walker, William Paterson University - a good summary of educational references regarding critical thinking. CriticalThinking.org - with 35 Dimensions of Critical Thought, GOOD series of short articles on affective and cognitive strategies, incl such items as listening critically. Evaluating Critical Thinking Skills ( local copy ), from U.S. Naval Academy's Center for Teaching and Learning -- criteria-based evaluation guide. Manual of Job-Related Thinking Skills ( local copy ), Department of Homeland Security - including deductive reasoning, reasoning with sets, inductive reasoning about real-world events, and statistical reasoning - includes quizzes throughout. How Critical Thinking Shapes the Military Decision Making Process ( local copy ), by Small and Medium Usry, Naval War College, 2004 A lack of Combatant Commander (COCOM) critical thinking in the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) is life and adventures, a causal factor in Bipolar Brain Essay military failure at the operational level. However, critical thinking can improve the jane MDMP of the COCOM.

This paper analyzes the Guide Small and Medium Essay effects of critical thinking on the combatant commanders decision making process by: defining critical thinking; illustrating its impact on intuitive and analytical decisions; demonstrating barriers to critical thinking and proposing practical ways to use critical thinking in the MDMP. Army officers are increasingly required to operate in situations they have not previously encountered and for which they have not been trained. In these situations, the ability to of calamity critically think through a problem, rather than apply previously learned solutions and procedures, is Chemistry, crucial to Army success. This effort began in 2000, with the life jane development of a theoretical model of critical thinking and and Medium Essay, the identification of life and adventures of calamity eight high pay-off critical thinking skills for Army Battle Command. Critical Thinking Training for Chemistry Essay Army Schoolhouse and Distance Learning ( local copy ), ARI Newsletter, August 2003 - High Pay-off Skills to life and adventures of calamity deal with the uncertain - includes a diagram of Conceptual Model of Critical Thinking and expansion on Reference Guide Small Essay the following High Pay-off Critical Thinking Skills for Army Battle Command Seek a clear statement of the and adventures of calamity jane problem. Recognize main point in positive a message. Visualize plans to see if they achieve goals. Construct a plausible story that ties all incidents together. (. uncovering relationships, exploring alternative explanations of the information and of calamity, keeping an open mind to Small detecting patterns) Recognize fallibility and bias in own opinion. Generalize from specific instances to of calamity jane broader classes. Adopt multiple perspectives in Design Competition interpreting events.

Determine when to seek more information. A Three-Part Theory of jane Critical Thinking: Dialogue, Mental Models, and Reliability ( local copy ) This chapter can only Reference Small Essay, scratch the surface in trying to respond to life and adventures jane these challenges. It is a very brief abridgment of positive Cohen, Salas, Riedel (2001), which provides more depth and detail, but is and adventures of calamity, still only punishments, a start. The research had two main goals: First, to draw a map that links disparate regions of the critical thinking field, and second, to use the map to navigate toward a more insightful theory of critical thinking, which will support the development more effective methods for life and adventures of calamity jane improving it in Army battlefield command teams. The essence of penguin our theory is that critical thinking skill is life of calamity jane, exemplified by asking questions about alternative possibilities in order to achieve some objective . Chemistry! Asking and answering questions is a skill of dialogue . Alternative possibilities are represented by mental models . A process of questioning mental models is of calamity, adopted because of Design Essay its reliability for achieving the of calamity purposes of the economics participants within the available time. Adaptive Thinking Training For Tactical Leaders ( local copy ), by Lussier and life of calamity jane, Shadrick, U.S. Army Research Institute, 2004 ARI newsletters Training Small Unit Leader Adaptive Thinking Skills: Lessons Learned from Combat Training Center Exercises ( local copy ) Common Thinking and Judgment Problems Observed in Small Unit Leaders Difficulty reacting to novel situations unable or slow to journal think on your feet Overly reactive. Difficulty in thinking like the enemy Focused on making quick decisions before fully analyzing the situation Inadequate monitoring of the situation or responding to cues in the environment Difficulty translating orders from higher echelons into actions Tunnel vision Overly focused on distracters; not on the big picture Difficulty shifting roles (e.g., combat to mediation within the same mission) Limited cultural awareness and necessary communication skills (specifically in life of calamity dealing with civilians) Critical Thinking as Dialogue: a New Approach to Training Critical Thinking ( local copy ), ARI Newsletter, October 2004 (whole issue (3 Mb)) Critical Thinking Training for Army Schoolhouse and Distance Learning ( local copy ), ARI Newsletter, August 2003 - High Pay-off Skills to deal with the uncertain - includes a diagram of Conceptual Model of positive Critical Thinking and life and adventures jane, expansion on the High Pay-off Critical Thinking Skills for Army Battle Command Training Adaptive Leaders ( local copy ), ARI Newsletter, May 2003 - train a performance - a thinking performance - using the Think Like a Commander vignettes to improve ability to identify critical information Tacit Knowledge for slavery punishments Military Leadership ( local copy ), ARI Newsletter, Spring 2001 - Tacit knowledge scores, a better predictor of leadership effectiveness Training Critical Thinking Skills for Battle Command: How to Think, Not What to and adventures Think ( local copy ), ARI Newsletter, Spring 2001 - Improve critical thinking to improve battle command tactical performance Training and Assessment of Decision-Making Skills in Virtual Environments ( local copy ), ARI Newsletter, Spring 2001 - This research showed a linkage between decision-making and Brain, situation awareness

James Garrett Shaylyn Romney Garrett - Teaching Critical Thinking in the Middle East, a TEDxDeadSea (independently organized TED event) video They are committed educators whose work in Jordan has focused on promoting critical and creative thinking. Their curriculum, called Brain Camp, is an educational intervention that focuses on building eight critical thinking skills with the aim of life and adventures of calamity equipping the Design rising generation of Jordanians to become creative and effective problem solvers. Center for life and adventures Critical Thinking, aka Critical Thinking Community includes a library of short articles ranging from Design Essay, Socratic teaching to assessing thinking skills Other resources include the following Valuable Intellectual Traits. Rudyard Kipling, from The Elephant's Child in Just So Stories I keep six honest serving-men. (They taught me all I knew); Their names are What and Why and When. And How and Where and Who. [ed. - answering those six questions is often a good place to life and adventures jane begin - and why is positive, usually the life of calamity jane one that pushes your writing past the knowledge level and slavery punishments in america, demonstrates/reveals your insights]

Occam's Razor, published 1328 (also spelled Ockham) also known as the Law of Parsimony or Principle of Economy or Principle of Simplicity Principle from William of Occam (logician and Franciscan friar, c. 1285-1350 or 1280-1349) -- stating that given multiple theories to and adventures of calamity explain a set of observations the simplest explanation is to be preferred Pluralitas non est ponenda sine neccesitate or non sunt multiplicanda entia praeter necessitatem - Entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily. Never multiply explanations or make them more complicated than necessary. An explanation should be as simple and direct as possible Einstein's version -- make things as simple as possible - but no simpler modern variation -- Keep It Simple Stupid (KISS) Sherlock Holmes I have already explained to journal you that what is out of the common is usually a guide rather than a hindrance. And Adventures Of Calamity Jane! In solving a problem of this sort, the grand thing is to be able to reason backward. That is a very useful accomplishment, and Design Competition Essay, a very easy one, but people do not practise it much. Life And Adventures Jane! In the everyday affairs of life it is more useful to reason forward, and so the other comes to be neglected.

There are fifty who can reason synthetically for one who can reason analytically. [in A Study in Scarlet , 1887] How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable , must be the truth? [in The Sign of Four , 1890] That process, said I, starts upon the supposition that when you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the Reference Guide Enteprises Essay truth. It may well be that several explanations remain, in which case one tries test after test until one or other of them has a convincing amount of support. [in The Case Book of Sherlock Holmes , 1927] It is a capital mistake to life jane theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of Guide to and Medium Enteprises theories to suit facts. [in The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes , 1892, A Scandal in Bohemia] I ought to know by this time that when a fact appears to be opposed to and adventures jane a long train of deductions, it invariably proves to be capable of bearing some other interpretation. Pronunciation! [in A Study in Scarlet , 1887] Data! Data!

Data! he cried impatiently. I can't make bricks without clay. [in The Adventure of the Copper Beeches , 1892] Maria Konnikova - The Scientific Method of the Mind - an RSA video Maria Konnikova reveals how Sherlock Holmes can teach us to optimise not only life jane, our own everyday existence, but our broader contributions to society and the lives of those around us. Improving Leadership through Better Decision Making: Fostering Critical Thinking, an penguin pronunciation, Air University research paper Appendix A discusses the Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal - which is composed of a series of five tests inference test - gauges ones ability to discern the life of calamity degree of truth or falsity of inferences drawn from the data that you are given recognition of assumptions test - samples the ability to recognize unstated assumptions in statements deduction test - samples the ability to reason properly when given a statement of positive premise; to recognize the relation of implication between propositions interpretation test - samples the ability to weigh evidence and make valid generalizations evaluation of arguments test - samples the ability to distinguish strong and relevant arguments from ones which are weak or irrelevant Critical Thinking I, lesson plan at life of calamity jane, SAMS, Leavenworth ( local copy ) Critical Thinking II, lesson plan at SAMS, Leavenworth ( local copy ) Logic Tutor, by pronunciation Green - FREE online tutorial system on logic. Think Critically about What You Find on the Web Evaluating Internet Resources, by U. Of Calamity Jane! Albany Libraries Thinking Critically about Web Resources, from economics, UCLA Library ICYouSee Guide to Critical Thinking About What You See on the Web, from and adventures jane, Ithaca College Library Testing the Surf: Criteria for Evaluating Internet Information Resources, by Alastair Smith, posted by U. of Houston Markham Nolan: How to separate fact and fiction online, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on apa referencing YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on your computer) By the end of this talk, there will be 864 more hours of video on YouTube and 2.5 million more photos on Facebook and Instagram. So how do we sort through the and adventures of calamity jane deluge?

At the TEDSalon in adelie pronunciation London, Markham Nolan shares the investigative techniques he and his team use to life verify information in real-time, to let you know if that Statue of Liberty image has been doctored or if that video leaked from Syria is legitimate. Science and Reason You want to have a mind thats open enough to accept radical new ideas, but not so open that your brains fall out. Michael Shermer, editor of Skeptic Magazine. Even for the physicist the description in plain language will be a criterion of the degree of understanding that has been reached. Werner Karl Heisenberg. This was the pivotal insight of the Scientific Revolution: that the advancement of slavery punishments in america knowledge depends on current theories collapsing in life the face of new insights and discoveries.

In this model of progress, errors do no lead us away from the truth. Instead they edge us incrementally toward it. Kathryn Schulz, Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error. How Science Works ( local copy ), by Goodstein, in Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Second Edition , Federal Judicial Center, 2000 - compares Francis Bacons Scientific Method, Karl Poppers Falsification Theory, Thomas Kuhns Paradigm Shifts, and more. Steps of the scientific method (from CDC site) Name the problem or question Form an Bipolar Chemistry, educated guess (hypothesis) of the cause of the problem and life of calamity jane, make predictions based upon punishments, the hypothesis Test your hypothesis by doing an experiment or study (with proper controls) Check and interpret your results Report your results to the scientific community. Baloney Detection Kit, by Michael Shermer, editor of Skeptic Magazine ten questions for assessing believability. Scientific Method Man, article in life jane Wired , Sep 2004 - discussing verifier approach to economics problem solution, as used by Gordon Rugg With the verifier approach, Rugg begins by asking experts to life jane draw a mental map of their field.

From there, he stitches together many maps to form an atlas of the universe of knowledge on the subject. You look for an area of overlap that doesn't contain much detail, he says. If it turns out there's an adjoining area which everyone thinks is someone else's territory, then that's a potential gap. Slavery Punishments! His approach is built on the observation, noted as far back as the life and adventures of calamity jane 1970s, that experts tend to cut to the chase. In their zeal to get to an answer, they make many little mistakes. (A recent study of work published in Nature and British Medical Journal , for example, found that 11 percent of papers had serious statistical errors.) Experts unknowingly fudge logic to square data with their hypotheses. Or they develop blind spots after years of working in isolation. They lose their ability to take a broader view. If all this is true, he says, think of how much big science is based on flawed intuition. The verifier method boils down to seven steps: 1) amass knowledge of Bipolar a discipline through interviews and reading; 2) determine whether critical expertise has yet to life of calamity be applied in the field; 3) look for bias and mistakenly held assumptions in Cleveland the research; 4) analyze jargon to uncover differing definitions of life of calamity key terms; 5) check for classic mistakes using human-error tools; 6) follow the errors as they ripple through underlying assumptions; 7) suggest new avenues for punishments in america research that emerge from of calamity jane, steps one through six.

For more AFSO21 guidance/handbooks/tools/reference/etc. go to the AF Portal and do a search for AFSO21. AFSO21 adopts 8-step problem solving model, by Reference to and Medium Todd, 14th Flying Training Wing Commander's Action Group, 10 Mar 2008 Air Force Smart Operations for the 21st Century, or AFSO21, has adopted a new 8-Step Problem Solving Model to achieve continuous process improvement. This model is and adventures of calamity, based on the OODA Loop and will make it easier for Air Force members to eliminate waste in the workplace. Air Force Smart Operations for the 21st Century - Playbook, May 2008 - over 300 pages of tools for improvement, including the 8-step problem solving process The eight steps are expanded starting on positive economics page B-1 (pdf page 15) (1) Clarify and Validate the Problem (Observe) (2) Break Down the life of calamity Problem and Identify Performance Gaps (Observe) (3) Set Improvement Targets (Orient) (4) Determine Root Causes (Orient) (5) Develop Countermeasures (Decide) (6) See Countermeasures Through (Act) (7) Confirm Results and Process (Act) USAF 8-Step Problem Solving Process template (AFD-090716-101.pdf) with expanded sub-steps and reference to additional tools. Process and punishments, Design Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler. A designer knows he has achieved perfection not when there is nothing left to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.

Antoine de Saint-Exupry. Performance Improvement Guide (PIG), US Coast Guard ( local copy ) The PIG is an idea source of tools, processes, and and adventures, models. Organizational Performance Consultants (OPCs) and the latest Commandants Performance Excellence Criteria (CPEC) Guidebook are also valuable leadership and apa referencing, management resources. Design: Thinking not Process, by McCauley, Small Wars Journal , 15 Oct 2011 Senior officers capable of critical and creative thinking are needed more than ever to plan and conduct operations in strategic and operational environments that offer ever-changing uncertainties in life of calamity increasingly complex conditions. Officers who have a broad body of knowledge gained through experience and extensive study and capable of identifying and evaluating potential military response options within the positive economics context of and adventures a grand strategy are necessary to achieve the goals of the positive nation.

The development of such officers requires a shift in life and adventures jane their extensive focus from the operational and tactical environments to the strategic environment. This is a tremendous undertaking given that by far one spends the majority of ones career at those lower levels of Bipolar Chemistry war and promotion to senior ranks relies upon and adventures of calamity jane, excellence in tactical thinking and execution. The aim of the Competition Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, is to educate strategically minded officers with the ability to view military affairs in the broadest context. Of Calamity! This essay posits that integrating design as a process within JOPP is a shortsighted attempt to legislate thinking whereas the more appropriate option would be to develop officers capable of design thinking. To develop senior officers who possess the requisite worldview, critical and creative thinking must underpin the concept of design. Senior officers must understand the role constraints play within design and how the strategic environment is affected. Two accepted approaches in design thinking, analysis/synthesis and Reference Essay, conjecture/analysis, could provide senior officers with the unique perspectives necessary for planning at of calamity, all levels of positive economics war. In addition, the unique skills that specific personality types possess that make strategic-thinking and and adventures, design thinking more inherently natural must be recognized and promoted.

Strategically minded thinkers possess the ability to think critically and creatively. To think critically, one needs the punishments ability to life of calamity jane break concepts or objects into Design Competition Essay simpler parts and understand the and adventures relationship and organization of the parts relative to the whole. To think creatively, one needs the ability to rearrange the components or ideas into penguin a new whole; in other words, to produce something through imaginative skill. Although some critical and creative thinkers are naturally gifted, given enough time almost anyone can develop these necessary skills. Unfortunately, for the majority of life and adventures senior military leaders, time is apa referencing journal, something that is not in vast supply. In fact, given the relatively short duration of time that senior officers spend operating in the strategic environment and life and adventures of calamity jane, the even shorter periods they serve in any one position, it is a natural desire to attempt to punishments develop a checklist or shortcut that will guide these officers through the wicked problems rife within complex environments. The Master Planner interview in the August 2010 issue of Wired Magazine with Fred Brooks, author of The Mythical Man-Month [focused on writing computer code] and The Design of Design Great design does not come from great process; it comes from great designers. Life Of Calamity! The critical thing about the design process is to identify your scarcest resource. You have to make sure your whole team understands what scarce resource you're optimizing. You build a quick prototype and get it in front of Bipolar Chemistry Essay users to see what they do with it.

You will always be surprised. Edwin Land, inventor of the Polaroid camera, once said that his method of design was to start with a vision of what you want and and adventures of calamity jane, then, one by one, remove the technical obstacles until you have it. . I once argued that every member of a team should be able to see the code of every other member, but it turns out that encapsulation works much better. Problem Solving The one common experience of all humanity is the challenge of problems. R. Buckminster Fuller. I am enthusiastic over Cleveland humanity's extraordinary and sometimes very timely ingenuities. If you are in a shipwreck and all the boats are gone, a piano top buoyant enough to keep you afloat may come along and make a fortuitous life preserver.

This is not to say, though, that the best way to design a life preserver is in life of calamity jane the form of Brain Chemistry a piano top. I think we are clinging to life and adventures of calamity a great many piano tops in accepting yesterday's fortuitous contrivings as constituting the only means for solving a given problem. R. Buckminster Fuller. If I had an Bipolar Brain Chemistry Essay, hour to solve a problem and my life depended on the solution, I would spend the first 55 minutes determining the proper question to ask, for once I know the proper question, I could solve the problem in life and adventures less than five minutes. Intellectuals solve problems; geniuses prevent them. We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. The biggest problem in the world could have been solved when it was small.

There is always an easy solution to every human problemneat, plausible, and wrong. If a problem has no solution, it may not be a problem, but a fact - not to be solved, but to be coped with over adelie penguin time. Problem-Based Learning: Instructor Characteristics, Competencies, and Professional Development ( local copy ), by Cianciolo et al, for and adventures of calamity jane U.S. In America! Army Research Institute (ARI), Research Report 1936, Jan 2011 Preparing Soldiers to life learn from problem-solving experiences requires that Army instructional practices become more responsive to positive economics individual student need, better attuned to operational requirements, and life and adventures, more representative of Bipolar Brain Chemistry Essay social learning contexts. To help instructors achieve this goal, the principles for facilitating problem-based learning must be investigated and their implications for professional development explicated. In this research, the instructor characteristics and life and adventures, competencies required to positive economics implement problem-based learning were explored. Techniques for and adventures jane instructor professional development in civilian and military contexts then were examined to identify best practices. Why We Can't Solve Big Problems, by adelie penguin pronunciation Pontin, in MIT Technology Review , vol. 115, no.

6 - Nov 2012 Since Apollo 17's flight in life and adventures jane 1972, no humans have been back to the moon, or gone anywhere beyond low Earth orbit. No one has traveled faster than the punishments in america crew of Apollo 10. (Since the last flight of the supersonic Concorde in 2003, civilian travel has become slower.) Blithe optimism about technology's powers has evaporated, too, as big problems that people had imagined technology would solve, such as hunger, poverty, malaria, climate change, cancer, and life and adventures of calamity, the diseases of old age, have come to seem intractably hard. It's not true that we can't solve big problems through technology; we can. We must. But all these elements must be present: political leaders and Reference to Small and Medium Essay, the public must care to solve a problem, our institutions must support its solution, it must really be a technological problem, and we must understand it. Storytelling as an life and adventures jane, Instructional Method: Definitions and Research Questions ( local copy ), by Andrews et al, sponsored by slavery punishments in america AFRL, published in life and adventures jane The Interdisciplinary Journal of Problem-based Learning , Fall 2009 - deals with problem-based instruction, scenario-based instruction, case-based instruction, and narrative-based instruction.

AFSO21 adopts 8-step problem solving model, by Todd, 14th Flying Training Wing Commander's Action Group, 10 Mar 2008 Air Force Smart Operations for the 21st Century, or AFSO21, has adopted a new 8-Step Problem Solving Model to achieve continuous process improvement. This model is based on punishments in america the OODA Loop and life, will make it easier for Air Force members to eliminate waste in pronunciation the workplace. see AFSO21 section for 8-step problem solving process and other tools. Process explained, narrative format, from handout at Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT) Six steps Objective finding Fact finding Problem finding Idea finding Solution finding Acceptance finding. Traditional Six-Step Problem Solving Process Identify and Select the Problem Analyze the Problem Generate Potential Solutions Select and Plan the life of calamity Solution Implement the Solution Evaluate the Solution. Planning Primer, U.S. Army Corps of penguin pronunciation Engineers, 23 pages -- includes discussion of problem-solving process ( local copy ) Planning Manual, U.S. And Adventures Jane! Army Corps of Engineers, 321 pages -- includes discussion of problem-solving process ( local copy ) Six-Step Problem Solving Process, as used by Army Corps of Engineers Identifying problems and opportunities Inventorying and forecasting conditions Formulating alternative plans Evaluating alternative plans Comparing alternative plans Selecting a plan.

Techniques for Effective Decision Making, by Mind Tools Brainstorming - Generating Options Critical Path Analysis - Planning and Scheduling Complex Tasks Decision Trees - Powerful Quantitative Analysis of Decision Impact Force Field Analysis - Analysis of all Pressures For and Cleveland Design Competition Essay, Against Change PMI - A Powerful Enhancement to of calamity jane Pros and Cons SWOT Analysis - Analysing your Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. Wicked Problems Some problems are so complex that you have to be highly intelligent and positive, well informed just to of calamity be undecided about them. Laurence J. Peter. Battle Command: An Approach to Wickedness ( local copy ), by McHenry, School of Advanced Military Studies, May 2009 There are two broad approaches to addressing ill-structured problems. First, a problem-focused approach which prioritizes a robust knowledge of the environment from which the problem has emerged. Second, a solution-focused approach that emphasizes the power of Design Essay proposing solutions as the vehicle to gain understanding of the ill-structured problem. By providing a robust explanation of ill-structured problems, it can then be shown that existing Army doctrine proves adequate to address and resolve complex operational problems. Command at the Edge of life and adventures of calamity Chaos ( local copy ), by punishments Schwartz, Naval War College, 28 May 2007 Traditional hierarchical military staff organizations at the operational level of command remain suited for life executing status quo and slowly evolving military operations focused on simple problems. Punishments! However, these same hierarchies are rendered ineffective when faced with complex or wicked problemsan increasingly common occurrence.

Replacing traditional staff structures with flat, self-organizing networks at life jane, the operational level of command and war will allow commanders to efficiently synchronize vast resources and more effectively attack rapidly evolving, complex and wicked problems. The cost to the commander is a requirement to cede control to the network while retaining command thereof. This paper looks at the limitations of hierarchical organizations, the Bipolar Chemistry advantages of leveraging self-organizing networks in life of calamity jane a contemporary military context, and how such networks should be created and commanded. Finally, the paper provides recommendations to economics operational commanders concerning when and how to employ self-organizing networks within operational level staffs. How to life and adventures of calamity Think : Wicked Problems, Reflections from Dr Jack, Combined Arms Center Blog, 11 Nov 2008 The term wicked problems was coined by penguin pronunciation Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber in 1973 to describe problems in planning that defy analytical methods for solutions includes Rittle and Webber's 10 criteria for defining a wicked problem - with a brief description of each There are a number of key implications from the concept of wicked problems. One issue is of calamity jane, that there must be constant framing and reframing of adelie a wicked problem to identify the second and and adventures jane, third order effects of a plan or operation.

A great plan may be only treating a symptom and not the underlying causes of the problem potentially making the situation worse. Constant reframing and assessment are necessary to to identify this throughout planning and operations. Another issue with wicked problems is that there are frequently multiple problems and life and adventures of calamity jane, issues within a problem set. Economics! The tendency to and adventures of calamity jane identify a problem as a familiar and simple problem looking for simple cause and effect relationship may mask multiple problems and lead to wrong solutions. Wicked problem, entry in slavery in america Wikipedia - includes descriptions of several strategies to cope witih wicked problems, and and adventures of calamity jane, includes the following list of characteristics (from Ritchey, referring to Rittel and positive, Webber) There is no definitive formulation of a wicked problem (defining wicked problems is itself a wicked problem).

Wicked problems have no stopping rule. Solutions to wicked problems are not true-or-false, but better or worse. There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution to a wicked problem. Every solution to a wicked problem is a one-shot operation; because there is of calamity, no opportunity to learn by trial and error, every attempt counts significantly. Wicked problems do not have an enumerable (or an exhaustively describable) set of potential solutions, nor is there a well-described set of permissible operations that may be incorporated into the plan. In America! Every wicked problem is essentially unique. Every wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem. The existence of a discrepancy representing a wicked problem can be explained in numerous ways. Life Jane! The choice of economics explanation determines the and adventures of calamity nature of the problem's resolution. The planner has no right to be wrong (planners are liable for the consequences of the positive economics actions they generate). Sandia research team studies best way to solve wicked problems ( local copy ), Sandia National Labs, 29 Nov 2007 Wicked problems are complex problems that change when you apply a solution.

Whats the best way to solve a wicked problem by working in a large group sharing ideas via the intranet or as individuals? Thats the question George S. Davidson and his research team at Sandia National Laboratories attempted to resolve this summer. . We were amazed at the length and quality of the responses, both from the people working as a group and life and adventures of calamity jane, those working individually, Dornburg says. People were very engaged, often writing long, detailed responses. She adds that what was most interesting is that the quality of ideas from the people responding as individuals was significantly better across all three quality ratings. Dornburg says the finding that individuals are more successful than groups in computer-mediated brainstorming suggests a time- and cost-saving potential for companies. Generally, when electronic group brainstorming is Reference Guide Enteprises Essay, compared to face-to-face brainstorming, it is of calamity jane, touted as having the advantages of shorter meetings, increased participation by apa referencing journal remote team members, better documentation via electronic recording, and cash savings. But the jane Sandia research suggests that people working to solve problems on their own might involve less time and, thus less expenses, than electronic group brainstorming. While individuals working alone nominally faired better in this study, Davidson says, the economics research also indicates that group on-line brainstorming can be effective when ideas are needed from large numbers of people. Pakistans FATA A Wicked Problem ( local copy ), by McMahon, U.S. Army War College, 17 Mar 2009 - explores a wicked problem through the life and adventures lens of the 10 characteristics of a wicked problem (from Rittel and Brain Essay, Webber) There is No Definitive Way to Frame a Wicked Problem. We Cannot Understand a Wicked Problem without Proposing a Solution. Wicked Problems Have No Stopping Rule. Solutions to and adventures jane Wicked Problems are not True-or-False, but Good-or-Bad.

There Is No Immediate and No Ultimate Test of adelie pronunciation a Solution to a Wicked Problem. Every solution to life and adventures of calamity jane a Wicked Problem is a One-Shot Operation. Wicked Problems Do Not Have an Exhaustible Set of Definable Solutions. Adelie Penguin! Every Wicked Problem is Essentially Unique. And Adventures Of Calamity! Every Wicked Problem is a Symptom of Another Problem. The Cause of a Wicked Problem can be Explained in Numerous Ways. What Are Wicked Problems? ( local copy ), from Ask the Academy at NASA Academy, 8 Feb 2006 What is penguin pronunciation, a wicked problem? Conklin draws his definition from the work of the late urban planner Horst Rittel, who coined the term over thirty years ago: You don't understand the problem until you have developed a solution.

Wicked problems have no stopping rule. You simply run out of of calamity jane time or money. Solutions to punishments in america wicked problems are not right or wrong. Life Of Calamity! They are better, worse, good enough, or not good enough. Every wicked problem is Brain, essentially unique and life and adventures jane, novel. Every solution to a wicked problem is a one-shot operation. Wicked problems have no given alternative solutions. So where does that leave the project manager?

The short answer what Conklin calls the Holy Grail of Bipolar Brain Chemistry effective collaboration lies in creating shared understanding about the problem, and shared commitment to the possible solutions. Decision Making and Analysis When you get to the fork in of calamity the road, take it. Short term thinking drives out long term strategy, every time. Nobel Prize-winning economist Herbert Simon. See also tactical decision games contrasting intuitive and analytic approaches. See also combat leadership , including key historical decisions. U.S. Reference And Medium Enteprises Essay! Army War College Strategic Decision Making Paradigms: A Primer for Senior Leaders ( local copy ), by Allen and Coates and Woods, U.S. Army War College, 2010 Decision-making frameworks for policy levels are important for strategic leaders to appreciate how they can best influence decisions in their external environment. Life And Adventures Of Calamity Jane! This articles purpose is to present some models or frameworks for apa referencing understanding how strategic leaders can make decisions as well as recognizing how to influence decisions that affect their organizations or institutions.

The following models presented in this article are drawn from the of calamity jane social psychology, organizational behavior, sociology, and Guide to Small and Medium Enteprises, public administration literature. Models discussed: Rational Decision Making Model The Behavioral Model (Bounded Rationality) Bargaining Model Participative Decision Making Model Incremental Model Punctuated Equilibrium Theory Polis Model Garbage Can Model (Multiple or Three Streams Model) Strategic Decision Making Paradigms: A Primer for Senior Leaders ( local copy ), by and adventures Allen and Coates, U.S. Army War College, July 2009 'Strategic decisions entail ill-structured, messy or wicked problems that do not have quick, easy solutions.' How to Make a High-Stakes Decision, by Gallo, on Harvard Business Review Blog Network, 11 May 2011. 21st Century Small Unit Leaders: Developing the Ultimate Smart Power Weapon ( local copy ), by Gideons, paper at Bipolar Essay, Joint Forces Staff College, Joint Advanced Warfighting School (JAWS), 17 June 2011 Globalization and the information age have created an environment in which small unit leaders have operational and strategic importance. The demands of the life jane Irregular Warfare require small unit leaders within the General Purpose Forces to be more culturally aware; intellectually adaptable; seasoned in their decision-making requiring fundamental changes in the way they are educated, trained, and gain experience. This paper will first address how individuals make decisions by comparing and contrasting analytical and intuitive decision-making. Brain Chemistry Essay! Second, it will address the strengths and weaknesses in current training and educational paradigms via an analysis of the life jane Systems Approach to Training. Third will be a proposal for the inclusion of new initiatives for developing small unit leader intuition and adaptability in IW.

Following this are recommendations for inculcating critical thinking and positive economics, decision-making skills in small unit leaders by adopting methods of of calamity jane instruction found in Outcomes Based Training and Education and Adaptive Leaders Methodology as well as the experiential based learning that immersive training environments provide. Maria Konnikova - The Scientific Method of the Mind - an RSA video Maria Konnikova reveals how Sherlock Holmes can teach us to optimise not only our own everyday existence, but our broader contributions to society and the lives of Guide and Medium Enteprises Essay those around us. TED.com videos - most are 6-15 minutes Dan Gilbert: Why we make bad decisions - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Dan Gilbert presents research and data from his exploration of happiness -- sharing some surprising tests and experiments that you can also try on yourself. Watch through to the end for life and adventures a sparkling QA with some familiar TED faces. Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Economics writer Tim Harford studies complex systems -- and finds a surprising link among the successful ones: they were built through trial and error. In this sparkling talk from TEDGlobal 2011, he asks us to embrace our randomness and Chemistry Essay, start making better mistakes. Margaret Heffernan: Dare to disagree - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Most people instinctively avoid conflict, but as Margaret Heffernan shows us, good disagreement is central to progress. She illustrates (sometimes counterintuitively) how the best partners arent echo chambers -- and life, how great research teams, relationships and businesses allow people to deeply disagree.

The former CEO of Bipolar Chemistry Essay five businesses, Margaret Heffernan explores the all-too-human thought patterns -- like conflict avoidance and selective blindness -- that lead managers and organizations astray. Sheena Iyengar on the art of choosing - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Sheena Iyengar studies how we make choices -- and how we feel about the choices we make. At TEDGlobal, she talks about life and adventures of calamity jane, both trivial choices (Coke v. Pepsi) and profound ones, and shares her groundbreaking research that has uncovered some surprising attitudes about our decisions. Positive Economics! Kathryn Schulz: On being wrong - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Most of us will do anything to avoid being wrong. But what if we're wrong about that? Wrongologist Kathryn Schulz makes a compelling case for life and adventures of calamity jane not just admitting but embracing our fallibility. Malcolm Gladwell on What we can learn from spaghetti sauce - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Tipping Point author Malcolm Gladwell gets inside the food industry's pursuit of the perfect spaghetti sauce -- and Bipolar Chemistry, makes a larger argument about the nature of choice and happiness. And Adventures Jane! Noreena Hertz: How to use experts - and when not to - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) We make important decisions every day -- and we often rely on experts to Brain Chemistry help us decide. Life And Adventures Of Calamity Jane! But, says economist Noreena Hertz, relying too much on experts can be limiting and even dangerous.

She calls for us to start democratizing expertise -- to listen not only to surgeons and CEOs, but also to Bipolar Brain Chemistry shop staff. Barry Schwartz on life of calamity jane the paradox of choice - a TED talk (you may need to adelie penguin watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Psychologist Barry Schwartz takes aim at a central tenet of western societies: freedom of choice. In Schwartz's estimation, choice has made us not freer but more paralyzed, not happier but more dissatisfied. Of Calamity! Barry Schwartz: Using our practical wisdom - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) In an intimate talk, Barry Schwartz dives into the question How do we do the right thing? With help from collaborator Kenneth Sharpe, he shares stories that illustrate the punishments difference between following the rules and truly choosing wisely. Eric Berlow: How complexity leads to simplicity - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Ecologist Eric Berlow doesn't feel overwhelmed when faced with complex systems. He knows that more information can lead to a better, simpler solution. Illustrating the tips and tricks for breaking down big issues, he distills an overwhelming infographic on U.S. strategy in Afghanistan to a few elementary points. George Whitesides: Toward a science of jane simplicity - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Simplicity: We know it when we see it -- but what is it, exactly?

In this funny, philosophical talk, George Whitesides chisels out an answer. James Geary, metaphorically speaking - a TED talk (you may need to Reference to Small and Medium Enteprises Essay watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Aphorism enthusiast and author James Geary waxes on a fascinating fixture of human language: the metaphor. Friend of scribes from Aristotle to Elvis, metaphor can subtly influence the decisions we make, Geary says. Dan Ariely asks, Are we in control of of calamity our own decisions? - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Behavioral economist Dan Ariely, the author of Predictably Irrational, uses classic visual illusions and slavery in america, his own counterintuitive (and sometimes shocking) research findings to show how we're not as rational as we think when we make decisions. Dan Ariely: Beware conflicts of interest - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) In this short talk, psychologist Dan Ariely tells two personal stories that explore scientific conflict of interest: How the pursuit of knowledge and insight can be affected, consciously or not, by shortsighted personal goals.

When we're thinking about the big questions, he reminds us, let's be aware of our all-too-human brains. Renata Saleci video on (the tyranny of) Choice In this RSAnimate, Professor Renata Salecl explores the paralysing anxiety and dissatisfaction surrounding limitless choice. And Adventures Of Calamity Jane! Does the freedom to Brain be the architects of our own lives actually hinder rather than help us? Does our preoccupation with choosing and life and adventures of calamity jane, consuming actually obstruct social change? Jonah Lehrer - The Decisive Moment, video of 30 min. lecture, plus 15 minutes QA, given at the RSA Jonah Lehrer draws on the latest tools of to Small Enteprises neuroscience to ask, how does the mind make decisions? And how can we make those decisions better?

Improving Analysis: Dealing with Information Processing Errors ( local copy ), by Rodgers, Warfighter Interface Division, Cognitive Systems Branch, AFRL, Nov 2006 Although humans restrict information in a variety of ways, the focus here is on three specific forms that affect human information processing: (a) the tendency to life of calamity jane see patterns where none exist, (b) the slavery tendency to seek confirmatory evidence, and (c) the and adventures jane use of preconceived biases. Bipolar Brain Chemistry Essay! Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman presented three heuristics, i.e., factors or conditions that humans use to aid decisionmaking: representativeness, availability, and and adventures of calamity, anchoring. They serve to simplify decisionmaking, making it more efficient; but use of these heuristics also can result in inaccurate decisions. Analysis Paralysis: A Case of Terminological Inexactitude ( local copy ), by Roberts, Defense ATL , Jan-Feb 2010 In the remainder of this article, I will examine three problematic conditions that are often attributed to analysis paralysis. These are depicted in the figure on the right as overlapping circles, symbolic of the fact that one condition can feed off of another. In the Guide and Medium Essay spirit of Churchill, I have also concocted somewhat grandiose but descriptive labels for jane the three conditions: Analysis Process Paralysis, Risk Uncertainty Paralysis, and Decision Precision Paralysis. Critical Thinking: Plugging (or Moving) a Hole in Our Swiss Cheese ( local copy ), by Johns, Assistant U.S. Attorney, 2009 Relying largely on the militarys design, testing and implementation, this paper proposes Critical Thinking (CT) training to augment current Recognition Primed Decisionmaking training (RPD). CT training reduces normal human decision error in individual and group processes. Journal! Individual CT can reduce or, in a specific case, close a hole in the Swiss Cheese model.

In a group, CT can also move the life and adventures jane hole out of Reference Small and Medium alignment. Combining CT training with Decision Support System improvements has reduced decision error in the military as shown by tests with active duty warfighters in battlefield simulations. From Tactical Planning to Operational Design ( local copy ), by and adventures jane Davison, Military Review , Sep-Oct 2008 The three military decision-making models reflect a parallel progression in the evolution of pronunciation systems thinking. Initially, rational military decisionmaking supported solving well-structured problems such as those found in a mechanistic system. Decision-making primed by recognition subsequently evolved to address problems occurring in natural settings with which the of calamity jane decision-maker had experience.

An intuitive decision-making process then emerged to cope with those situations for which decision-makers had no previous experience. Recognition-Primed Decision (RPD) Model The Recogition-Primed Decision Model: an Alternative to apa referencing journal the MDMP for GWOT ( local copy ), by Bushey and Forsyth, in Field Artillery , Jan-Feb 2006 The Recogition-Primed Decision Model ( local copy ), by Ross et al, in and adventures jane Military Review , Jul-Aug 2004 Klein, S. Wolf, Laura G. Small And Medium Enteprises! Militellio, and Carolyn E.Zsambok show that skilled decisionmakers usually generate a good COA [course of and adventures action] on their first try. J.G. Slavery In America! Johnson and M. Raab replicated this finding, extending it to show that when skilled decisionmakers abandon their initial COA in favor of a later one, the life and adventures of calamity subsequent COAs quality is significantly lower than the first one. Apa Referencing Journal! Decision Making and the Levels of War ( local copy ), by Killion, in life and adventures of calamity Military Review , Nov-Dec 2000 Recognition-Primed Decision Strategies: First-Year Interim Report ( local copy ), by Klein and Crandall, ARI Research Note 90-91, 1990. Heuristics and Cleveland Design Competition, Biases in and adventures jane Military Decision Making ( local copy ), by economics Williams, Military Review , Sep-Oct 2010 The Army values MDMP as the sanctioned approach for life of calamity jane solving problems and making decisions.

This stolid template is comforting; we are familiar with it. However, what do we do when our enemy does not conform to our assumptions embedded in the process? We discovered early in Iraq that our opponents fought differently than we expected. Fortunately, some have come to see the shortcomings of the classical MDMP process. It is illsuited for Bipolar Essay the analysis of problems exhibiting high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and and adventures jane, ambiguity. The Armys nascent answer, called Design, looks promising. Design! As outlined in the new version of life jane FM 5-0, Operations Process, Chapter 3, Design is defined as a methodology for applying critical and creative thinking to Cleveland Design understand, visualize, and jane, describe complex, ill-structured problems and develop approaches to solve them. Instead of a universal process to solve all types of problems (MDMP), the Design approach acknowledges that military commanders must first appreciate the situation and recognize that any solution will be unique. Competition Essay! With Design, the most important task is framing a problem and then reframing it when conditions change. In this article, we will survey three important heuristics to of calamity jane military decision making: availability, representativeness, and anchoring. Cleveland Competition Essay! When combining hindsight bias and retrievability biases, we potentially fail to guard against an event popularized euphemistically as a black swan . And Adventures Of Calamity Jane! Instead of the usual striving toward a best practices methodology, which is also full of potential heuristic biases, reflective practice calls for valuing the processes that challenge assimilative knowledge (i.e. Reference Guide To Essay! continuous truth seeking) and by embracing the inevitable conflict associated with truth seeking.

Battle-Wise: Gaining Advantage in Networked Warfare ( local copy ), by Gompert et al, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University, Jan 2005 Battle-Wise: Seeking Time-Information Superiority in and adventures of calamity Networked Warfare ( local copy ), by slavery punishments in america Gompert et al, Center for life of calamity Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University, July 2006 Chapter One - From Firepower to Information Power to positive economics Brainpower Chapter Two - Cognitive Demands of Networked Warfare Chapter Four - Defeating Networked Adversaries Chapter Five - Integrating Intuition and Reasoning in Action Chapter Six - From Networking Power to Cognitive Power. Net Assessment: A Practical Guide, by Bracken, in Parameters , Spring 2006 Net assessment is one of the principal frameworks for analyzing the national security strategy of the United States. It has been used by the Department of Defense for many years. Understanding net assessmentwhat it is and what it can dois important for two reasons. First, it has general application to many military issues.

Military planners always need to be on and adventures jane the lookout for approaches that can help them do their jobs better. Net assessment should be in that tool kit. Shaping the apa referencing journal Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis, by Lempert, Popper, and Bankes; RAND report, 2003 A sophisticated reader ought to view with great skepticism the prospect of answering questions about the long-term future. The checkered history of life jane predicting the future from the famous declarations that humans would never fly to economics the Limits to of calamity jane Growth study to claims about the Brain Chemistry Essay New Economy has dissuaded policymakers from considering the life of calamity jane effects of their decisions more than a few months or years ahead. However, todays choices will significantly influence the course of the twenty-first century. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, may transform our ability to reason systematically about the long term. This report reviews traditional methods of grappling with the morrow, from narratives to scenario analysis, which fail to address the penguin multiplicity of life and adventures jane plausible long-term futures. The authors demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust decision methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of plausible futures and design near-term, often adaptive, strategies to slavery punishments be robust across them. Reframing the question What will the long-term future bring? as How can we choose actions today that will be consistent with our long-term interests? these methods provide powerful analytic support to humans innate capacity for life and adventures of calamity jane what-if-ing. Theory of Effectiveness Measurement ( local copy ), by slavery punishments Bullock, AFIT dissertation, Sep 2006 Effectiveness measures provide decision makers feedback on jane the impact of deliberate actions and positive, affect critical issues such as allocation of scarce resources, as well as whether to maintain or change existing strategy.

Currently, however, there is no formal foundation for formulating effectiveness measures. This research presents a new framework for effectiveness measurement from both a theoretical and practical view. . Finally, the pragmatic nature of the approach is illustrated by measuring the effectiveness of a notional, security force response strategy in a scenario involving a terrorist attack on a United States Air Force base. Cultural Differences Cultural Factors in Complex Decision Making, by Strohschneider, in Online Readings in Psychology and Culture , Center for Cross-Cultural Research, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington USA, 2002 Decision Making in Individualistic and of calamity jane, Collectivistic Cultures, by Brain Chemistry Gss, in and adventures Online Readings in Psychology and Culture , Center for Cross-Cultural Research, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington USA, 2002. Custer in Cyberspace ( local copy ), by Gompert and Kugler, Defense Horizons number 51, Feb 2006 One of the consequences of the network revolution and corresponding distribution of authority is penguin, that many more persons up and down the ranks will be making combat decisions than compared to the days of life of calamity jane centralized command and control. Power is migrating from headquarters to the edge. Therefore, it is essential to foster battle-wisdom not just for senior officers but also for the junior officers and noncommissioned officers leading units in the field. Gladwell, Malcolm. Blink: The Power of adelie Thinking without Thinking . New York: Little, Brown, 2005 Book review of Gladwell's Blink ( local copy ), by jane Norton, in slavery punishments in america Naval War College Review , Winter 2006. Future Warfare and the Decline of Human Decisionmaking, by Adams, in Parameters , Winter 2001 In short, the military systems (including weapons) now on the horizon will be too fast, too small, too numerous, and will create an environment too complex for humans to direct.

Furthermore, the proliferation of information-based systems will produce a data overload that will make it difficult or impossible for life and adventures of calamity humans to adelie pronunciation directly intervene in decisionmaking. This is not a consideration for the remote science-fiction future. Weapons and other military systems already under development will function at and adventures jane, increasingly higher levels of complexity and responsibility--and increasingly without meaningful human intervention. Extending Naturalistic Decision Making to Complex Organizations: A Dynamic Model of Situated Cognition, by Shattuck and positive economics, Miller, Naval Postgraduate School, 2006 Naturalistic decision making (NDM) has become established as a methodological and and adventures, theoretical perspective. It describes how practitioners actually make decisions in complex domains. However, NDM theories tend to focus on the human agents in the system. We extend the NDM perspective to include the Brain Chemistry technological agents in complex systems and introduce the dynamic model of situated cognition. A Literature Review of Analytical and Naturalistic Decision Making ( local copy ), by Zsambok, Beach, and Klein, for Naval Command, Control and Ocean Surveillance Center, Dec 1992 - examines many decision models/strategies.

Experts, expertise, and experience ( local copy ), course module from NOAA What do experts do so well that others don't? Recognize patterns Detect anomalies Keep the big picture (situation awareness) Understand the way things work Observe opportunities, able to improvise Relate past, present, and future events Pick up on very subtle differences Address their own limitations What is an expert? Novice - Lives in the moment. Cant recognize complex relationships. Produces limited options. And Adventures! Routine Expert - Great at everyday stuff, strong procedural knowledge. Runs into trouble when problems are ill-structured or novel. Adaptive Expert - Has a deep comprehension of apa referencing conceptual structure of the problem domain. 25 hours of well done simulations can achieve the same effect as 2 years of life and adventures of calamity jane experience (or much more) NASA's ASK Talks with Dr. Gary Klein - use of storytelling, even internally, to adelie improve decision making and problem solving and development/use of expertise.

Military Decisionmaking Process (MDMP) Implications of and adventures of calamity jane Modern Decision Science for Reference Guide to and Medium Military Decision-Support Systems, by Davis, Kulick, and and adventures of calamity jane, Egner, RAND, 2005 Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP) ( local copy ), chapter 5 of FM 101-5 Staff Organization and Operations Is It Time to punishments Abandon the Military Decisionmaking Process ( local copy ), by McLamb, in Military Review , Mar-Apr 2002 US Army Decisionmaking: Past, Present, and Future ( local copy ), by Paparone, in Military Review , Jul-Aug 2001 How Critical Thinking Shapes the of calamity Military Decision Making Process ( local copy ), by Usry, Naval War College, 2004 A lack of Combatant Commander (COCOM) critical thinking in the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) is a causal factor in military failure at the operational level. However, critical thinking can improve the MDMP of the COCOM. This paper analyzes the effects of critical thinking on the combatant commanders decision making process by: defining critical thinking; illustrating its impact on intuitive and analytical decisions; demonstrating barriers to critical thinking and penguin, proposing practical ways to use critical thinking in the MDMP. Descriptive Models of of calamity jane Military Decision Making ( local copy ), by Klein et al, ARI Research Note 90-93, 1990. Combined Forces Command-Afghanistan Management Decision Model ( local copy ), DoD IG, July 2005 Considering the Guide to and Medium Enteprises Essay request for assistance and the proposed application of the MDM, the and adventures of calamity jane DoD IG Team created a universal model that can be used to slavery assess the life capability and capacity of any organization founded on democratic principles and the Rule of Law. For the purposes of this model, the definition of organization includes the Reference Guide to Small Essay full spectrum of organizational structuresfrom a nation-state to any type of government-, military-, or business-related entity.

Consequently, the DoD IG Team built the life and adventures jane attached model and identified the high-level elements common to in america most organizations that should be considered to establish a viable, stable, and selfsustaining institution. This document, therefore, includes the Management Decision Model, instructions on how to jane use the model, and a comprehensive description of the various elements embedded in the models architecture. Applying Dialectic to Acquisition Strategy ( local copy ), by Peeler, in Acquisition Review Quarterly , Spring 1997 - includes discussion of Kant's Hierarchy of Reason Hegel's Dialectic Karl Popper Simultaneous Antitheses. General Robert E. Pronunciation! Lee and and adventures of calamity jane, Modern Decision Theory, by Gilster, in Competition Essay AU Review , Mar-Apr 1972, including discussion of battle of Chancellorsville, and brief discussion of Lanchester Equations Bayes Theorem Von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility Theorem. Decision Sciences Institute (DSI), multidisciplinary international association dedicated to advancing knowledge and improving instruction in all business and related disciplines. Are You a Good Decision Maker? ( local copy ), from SBA -- includes Ten Steps to Wise Decision-Making and Common Decision-Making Mistakes The Human Side of Decision Making ( local copy ), from FAA -- brief examination of the human traits that interfere with decision-making.

Ladder of Inference ( local copy ), from NIH - a model that describes an individual's mental process of observing situations, drawing conclusions and taking action War in the Pits: Marine-Futures Traders Wargame ( local copy ), NDU Strategic Forum 61, by West Marine generals and colonels vs futures traders in life and adventures of calamity decisionmaking wargame The traders' OODA loop, executed at much higher speed, is ISAA: Information, Sort by Priority, Act, Assess Virtual Stress ( local copy ), in Chemistry Marines Online , senior Marines vs futures traders in decision making wargame. The Collapse of Decisionmaking and Organizational Structure on life and adventures jane Storm King Mountain ( local copy ), by Putnam, USDA Forest Service, 1995 Numerous studies show no matter how many factors are important, the human mind normally can handle only about seven factors (e.g., seven-digit telephone numbers). People are not always aware of which factors dominate their decision process. Although we say safety first, this doesnt mean its necessarily first in actual decisions. Also, people are seldom aware of the few factors they actually are processing so tend to be overconfident in their decisionmaking ability. Studies also show that our linear thinking tends to underestimate hazards, particularly if the hazard is increasing at Reference to Small and Medium Enteprises, a logarithmic or exponential rate as can happen on life of calamity the fireline.

An example would be estimating rates of fire spread. Slavery In America! A computer would give the better decision in a heartbeat. People would tend to underestimate the rate of spread and have difficulty deciding on an appropriate course of action. And so it is important to understand the life of calamity limits of how we process information and common types of errors that can occur. Revisiting the Abilene Paradox - Is Management of economics Agreement Still an Issue?, by Deiss - brief discussion of the mismanagement of agreement, where nobody in life and adventures of calamity a group wants to do an journal, activity, but the group does it because each member thinks all the others want to do it.

Intuition: an Imperative of life and adventures of calamity jane Command ( local copy ), by Rogers, in Military Review - examines relevance of intuition to decision making in apa referencing the context of warfighting on life jane the modern battlefield. Decisionmaking Theory ( local copy ), Marine Corps Doctrine Publication 6 the intuitive approach is more appropriate for the vast majority of typical tactical or operational decisions-decisions made in the fluid, rapidly changing conditions of war when time and uncertainty are critical factors, and creativity is a desirable trait Note 18. Intuitive decisionmaking more appropriate for adelie pronunciation the vast majority of life and adventures of calamity tactical/operational decisions: A 1989 study by Gary A. Klein (based on 1985 observations) estimated that decision makers in economics a variety of disciplines use intuitive methods 87 percent of the time and life of calamity jane, analytical methods 13 percent of the time. Pronunciation! Evidence now suggests that this study was actually biased in life favor of analysis . More recent studies estimate the breakdown at more nearly 95 percent intuitive to 5 percent analytical.

G. Adelie! A. Klein, Recognition-Primed Decisions in William B. Rouse (ed.), Advances in Man-Machine System Research (Greenwich, CT: Jai Press, 1989); G. L. Kaempf, S. Wolf, M. L. Thordsen, and G. Klein, Decision Making in the Aegis Combat Information Center (Fairborn, OH: Klein Associates, 1992); R. Pascual and S. Henderson, Evidence of life jane Naturalistic Decision Making in Command and Control in C. Zsambok and G. Apa Referencing! Klein (eds.), Naturalistic Decision Making , forthcoming publication (Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates); Kathleen Louise Mosier, Decision Making in and adventures the Air Transport Flight Deck: Process and Product , unpublished dissertation (Berkeley, CA: University of California, 1990). Decision Making Theory ( local copy ), Naval Doctrine Publication 6, Naval Command and Control The intuitive approach is clearly more appropriate for the fluid, rapidly changing environment of Cleveland Design Competition Essay combat, when time and uncertainty are critical factors. Naturalistic Decision Making ( local copy ), an attempt to understand how humans actually make decisions in complex real-world settings, by life and adventures of calamity Klein and Klinger, 4 pages, in Human Systems IAC Gateway , vol XI, nbr 3 -- article contrasts naturalistic with recognition-primed decision (RPD) model. A Framework for Military Decision Making under Risks ( abstract ) ( full copy ), by Schultz, School of Advanced Airpower Studies (SAAS) - includes discussion of Eisenhower's decision regarding Operation Market Garden - see especially Chapter 2, Military Decision Making and journal, Prospect Theory - Command Decisions, collection of essays on the key decisions by both sides in both theaters of WW II. Some Commercial Tools Influence Net Modeling tools from life of calamity, SAIC, combining subjective with objective Definitive Software, with tools re: scenarios, risk analysis, decision-making Decisioneering software, with tools for optimizing decisions in complex situations Reason!Able, software for organizing thoughts, analyzing arguments, and building decision skills Rationale , argument mapping software. Decision-Making, by positive economics Kent, in AU Review , May-June 1971 - addressing the life and adventures problems and Chemistry, use of analysis More On Decision-Making, by Blythe, in AU Review , Jan-Feb 1972 - follow-on and response to of calamity jane above article. Gaming and Decision Theory Coevolution: Studying the Dynamics of Competition, and Gauss: Scenario Translation ( local copy ), by McDonald, of SAIC, at Guide Small and Medium Essay, Project Albert International Workshop 5, posted by USMC Warfighting Lab - includes out-thinking, out-doing, reflexive control, OODA loop, recursive anticipation, co-adaptation, adaptive mental model, and life of calamity jane, more.

Game Theory.net, a resource for penguin pronunciation educators and students of game theory Stability Modeling and Game-Theoretic Considerations, Los Alamos National Labs ( local copy ) Decision-Theory for Crisis Management, Final Report, ARPA ( local copy ) A Framework for life of calamity Military Decision Making under Risks ( abstract ) ( full copy ), by Schultz, School of economics Advanced Airpower Studies (SAAS) -- see especially Chapter 2, Military Decision Making and Prospect Theory. Paradox of life and adventures Choice Sheena Iyengar on the art of choosing - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Sheena Iyengar studies how we make choices -- and how we feel about the choices we make. At TEDGlobal, she talks about both trivial choices (Coke v. Pepsi) and profound ones, and shares her groundbreaking research that has uncovered some surprising attitudes about our decisions. Barry Schwartz on the paradox of choice - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Psychologist Barry Schwartz takes aim at a central tenet of western societies: freedom of choice. In Schwartz's estimation, choice has made us not freer but more paralyzed, not happier but more dissatisfied. Renata Salecl - The Paradox of Choice - an RSA video Fusing sociology, psychoanalysis and punishments, philosophy, Professor Renata Salecl shows that individual choice is rarely based on a simple rational decision with a predictable outcome. Baba Shiv: Sometimes it's good to life and adventures jane give up the driver's seat - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Over the years, research has shown a counterintuitive fact about human nature: That sometimes, having too much choice makes us less happy. This may even be true when it comes to medical treatment. Baba Shiv shares a fascinating study that measures why choice opens the apa referencing door to doubt, and life and adventures, suggests that ceding control -- especially on life-or-death decisions -- may be the best thing for us. Game Theory .net - a resource for pronunciation educators and students of of calamity jane game theory - with online interactive materials, syllabi, etc. Courses at Sloan School of Management, available online as part of MIT OpenCourseWare Project - includes syllabi and course materials includes Game Theory for Managers.

Game Theory, from the journal Stanford Encyclopedia of life of calamity Philosophy. Risk intelligence: How to journal live with uncertainty, RSA video by Evans Risk intelligence expert Dylan Evans outlines a powerful form of and adventures of calamity jane thinking; one where the apa referencing journal same intuition seen in the best poker players can be effectively transferred to life jane business, politics and everyday life. Daniel Kahneman: The riddle of experience vs. Reference To Small And Medium! memory - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Using examples from vacations to colonoscopies, Nobel laureate and founder of behavioral economics Daniel Kahneman reveals how our experiencing selves and our remembering selves perceive happiness differently. This new insight has profound implications for and adventures economics, public policy -- and our own self-awareness. Widely regarded as the world's most influential living psychologist, Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel in adelie penguin pronunciation Economics for his pioneering work in behavioral economics -- exploring the of calamity irrational ways we make decisions about risk. Decisionmaking Theory ( local copy ), Marine Corps Doctrine Publication 6 the intuitive approach is more appropriate for the vast majority of Cleveland Design Competition typical tactical or operational decisions-decisions made in life and adventures of calamity the fluid, rapidly changing conditions of war when time and uncertainty are critical factors, and creativity is a desirable trait Improving CIA Analytic Performance: Strategic Warning ( local copy ), by Davis, occasional paper for CIA's Improving CIA Analytic Performance: Strategic Warning - includes discussion of Substantive Uncertainty and Strategic Warning and Analytic Tradecraft for Managing Substantive Uncertainty and Averting Strategic Surprise through Alternative Analysis

Expecting the Unexpected ( local copy ), by Frasqueri-Molina, in NASA's ASK magazine, issue 43, Summer 2011 - creating a mitigation plan to Bipolar Chemistry deal with unexpected risks The author developed a risk-mitigation plan to reestablish order from and adventures, chaos. Slavery In America! Remain calm. Halt the entire project or just the affected work momentarily and let everyone take a break. Immediately gather the resolution team, which consists of the project manager and any of the people who can offer solutions; meet privately. Assess risk impact. Brainstorm solutions. Life Of Calamity Jane! Choose a solution. Obtain project sponsor approval.

Communicate the solution to economics the entire team, resume project, resolve risk. A Framework for Military Decision Making under Risks ( abstract ) ( full copy ), by and adventures jane Schultz, School of Advanced Airpower Studies (SAAS) - includes discussion of Eisenhower's decision regarding Operation Market Garden - see especially Chapter 2, Military Decision Making and Guide Small and Medium Enteprises Essay, Prospect Theory - Complex vs. Complicated Eric Berlow: Simplifying complexity - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Ecologist Eric Berlow doesn't feel overwhelmed when faced with complex systems. He knows that more information can lead to a better, simpler solution. Illustrating the tips and and adventures of calamity, tricks for breaking down big issues, he distills an overwhelming infographic on U.S. strategy in Afghanistan to a few elementary points. Systemic Operational Design: Learning and Adapting in Complex Missions ( local copy ), by Cleveland Competition Essay de Czege, Military Review , Jan-Feb 2009 Nearly all missions this century will be complex, and the kind of thinking we have called operational art is jane, often now required at battalion level. Fundamentally, operational art requires balancing design and apa referencing, planning while remaining open to learning and adapting quickly to change. And Adventures Of Calamity! Design is Design Competition, not a new idea. Command has always entailed responsibility for designing operations while penetrating complexity and framing problems that planners have to life of calamity jane solve.

Individual ability to learn effectively, adapt rapidly and Reference to Small and Medium, appropriately, and to solve problems has always been self-evidently valuable to commanders. Yet, collectively, a commands overall quality of design, learning, and adaptation is and adventures jane, what determines results. Military leaders may value individual creativity, critical thinking, continuous learning, and adaptability in their staffs and Brain, subordinate commanders, but individual traits do not necessarily add up to of calamity collective abilities needed for adelie the best outcomes. Complicated versus complex systems. Life Jane! Merely complicated systems are composed of positive economics numerous parts and life and adventures jane, structures, all logically separable from their environment. Reference Small Enteprises Essay! An example would be the system for deploying units on a time table for an operation like D-day. Such a schedule could be accurately analyzed in the abstract. Life Jane! Complex systems are made up of dynamic, interactive, and adaptive elements that cannot be separated from interaction with their environments.

The significant elements of complex systems are human beings and their relationships. An example would be the action-reaction interplay of the various actors in cooperation and contention on D-day. Analysis could never predict the relationships that were the most important part of the flow of events. Where merely complicated systems require mostly deduction and analysis (formal logic of breaking into parts), complexity requires inductive and abductive reasoning for diagnostics and synthesis (the informal logic of making new wholes of parts). Apa Referencing Journal! Because the elements of complex systems we care most about are human ones, making sense of life and adventures jane relationships requires hypothetical synthesis in the form of maps or narratives. Such maps and narratives evolve as informal products that reflect a dimly perceived truth at a moment of understanding in Cleveland Essay time. To make the best sense of life and adventures of calamity human relationships, interactions, trends, and propensities, military commands have to adopt a habitually skeptical approach to such non-deductive conclusions. Journal! Such habituation implies a new intellectual culture that balances design and and adventures of calamity jane, planning while evincing an appreciation for the dynamic flow of human factors and punishments, a bias toward perpetual learning and adapting. Adding to the Toolkit: Three Conceptual Tradeoffs ( local copy ), by Austin, SAMS paper, AY10 This monograph shows how understanding three conceptual tradeoffs of complex versus complicated, complexity at and adventures jane, large-scale versus fine-scale, and positive economics, exploration of potential problems versus exploitation of of calamity jane known solutions can help the Essay military practitioner better learn, anticipate and adapt to difficult problems.

It does so by defining the three conceptual tradeoffs and then applying them to Operation Iraqi Freedom for the United States in 2003 and jane, the Israeli incursion into Southern Lebanon by the Israeli Defense Forces in 2006. These difficult operations involved conventional, guerilla, counterinsurgency and irregular operations that provide two relevant examples to help the military practitioner better prepare for 21st century operations. Being a complicated or complex problem does not imply that one is easier or harder to manage than the other. They are just different. Complicated problems are problems that can be reduced and then reassembled into a whole based solely on their parts. They are understandable, controllable and Brain, more predictable than complex problems. Life And Adventures! Organizations do best with complicated problems when they focus on internal efficiency and optimization. Complex problems are not as predictable due to interdependencies and feedback. Organizations that learn, evolve, and adapt with distributed command and control manage them best. Although the ends may be the same, the ways and means to solve complex versus complicated problems are different. To help understand how organizations orient towards complex problems, the scientist William Ross Ashby created a useful concept called the Law of Requisite Variety.

It states that a problem can only be controlled if the variety of the controller matches the variety of the slavery punishments in america situation to be controlled. Put another way, the complexity of life a task must be matched by the complexity of a system trying to perform the task effectively. Much as hierarchically controlled organizations are able to focus on efficiency and optimization, the more distributed the apa referencing journal command and control of an organization, the less efficient it becomes, despite its potential ability to and adventures jane manage more complexity. Hierarchical and distributed command and control systems therefore involve important tradeoffs, each bringing its own unique strengths and weaknesses. TED videos Eric Berlow: Simplifying complexity - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Ecologist Eric Berlow doesn't feel overwhelmed when faced with complex systems. He knows that more information can lead to a better, simpler solution.

Illustrating the tips and adelie penguin, tricks for breaking down big issues, he distills an overwhelming infographic on U.S. strategy in Afghanistan to life of calamity jane a few elementary points. To Small And Medium! George Whitesides: Toward a science of simplicity - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Simplicity: We know it when we see it -- but what is it, exactly? In this funny, philosophical talk, George Whitesides chisels out an answer. Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on life of calamity YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Economics writer Tim Harford studies complex systems -- and finds a surprising link among the successful ones: they were built through trial and error. Positive! In this sparkling talk from TEDGlobal 2011, he asks us to embrace our randomness and start making better mistakes.

The Decision-Making Process for Complex Situations in a Complex Environment, by Benner and Benner, First chapter in Burstein, F. and Holsapple, C.W. (Eds). Handbook on Decision Support Systems. New York: Springer-Verlag (2008) While all decisions are a guess about the future, as complexity builds upon complexity decision-makers must increasingly rely on their intuition and life and adventures of calamity jane, judgment. Positive! This chapter explores the decision-making process for complex situations in a complex environment (complex adaptive messes) in terms of: laying the and adventures groundwork for decision-making, understanding and economics, exploring complex situations, discussing human additive factors, preparing for the decision process and mechanisms for influencing complex situations. Laying the groundwork introduces the concepts of emergence, the butterfly effect, the tipping point, feedback loops and power laws. Life Of Calamity! Mechanisms for influencing complex situations include structural adaptation, boundary management, absorption, optimum complexity, simplification, sense and respond, amplification, and seeding. The authors forward that decision-makers may be able to Essay construct a strategy that guides problem resolution through a sequence of decisions and life, actions leading toward an acceptable solution. Leading Complex Projects in and Medium Enteprises Essay the DoD ( local copy ), by Meier, in and adventures of calamity jane Defense AT L , May-June 2013 [AT L = Acquisition, Technology Logistics] There is a quote from Albert Einstein that is Cleveland Design Competition, very relevant to complex projects: Any intelligent fool can make things bigger and life and adventures of calamity, more complex. . It takes a touch of geniusand a lot of courageto move in the opposite direction. In many cases, it is Enteprises, organizations, agencies, and senior committees that make projects bigger and more complex than they need to be. My hope is and adventures jane, that this article will provide leaders of complex projects with the data and the courage to reduce complexity and deliver complex projects within scope, cost, and schedule. Leadership and Systems Thinking ( local copy ), by Reed, in Defense AT L , May-June 2006 [AT L = Acquisition, Technology Logistics] The Department of Defense is Cleveland Competition, a large and complex social system with many interrelated parts. As with any system of this type, when changes are made to life jane one part, many others are affected in a cascading and often unpredictable manner.

Thus, organizational decisions are fraught with second- and third-order effects that result in unintended consequences. Fire and forget approaches are rarely sufficient and positive economics, are sometimes downright harmful. Peter Senge submits, in The Fifth Discipline , that systems thinking provides just the type of discipline and toolset needed to and adventures of calamity jane encourage the Reference to Small Essay seeing of interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of change rather than static snapshots. Senge argues that this shift of mind is life of calamity, necessary to deal with the complexities of slavery in america dynamic social systems. Peirce, Pragmatism, and The Right Way of Thinking ( local copy ), by Campbell, Sandia National Labs, Aug 2011 Peirce is known as the founder of the philosophy of of calamity pragmatism and these lectures, given near the end of Bipolar Chemistry his life, represent his mature thoughts on the philosophy. Peirces decomposition of thinking into abduction, deduction, and induction is among the important points in the lectures. Adaptive Peircean Decision Aid Project Summary Assessments ( local copy ), by Senglaub, Sandia National Laboratories, Dec 2006 Abstract - This effort's objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for life and adventures of calamity use principally in combat environments but also in any complex information terrain.

The technologies required included formal concept analysis for economics knowledge representation and life and adventures jane, information operations, Peircean reasoning to support hypothesis generation, Mills canons to begin defining information operators that support the first two technologies and co-evolutionary game theory to provide the environment / domain to assess predictions from the reasoning engines. Essay! The intended application domain is the IED problem because of life and adventures of calamity its inherent evolutionary nature. While a fully functioning integrated algorithm was not achieved the Chemistry Essay hybridization and demonstration of the life of calamity jane technologies was accomplished and demonstration of utility provided for a number of ancillary queries. Slavery In America! Figure 1 [on PDF page 5] shows a decision making paradigm The reasoning engine is based on C.S. Peirces model of scientific inquiry. This philosophical construct provides the foundation for life and adventures how we as humans reason about apa referencing, situations new to us. This model consists of three reasoning capabilities; Abduction, deduction and induction. A crude way of life and adventures of calamity looking at this suite of logic is abduction provides plausible hypotheses to explain an observation, deduction provides a basis for selecting from that set of hypotheses, and induction is the means to validate the hypothesis selected. Bringing Intelligence About: Practitioners Reflect on Best Practices ( local copy ), ed. by Swenson, Joint Military Intelligence College, 2003 Reasoning: The ability to reason is what permits humans to process information and adelie pronunciation, formulate explanations, to assign meaning to observed phenomena.

It is by reasoning that analysts transform information into intelligence, in these three ways: 1. Induction: Inductive reasoning combines separate fragments of information, or specific answers to problems, to form general rules or conclusions. For example, using induction, a child learns to associate the color red with heat and heat with pain, and then to jane generalize these associations to new situations. Rigorous induction depends upon to Small, demonstrating the validity of causal relationships between observed phenomena, not merely associating them with each other. 2. Deduction: Deductive reasoning applies general rules to specific problems to arrive at of calamity jane, conclusions. Analysts begin with a set of rules and use them as a basis for interpreting information. For example, an analyst who follows the nuclear weapons program of a country might notice that a characteristic series of Small and Medium Enteprises events preceded the last nuclear weapons test. Upon seeing evidence that those same events are occurring again, the analyst might deduce that a second nuclear test is imminent. Of Calamity! However, this conclusion would be made cautiously, since deduction works best in closed systems such as mathematics, making it of limited use in forecasting human behavior. 3. Abduction: Abductive reasoning describes the adelie pronunciation thought process that accompanies insight or intuition. And Adventures Of Calamity Jane! When the information does not match that expected, the analyst asks why?, thereby generating novel hypotheses to explain given evidence that does not readily suggest a familiar explanation.

For example, given two shipping manifests, one showing oranges and lemons being shipped from Venezuela to Florida, and the other showing carnations being shipped from Delaware to Colombia, abductive reasoning is what enables the analyst to take an analytic leap and ask, Why is citrus fruit being sent to the worldwide capital of citrus farming, while carnations are being sent to the worlds primary exporter of that product? What is really going on here? Thus, abduction relies on the analysts preparation and experience to suggest possible explanations that must then be tested. Bipolar Brain! Abduction generates new research questions rather than solutions. Manual of Job-Related Thinking Skills ( local copy ), Department of Homeland Security - including deductive reasoning, reasoning with sets, inductive reasoning about real-world events, and statistical reasoning - includes quizzes throughout. Statistics and Trace Evidence: The Tyranny of Numbers ( local copy ), by jane Houck, in Forensic Science Communications , FBI - discusses induction and deduction and their application in establishing evidence - see especially the section How Do We Know All Ravens Are Black? quick definitions at Bipolar Brain, an NIH site listing desired job skills Deductive Reasoning - Able to and adventures apply general rules to specific problems to come up with logical answers, including deciding whether an answer makes sense. Inductive Reasoning - Able to combine separate pieces of information, or specific answers to economics problems, to form general rules or conclusions. This includes coming up with a logical explanation for life why seemingly unrelated events occur together.

Janusian Thinking and Acting ( local copy ), by Paparone and Crupi, in adelie penguin Military Review , Jan-Feb 2002 The authors maintain that the of calamity current U.S. approach to military operations-strategic, operational, and tactical-is too linear for positive today's contemporary operating environment. They argue that future warfighters must move beyond linear thought and action to a realm of life and adventures thinking and acting that recognizes and accepts paired yet opposite ideas and actions Instead of ruling out economics, alternative hypotheses, Janusian thinking calls on us to embrace contradictions as naturally occurring phenomena. When we create insights for thinking and acting from the Janusian framework, we achieve remarkable explanatory power over the nature of human information processing. The seats of reason? An imaging study of deductive and inductive reasoning, by Goel et al, Dept of Psychology, York U., North York, Ontario, CA -- abstract posted by National Library of Medicine. We carried out a neuroimaging study to test the neurophysiological predictions made by different cognitive models of reasoning. Ten normal volunteers performed deductive and inductive reasoning tasks while their regional cerebral blood flow pattern was recorded using [15O]H2O PET imaging. In the control condition subjects semantically comprehended sets of three sentences. In the of calamity deductive reasoning condition subjects determined whether the third sentence was entailed by the first two sentences.

In the inductive reasoning condition subjects reported whether the third sentence was plausible given the first two sentences. Penguin Pronunciation! The deduction condition resulted in activation of the left inferior frontal gyrus (Brodmann areas 45, 47). The induction condition resulted in activation of a large area comprised of the left medial frontal gyrus, the left cingulate gyrus, and the left superior frontal gyrus (Brodmann areas 8, 9, 24, 32). Life! Induction was distinguished from deduction by the involvement of the medial aspect of the left superior frontal gyrus (Brodmann areas 8, 9). These results are consistent with cognitive models of journal reasoning that postulate different mechanisms for inductive and deductive reasoning and view deduction as a formal rule-based process. PMID: 9175134 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE] Deductive Logic, by St. George Stock, posted by and adventures jane Project Gutenberg. Counterfactual Reasoning Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists, and Decision Makers ( local copy ), by Hendrickson, The Proteus Monograph Series , Oct 2008 Counterfactual reasoning is the process of evaluating conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., What If statements). Adelie! These alternatives can be either past possibilities (e.g., If the and adventures of calamity jane United States had not abolished the Iraqi army in 2003, then the Iraqi insurgency would have been significantly smaller in 2005) or future possibilities (e.g., If Iran had nuclear weapons, then it would provide this technology to Cleveland Essay Hezbollah). Counterfactuals are essential to of calamity intelligence analysis because they are implicit in all strategic assessments.

Counterfactual claims are widespread among our national security analysts, strategists, and decision makers. Slavery Punishments In America! Unfortunately, this is not widely recognized. Furthermore, there is no comprehensive model of counterfactual reasoning to which anyone may turn if they do become aware of the ubiquitous nature of counterfactuals within intelligence and national security. Instead, there are several fragmented approaches in philosophy, logic, history, political science, and psychology. To make matters worse, none of life jane these approaches has been applied to the unique challenges of intelligence and security. In response, this work seeks to demonstrate both the structure and pronunciation, the significance of counterfactual reasoning. It offers not only the first complete system of life of calamity counterfactual reasoning (of which this author is aware), but the punishments in america first one specifically designed to and adventures address the and Medium Enteprises domain of life intelligence analysis and national security. Apa Referencing! Furthermore, this work proposes three major claims about the place of counterfactual reasoning in life analysis and strategy. Therefore, this work is not only intended to serve as an Reference Small and Medium Enteprises Essay, education in counterfactual reasoning, but also as an exhortation to counterfactual reasoning. First Major Proposal (The Strategic Presumption of Counterfactuals): All strategies (and analyses of them) are grounded in a series of counterfactual claims about alternate possibilities, their consequences, and the relationships between them.

Second Major Proposal (The Systematic Potential of Counterfactuals): Major extant methods for assessing alternate possibilities, their consequences, and the relationships between them may be viewed as ultimately not distinct, but as aspects of a single processcounterfactual reasoning. Third Major Proposal (The Structural Priority of Counterfactuals): All assessment of life and adventures jane alternate possibilities, their consequences, and the relationships between them should ultimately be conditional (as it is in apa referencing counterfactual reasoning). Thinking, Fast and Slow , by Kahneman, 2011 Book review of Thinking, Fast and Slow , by Kahneman ( local copy ), review by Babetski, in life and adventures of calamity CIA Studies in Intelligence Vol. 56, No. 2 Kahneman, who won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for Small Enteprises his work with Tversky on prospect theory, also highlights the best work of other researchers throughout the book.

Thinking, Fast and Slow introduces no revolutionary new material, but it is a masterpiece because of the way Kahneman weaves existing research together. System 1, or fast thinking, operates automatically and quickly with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control. Life Of Calamity Jane! System 2, or slow thinking, allocates attention to the mental activities that demand effort, such as complex computations and conscious, reasoned choices about what to think and what to Cleveland Design do. Life And Adventures Jane! Kahneman focuses much of the book on the interactions of System 1 and System 2 and the problems inherent in those interactions. Both systems are on when we are awake. System 1 runs automatically and pronunciation, effortlessly but System 2 idles, because using it requires effort and is tiring. System 1 generates impressions and feelings, which become the source of System 2s explicit beliefs and deliberate choices. Life Of Calamity Jane! System 1, when it encounters something it cannot quickly understand and apa referencing, did not expect (in other words, a surprise), enlists System 2 to life and adventures make sense of the anomaly. The alerted System 2 takes charge, overriding System 1s automatic reactions. System 2 always has the Cleveland Design last word when it chooses to assert it. Daniel Kahneman: The riddle of experience vs. Life And Adventures Jane! memory - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Using examples from vacations to apa referencing colonoscopies, Nobel laureate and founder of behavioral economics Daniel Kahneman reveals how our experiencing selves and our remembering selves perceive happiness differently.

This new insight has profound implications for and adventures jane economics, public policy -- and our own self-awareness. Widely regarded as the world's most influential living psychologist, Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel in Economics for his pioneering work in behavioral economics -- exploring the irrational ways we make decisions about journal, risk. Integrating Fast and Slow Cognitive Processes ( local copy ), by Kennedy and Bugajska, for the Naval Research Laboratory, 2010 Human reactions appear to be controlled by two separate types of mental processes: one fast, automatic, and unconscious and the other slow, deliberate, and conscious. Life And Adventures Of Calamity Jane! With the attention in the literature focused on the taxonomy of the two processes, there is little discussion of how they interact. In this paper, we focus on modeling the slower process's ability to inhibit the fast process. We present computational cognitive models in Reference and Medium Essay which different strategies allow a human to consciously inhibit an undesirable fast response. Gladwell, Malcolm. Blink: The Power of Thinking without Thinking . New York: Little, Brown, 2005 Book review of life of calamity Gladwell's Blink ( local copy ), by Norton, in Naval War College Review , Winter 2006. Intuition The intuitive mind is Reference Enteprises Essay, a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the life and adventures jane servant and Essay, has forgotten the life jane gift.

See tactical decision games on the Simuations page, contrasting intuitive and analytic approaches. See also - Recognition-Primed Decision Model - references in the Decision-Making section above. How We Decide ( local copy ), by Schmitt, in Design Competition Designing TDGs: A Tactical Decision. Games Workbook , Marine Corps University, 26 Apr 1996 Not surprisingly, the research revealed that proficient decision makers rarely make decisions by concurrent option comparison. Instead they use their intuition to recognize the essence of a given situation and to tell them what appropriate action to take.

In fact, separate studies by Dr. Gary Klein and others conclude that decision makers in a variety of fields use the analytical apaproach to decision making less than 10 percent of the time and employ intuitive techniques over life of calamity 90 percent of the time. Custer in economics Cyberspace ( local copy ), by and adventures Gompert and Kugler, Defense Horizons number 51, Feb 2006 When conditions are complex and dynamic, time is Bipolar Essay, short, and critical information is available, the key to making good decisions is to blend intuition with reasoningmore specifically, reliable intuition with timely reasoning . From The Personal Relevance of life of calamity Great Campaigns - by Bird, 22 Feb 2001, Command and General Staff Officer's Course Carl Von Clausewitz explains that events in warfare are surrounded by positive uncertainty, and and adventures jane, that there are few universal truths. Because of this, leaders must sort through this fog to find the truth, often a daunting endeavor thats permeated by pronunciation chance. The commander must sift through this information and decide what pieces are relevant and require action. Clausewitz specifically refers to the capability of the mind to discriminate information allowing quick, correct decisions. He describes this ability as coup doeil, the quick recognition of a truth that the mind would ordinarily miss or would perceive only after long study and reflection . 2 Napoleon faced such a scenario in the battles of Jena-Auerstadt.

With limited information, he turned an entire field army in place to life and adventures seek decisive battle with the Prussians and won the Bipolar Chemistry day. [ 2 Carl Von Clausewitz, On War , ed. and trans. by Michael Howard and Peter Paret, (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976), p. 100-102. ] Intuition: an Imperative of Command ( local copy ), by life and adventures jane Rogers, in Military Review - examines relevance of intuition to Reference to Small and Medium Essay decision making in and adventures jane the context of warfighting on the modern battlefield. Decisionmaking Theory ( local copy ), Marine Corps Doctrine Publication 6 the intuitive approach is more appropriate for the vast majority of typical tactical or operational decisions-decisions made in the fluid, rapidly changing conditions of war when time and uncertainty are critical factors, and creativity is a desirable trait Note 18. Intuitive decisionmaking more appropriate for the vast majority of tactical/operational decisions: A 1989 study by Gary A. Klein (based on 1985 observations) estimated that decision makers in a variety of disciplines use intuitive methods 87 percent of the time and analytical methods 13 percent of the time. Evidence now suggests that this study was actually biased in favor of analysis . More recent studies estimate the breakdown at more nearly 95 percent intuitive to 5 percent analytical.

G. A. Klein, Recognition-Primed Decisions in William B. Adelie Penguin Pronunciation! Rouse (ed.), Advances in life jane Man-Machine System Research (Greenwich, CT: Jai Press, 1989); G. L. Kaempf, S. Penguin! Wolf, M. L. Thordsen, and G. Life Jane! Klein, Decision Making in the Aegis Combat Information Center (Fairborn, OH: Klein Associates, 1992); R. Pascual and S. Henderson, Evidence of Bipolar Brain Essay Naturalistic Decision Making in Command and life and adventures jane, Control in C. Penguin! Zsambok and G. Klein (eds.), Naturalistic Decision Making , forthcoming publication (Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates); Kathleen Louise Mosier, Decision Making in the Air Transport Flight Deck: Process and Product , unpublished dissertation (Berkeley, CA: University of California, 1990). Decision Making Theory ( local copy ), Naval Doctrine Publication 6, Naval Command and and adventures, Control The intuitive approach is Cleveland Competition, clearly more appropriate for the fluid, rapidly changing environment of combat, when time and uncertainty are critical factors. War in life and adventures of calamity the Pits: Marine-Futures Traders Wargame ( local copy ), NDU Strategic Forum 61, by West Marine generals and journal, colonels vs futures traders in decisionmaking wargame The traders' OODA loop, executed at life, much higher speed, is ISAA: Information, Sort by Priority, Act, Assess Virtual Stress ( local copy ), in Marines Online , senior Marines vs futures traders in decision making wargame. Intuitive people worse at detecting lies, by Young, NewScientist.com, 18 Mar 2002 People who think of themselves as being intuitive make worse lie detectors than those who do not trust in slavery punishments a gut instinct, according to new research. One possible explanation is that intuitives in fact rely on life of calamity jane common misconceptions about how to Chemistry spot a liar, he says. Situation Awareness, Situational Awareness To see, to hear, means nothing. To recognize (or not to recognize) means everything. Individual Situation Awareness ( local copy ), course module from of calamity, NOAA Situation Awareness Definition (from Mica Endsley, 1988) Level 1 - Perception of the elements in the environment within a volume of space Level 2 - Comprehension of their meaning Level 3 - Projection of their status in the near future. Situation Awareness Demons: the Enemies of Situation Awareness ( local copy ), course module from Cleveland Competition Essay, NOAA Discusses the eight demons laid out by Endsley et al, in Designing for Situation Awareness Attentional Tunneling Requisite Memory Trap Workload, Anxiety, Fatigue, and Other Stressors (WAFOS) Data Overload Misplaced Salience Complexity Creep Errant Mental Models Out-of-the-Loop Syndrome. Ye Olde Brain, and Its Workings The destiny of every human being is decided by what goes on inside his skull when confronted with what goes on outside his skull. I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.

Daniel Amen - Change your brain, change your life, a TEDx talk Change your Brain, Change your Life. Life! Revelations based on studying 63,000 brain images across 90 countries over 20 years. How Brain imaging can change paradigms and our understanding of healthy life, no matter where we live. Steve Ramirez and Xu Liu: A mouse. A laser beam. A manipulated memory - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on YouTube if TED videos are blocked) Can we edit the content of our memories? Its a sci-fi-tinged question that Steve Ramirez and Xu Liu are asking in their lab at MIT.

Essentially, the pair shoot a laser beam into the brain of a living mouse to Cleveland activate and manipulate its memory. And Adventures Jane! In this unexpectedly amusing talk they share not only how, but -- more importantly -- why they do this. (Filmed at apa referencing journal, TEDxBoston.) From Bench to Bunker: How a 1960s discovery in neuroscience spawned a military project, by and adventures Bardin, in in america The Chronicle of Higher Education , 9 July 2012 The man has a machine strapped to his head, an array of life electrodes called an electroencephalogram, or EEG, which is recording his brain activity as each image skips by. It then sends the brain-activity data wirelessly to adelie penguin a large computer. The computer has learned what the man's brain activity looks like when he sees one of the visual targets, and, based on that information, it quickly reshuffles the images. When the man sorts back through the life jane hundreds of imagesmost without structures, but some withalmost all the ones with buildings in them pop to the front of the pack. His brain and economics, the computer have done good work. That display was a demonstration of life a new technology being developed through a collaboration between the Cleveland Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the military's research arm, and a private company called Neuromatters, which was founded by life of calamity a team led by Reference Guide to Small Enteprises the Columbia University bioengineer Paul Sajda. The hope is that, in the near future, military analysts might use the of calamity technology to eliminate worthless images in seconds, speeding up their review of satellite images by orders of punishments magnitude. Life Of Calamity! By the looks of it, it's working. Paolo Cardini: Forget multitasking, try monotasking, a talk from TED.com - if TED site is blocked, you may be able to watch it on YouTube or one of the other sites People arent just cooking anymore -- theyre cooking, texting, talking on the phone, watching YouTube and Cleveland Design, uploading photos of the awesome meal they just made.

Designer Paolo Cardini questions the efficiency of our multitasking world and makes the jane case for -- gasp -- monotasking. Amy Cuddy: Your body language shapes who you are, a talk from TED.com - if TED site is blocked, you may be able to watch it on YouTube or one of the other sites Body language affects how others see us, but it may also change how we see ourselves. Social psychologist Amy Cuddy shows how power posing -- standing in apa referencing a posture of confidence, even when we dont feel confident -- can affect testosterone and cortisol levels in the brain, and might even have an life and adventures of calamity jane, impact on our chances for success. Amy Cuddys research on body language reveals that we can change other peoples perceptions and even our own body chemistry simply by changing body positions. New TED Book: Brain Power, by Tiffany Shlain - announcement includes an overview video Discusses items such as the fact that a child's brain has 10 times as many connections as the entire internet. Iain McGilchrist: The divided brain - a Best of the Guide Small and Medium Web talk featured by and adventures of calamity TED Psychiatrist Iain McGilchrist describes the real differences between the left and right halves of the human brain. Positive! It's not simply emotion on the right, reason on jane the left, but something far more complex and economics, interesting.

A Best of the Web talk from RSA Animate. Scott Fraser: Why eyewitnesses get it wrong, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on your computer) Scott Fraser studies how humans remember crimes -- and bear witness to life and adventures of calamity jane them. In this powerful talk, which focuses on a deadly shooting at sunset, he suggests that even close-up eyewitnesses to a crime can create memories they could not have seen. Why? Because the brain abhors a vacuum. Tan Le: A headset that reads your brainwaves, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on to Enteprises your computer) Tan Le's astonishing new computer interface reads its user's brainwaves, making it possible to control virtual objects, and even physical electronics, with mere thoughts (and a little concentration). She demos the headset, and of calamity, talks about Reference Guide to and Medium, its far-reaching applications. Rebecca Saxe: How we read each other's minds, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on your computer) Sensing the motives and feelings of others is a natural talent for humans. But how do we do it? Here, Rebecca Saxe shares fascinating lab work that uncovers how the brain thinks about other peoples' thoughts -- and judges their actions.

Kwabena Boahen on a computer that works like the brain, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on and adventures jane your computer) Researcher Kwabena Boahen is looking for ways to mimic the brain's supercomputing powers in silicon -- because the adelie penguin messy, redundant processes inside our heads actually make for a small, light, superfast computer. Life And Adventures Of Calamity Jane! Diane Benscoter on how cults rewire the brain, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on YouTube if the adelie TED.com version won't run on your computer) Diane Benscoter spent five years as a Moonie. She shares an insider's perspective on the mind of a cult member, and life jane, proposes a new way to in america think about life and adventures of calamity, today's most troubling conflicts and extremist movements. Bipolar Chemistry! talks about life jane, viral memetic infections and Design Essay, compromised emotional immune systems Al Seckel says our brains are mis-wired, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on life and adventures jane YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on your computer) Al Seckel, a cognitive neuroscientist, explores the apa referencing journal perceptual illusions that fool our brains. Loads of eye tricks help him prove that not only are we easily fooled, we kind of like it. Steven Pinker on language and thought, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on your computer) In an exclusive preview of his book The Stuff of life Thought, Steven Pinker looks at language and positive economics, how it expresses what goes on in our minds -- and how the life of calamity jane words we choose communicate much more than we realize.

Keith Barry does brain magic, a talk from TED.com (but you may need to watch it on YouTube if the TED.com version won't run on apa referencing your computer) First, Keith Barry shows us how our brains can fool our bodies -- in a trick that works via podcast too. Then he involves the audience in some jaw-dropping (and even a bit dangerous) feats of brain magic. The Secret Powers of Time, video by Zimbardo Professor Philip Zimbardo reveals how our individual perspective on time affects our work, health and well-being. Mind Reading Machine on life of calamity CBS Reads Your Thoughts - (10 out of 10 at guessing what a scanned person is thinking about) also reading/assessing intentions and being able to assess if youve been somewhere before (for example, when you were robbing the house) and positive economics, neural marketing and brain patterns indicating various emotions. Science Nation - Mind Reading Computer System May Help People with Locked-in Syndrome Imagine living a life in which you are completely aware of the jane world around you but you're prevented from engaging in positive economics it because you are completely paralyzed.

Even speaking is life and adventures of calamity jane, impossible. For an economics, estimated 50,000 Americans this is a harsh reality. It's called locked-in syndrome, a condition in which people with normal cognitive brain activity suffer severe paralysis, often from injuries or an illness such as Lou Gehrig's disease. And Adventures Jane! Boston University neuroscientist Frank Guenther works with the adelie penguin National Science Foundation's Center of Excellence for Learning in Education, Science and Technology (CELEST), which is made up of eight private and public institutions, mostly in life and adventures jane the Boston area. Cleveland! Its purpose is to synthesize the experimental modeling and technological approaches to research in order to understand how the life of calamity brain learns as a whole system. In particular, Guenther's research is looking at how brain regions interact, with the hope of melding mind and machine, and ultimately making life much better for people with locked-in syndrome. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis ( local copy ), by Heuer, 1999, for CIA -- very good examination of many elements of journal critical thinking and life and adventures, mental processes, with examples ( PDF version ) Semiotic Fundamentals of Information Processing in Human Brain ( local copy ), by Perlovsky, Air Force Research Lab The paper discusses a mathematical nature of punishments signs and symbols, and and adventures of calamity, relates it to punishments in america information processing and understanding, structure of the mind and brain, learning, and pattern recognition. Videos for Thinking Innovating Many videos from the and adventures jane following sources are scattered throughout this website.

No endorsement of ideas or opinions is implied for the Air Force or any US Government agency/organization. These are for slavery your personal interests and education only. TED talks - over 1,200 videos, from 3 minutes to life of calamity jane 25 minutes, by leading thinkers and developers in many fields of study TED is a nonprofit devoted to slavery in america Ideas Worth Spreading. It started out (in 1984) as a conference bringing together people from three worlds: Technology, Entertainment, Design. Since then its scope has become ever broader. And Adventures Of Calamity! if the TED website copy of the video doesn't play on your computer, cut and paste the title of the talk into a search engine to find the apa referencing YouTube copy or other copy which may play. The RSA (Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and and adventures of calamity jane, Commerce) an enlightenment organisation committed to punishments in america finding innovative practical solutions to todays social challenges over 400 videos, animations, shorts, and more RSA Animate takes select speeches and adds entertaining animation effects. 99U - Insights on and adventures of calamity making ideas happen tips, articles, and videos At 99U, Behance's education arm, we focus on what happens after inspiration researching the Chemistry forces that truly push ideas to fruition.

Our profiles of proven idea makers, action-oriented tips, and annual conference are all designed to help you transform ideas from vision to reality. PopTech videos Were a global community of innovators, working together to expand the edge of change. Miscellaneous Thinking in a Foreign Language Makes Decisions More Rational, by Keim, in Wired online journal, Apr 2012 A series of of calamity experiments on more than 300 people from the U.S. and Korea found that thinking in Cleveland Competition a second language reduced deep-seated, misleading biases that unduly influence how risks and benefits are perceived. The researchers believe a second language provides a useful cognitive distance from automatic processes, promoting analytical thought and reducing unthinking, emotional reaction. Learning and Reasoning: The True Heart of the Mind ( local copy ), by and adventures of calamity jane Gunning, DARPATech2005 - mention of programs to develop cognitive systems that can reason.

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In what ways does gender shape the experience of mental illness? Women and mental health is a vast topic and and adventures jane, we do not presume to cover all aspects of it within the confines of this essay. We will, however, explore a number of Reference and Medium Enteprises relevant themes in some detail by particular reference to peer reviewed literature on the subject. In doing so, we recognise the fact that it is vital to make a critical assessment of the literature as, in any branch of of calamity medically related work, it is vital to acquire a firm evidence base. Slavery Punishments In America? (Berwick D 2005). Much of the literature that we have assessed for consideration amounts to life and adventures of calamity, little more than simple opinion on a subject, and as such, is apa referencing only of and adventures of calamity jane use as an opinion rather than a fact that has been subject to proper scientific scrutiny. (Green Britten 1998). Reference To And Medium Enteprises? In this essay we take note of opinions but aim to present verifiable facts. We do know that mental illness in the UK is associated with a significant burden of both disability and morbidity in general, and this will vary with both the severity of the illness at any given time and also the life of calamity, nature of the illness itself. (Annandale, E1998).

A number of positive studies have shown that, as a lifetime experience, nearly half of the population will suffer some kind of quantifiable psychological or psychiatric disorder. (Bayer, 1987) The actual incidence of morbidity is life and adventures jane hard to assess accurately. Firstly because doctors tend to under-diagnose positive psychiatric morbidity and secondly because there is slavery a general reluctance to seek medical help with this type of complaint. It has been suggested that only 40% of people with a significant mood, anxiety or substance misuse problem will actually seek help in the first year of the problem becoming apparent. (Boswell G Poland F 2004) In the context of this essay we should note that, in broad terms, the overall rates of life and adventures jane psychiatric disorder are approximately equal in both men and women, but the significant differences between the sexes are found in economics, the patterns of life jane how the positive economics, disorders manifest themselves. (Castle DJ et al 2001) It is also fair to comment that an examination of the literature seems to suggest that the morbidity which appears to be associated with mental disorders has been the subject of more attention and research than the actual determinants and and adventures of calamity jane, mechanisms that appear to be significant in both the promotion of Cleveland mental health, and protection against mental illness, together with those factors which appear to and adventures of calamity, give a degree of resilience against stress and other adversities which are gender specific. ( Rogers Pilgrim 2002). We do know that a number of psychiatric illnesses have different rates of presentation. Some, such as schizophrenia have gender differential modes of presentation and illness trajectory (Kornstein S Clayton A 2002). Just why should this be?

A number of authors point to various features of gender difference that may account for this difference. Castle (et al 2001) spend a large proportion of their book differentiating the male and female brain in journal, terms of the effect of testosterone on neurodevelopment. While this is and adventures undeniably a source of difference, it would appear that their argument rather falls apart when other authors point to the fact that the differences that we are considering here are actually better correlated with both gender and culture than actual biological sex. (Pattison 2001) Gender has much deeper socio-economic and cultural implications than simply a sexual consideration. Design? It is gender that is one of the prime determinants of the differential power and status factors that influence the degree of of calamity control that both men and women have over their socio-economic situation and social position in Cleveland Design Competition, their own cultural hierarchy.

This, in turn, determines both their susceptibility, and indeed their exposure, to significant mental health risks. Of Calamity? (Busfield J 1996) We have already alluded, in passing, to the differential incidence of various illnesses. We know that depression and anxiety related patterns of illness, together with those that have a significant element of somatosisation of Bipolar Brain their symptomatology, are more likely to occur in women than men with a ratio of about 3:1. Illnesses such as reactive (unipolar) depression is jane found to occur with double the frequency in women, when compared to men. Bipolar? This particular disease process is statistically the life of calamity jane, most common mental health problem that affects women, but it also tends to be more persistent in women both in terms of longevity of the episode and in adelie penguin, frequency of relapse. (APA 1994) Gender differences are also apparent when it comes to a consideration of substance abuse, however it is usual to find the reverse ratio in jane, most studies on the subject. Alcohol abuse and dependence will occur 2.5 times more frequently in men than women.

It is not certain whether these changes are primarily cultural or biological, as they do vary to a degree between different cultures, but the sex difference is Guide Enteprises generally found. (Kraemer S 2000) Unlike the unipolar depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, like schizophrenia, has no differential rate of presentation although there are defined differences in the disease trajectory in terms of life of calamity jane age at presentation, the punishments, frequency and nature of the first rank psychotic symptoms. This may have a bearing on the longer term sequelae such as social readjustment and long term disease process outcome. And Adventures Of Calamity? (Kaplan HI et al 1991) It is also a demonstrable fact that the degree of morbidity rises exponentially with multiple degrees of Bipolar Brain Essay comorbidity. Life And Adventures Jane? In studies on the subject, women outnumber men in this area as well. This consideration then begs the question, “just what are the gender specific different factors that determine mental health or the susceptibility to mental illness?” We have already suggested that many factors are not purely biological, and a number of different papers point to penguin pronunciation, the fact that many of the and adventures of calamity jane, triggers and stressor factors which can be associated with mental illness, are also gender specific. The gender based role in a particular society ( certainly in the UK), will produce different exposure to different stressors and negative life experiences.

Equally it will give different exposure to Bipolar Essay, the protective effect of a positive life experience. (Moynihan C 1998) We can cite specific examples in and adventures, this regard. Women are frequently the domestic target of Reference Guide to and Medium male-based violence. This factor is probably important in the fact that women have the life of calamity jane, highest incidence of post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).(Jewkes R 2002) There is still a gender gap in adelie penguin pronunciation, the earnings tables, both in total lifetime earnings and also in average earning levels. This implies that women tend to be less financially independent and more socio-economically deprived (on average) that males.

In many societies this is also translated into lower social status that the male and this is often also associated with fewer social freedoms - all of life and adventures which may be associated with an increasing psychological co-morbidity. (Gordon G et al 2001) There is apa referencing journal also the and adventures jane, consideration that in the majority of slavery cultures, it is the woman who typically bears the major impact of care in the family, not only of the children, but also of the elderly relatives, and this frequently produces constant and unremitting levels of stress, which again, is recognised as a major trigger for psychological morbidity. (Davies TW 1994) All of these factors, when considered collectively, appear to exert a significant influence on the overall patterns of gender specific distribution of psychiatric morbidity in the community at large. These factors are generally exacerbated (and the gender differences accentuated), when there are sudden and unpredicted fluctuations in the general income level or the stability of the life jane, social strata.(Murray M 1995). We have already alluded to the fact that the rates of diagnosis by the healthcare professionals tend to underestimate the adelie, true incidence of psychiatric morbidity in the community. It is likely that the healthcare professional can also skew the results in a different way. We know, from a number of life and adventures studies, that gender bias occurs in both the diagnosis and treatment of mental conditions.

Doctors have been shown to be more likely to make a diagnosis of depression in women than in men even when the cohorts have been previously matched in terms of symptom severity and Cleveland Design Essay, when the and adventures of calamity, present with matched symptoms. Doctors are also statistically more likely to prescribe psychotropic medication for women than for Brain Chemistry Essay, men. (Bhui K et al 1995), Why should this be? Part of the reason is that women have demonstrably different patterns of jane presentation of psychological morbidity than men. Women are more likely to be open and to disclose their problems to a healthcare professional than a man. Pronunciation? Women tend to disclose problems to a primary healthcare team professional (and therefore be treated in the community), whereas a man is statistically more likely to present to a secondary care specialist (which is possibly why men have a disproportionately high representation of and adventures of calamity inpatient care) (Boswell G Poland F 2004) This may be due to the general perception of the positive, gender stereotype. It is more “socially acceptable” for a man to have an alcohol problem. Some would argue that Dean Martin made a career out of his drinking.

Women are “expected” to be more emotionally labile than men, and the typical male stereotype is to be stoical and unflinching in the face of adversity. These patterns of behaviour in both the general public, as well as in the perceptions of healthcare professionals, go a long way towards perpetuating many of the gender inequalities that we have examined thus far. It is certainly possible that they may be responsible, at least in part, for the apparent varying susceptibility of the sexes to different illness patterns. (Bandarage A 1997) In this essay we have considered some of the evidence that related to the gender differences in the presentation and trajectory of mental illness. We note that the WHO recognises many of life and adventures these factors on a global scale and has put forward three factors that it considers to be protective in positive economics, the development of mental morbidity (especially depression). In the light of our discussion above, it can be seen that, although the WHO addresses the points generally to the whole population, they, arguably, have a greater relevance for women than men, certainly in our current culture in the UK.

Having sufficient autonomy to life and adventures, exercise some control in response to severe events. Access to some material resources that allow the possibility of making choices in the face of severe events. Psychological support from Cleveland Competition Essay, family, friends, or health providers is powerfully protective. We have established that women represent the greatest element of morbidity in the overall consideration of both psychiatric and psychological pathology. This may a real finding, but we note that there is a considerable element of bias in the figures, both from the differential rates of presentation and and adventures of calamity jane, also relative gender bias that appears to exist in the healthcare professionals in general.

There is also additional bias in the fact that women have a longer life expectancy than men and therefore have more “life chances” to present with psychiatric morbidity, quite apart from the pronunciation, fact that the morbidity rates increase with advancing age, primarily associated with the dementias and various organic brain syndromes (Russell D 1995). On a world wide basis, women are more susceptible to the destabilising effect of war, economic instability and natural disasters which add to the burden of negative life experiences that are a prime risk factor for the development of mental illness. (Brown GW 1978). We have also identified the fact that the woman’s position in her particular culture or society is also a very significant factor in life jane, generating gender differences. There are gender differences in society and Brain Essay, therefore it clearly comes as no surprise that these differences are reflected in the gender differences in health generally. The woman, in life and adventures of calamity, the majority of cultures is expected to assume a number of pronunciation different roles (sometimes simultaneously), each with their own pressures. Life And Adventures Of Calamity Jane? The unremitting role of the carer is apa referencing journal common and clearly a cause of and adventures of calamity jane chronic stress. This can be both combined with, and exacerbated by, situations of comparative poverty which again magnifies the effect of all of the negative stressors which can mitigate towards mental ill-health. Other factors such as sexual abuse can also play a gender specific role in the aetiology of mental illness. In the words of Bipolar Brain Essay Masson, (J.M. 1986) in his historical overview of the field of psychological disability:

There is a positive relationship between the frequency and jane, severity of such social factors and the frequency and severity of mental health problems in women. Severe life events that cause a sense of Design loss, inferiority, humiliation or entrapment can predict depression. Some authors point to the difficulty of communication of the patient with the life, healthcare professional. In areas where there are cultural or perceived socio-economic differences, it is accepted that this may be a significant factor (Platt, FW Gordon GH 1999). If difficulty of communication is a problem, the conscientious healthcare professional should endeavour to be aware of it and minimise it’s potential impact with strategies such as a translator or perhaps a more empathetic or understanding approach. Apa Referencing? One could hope that this would go some way to reducing the burden of life jane disclosure from a patient who may already have a significant burden of psychological illness themselves. All in all, we can conclude that the whole area of gender, in Brain, relation to mental health problems, is both difficult, multifactorial and life of calamity, complex. A significant amount of positive economics work has been done in this field, but there is life of calamity jane clearly scope for a great deal more.

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Szasz, Thomas S.(1971) The Manufacture of Madness. A Comparative Study of the Inquisition and jane, the Mental Health Movement. London: Routledge. 1971. If this essay isn't quite what you're looking for, why not order your own custom Sociology essay, dissertation or piece of coursework that answers your exact question? There are UK writers just like me on penguin pronunciation, hand, waiting to help you. Life And Adventures Of Calamity? Each of us is qualified to a high level in our area of expertise, and we can write you a fully researched, fully referenced complete original answer to your essay question.

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